Who should come to the majors and when? Who should be traded?

[Just Regular]

We'll see if some other Club offers Hicks a first-string role - I'd think that opportunity would mean something to him, and the time for him to keep that role in BAL is short.

Backup CF - Bradfield may be able to do that by next fall.     Can Mullins' legs hold up 4-5 months?     There's always McKenna.

If the Mariners are supposed to trade us some good pitcher with Hays or Santander part of the deal, why wouldn't they just take Hicks for the MLB minimum?

[SemperFi]

18 hours ago, MarCakes21 said:

I know many have weighed in but here's my 2 cents:

Frazier, Hicks, O'Hearn, Urias, Mateo gone - hopefully we get something back of slight value for O'Hearn/Mateo/Urias - could keep one of the IF until Holliday up.

Cowser up in a Hicks+ role.  He spells Hays against tough righties, gives Mullins 2 days off per week, and plays 2 days in right.

Kjerstad up as primary RF.  Sits against lefties for now

Santander as primary DH, plays RF against tough lefties.

Mountcastle as primary DH, sits against tough righties

 

Westburg as primary 3B until Mayo is ready with one of Urias/Mateo backup

Norby up as backup 2B/injury shuffle until Holliday ready - ideally traded though given the depth.

Ortiz as primary SS on OD - sorry not pushing out Gunnar

Holliday starts in minors - primary 2B after about a month.

Mayo - I hold him down until so he can be ROY eligible in 25.  Make him a late August callup.

Stowers - traded or kept down in case injuries to Hays/Cowser/Santader/Kjerstad

 

This pretty much pushes all the fielders up this year and maximizes your next 5 years.  You can see who works, and who needs to be traded off next year.  Also, if everyone works, you can move off of Hays/Santander/Mountcastle in a year.

I'm not sure Cowser fits that role-Hyde valued Hicks/McKenna in that spot for defense and Hick's switch-hitting for match ups.  I suspect Cowser will be fine eventually, but Heston has similar skills with plus power and at this point better D (from what I saw at Norfolk) and I think they like him more than Cowser in RF.  I don't think that the Orioles have any thoughts of playing Cowser as tentative as he was in CF 2X a week, so that leaves LF where Hayes with solid to premium D and a righty is embedded.  Cowser is MLB ready but I'm not sure where he fits, but guys break.

[SemperFi]

4 hours ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Hicks has a good eye but that’s all he offers at this point of his career. He’s now 34 years old and not an asset defensively. His numbers with the Orioles were entirely propped up by a .331 BABIP, way above his .273 career BABIP. His batted ball data indicates that was entirely fluky, he had a .208 xBA, .303 xSLG and .284 xwOBA on the season. (I can’t see how to separate those on Statcast to partial seasons for the Orioles vs. the Yankees, but with 75% of his PA coming for the Orioles those numbers were definitely still quite bad for the Orioles.) 

The Orioles got a good partial season out of Hicks. We can appreciate that and move on. There’s no reason to expect they should be able to again next year. He’ll likely get another major league deal for some team lacking in bench options that will appreciate his eye and veteranosity. The Orioles are not that team. They appreciate the eye and veteran experience as much as any team out there but have far too many quality young players competing for roster space and plate appearances to be allocating any to Hicks in 2024. 

I agree but suspect they will be looking for a similar skill set (SH, enough D to cover CF/RF, maybe speed) to fill that position and no one in the system fits that except possibly McKenna -Beavers is ideal not ready yet.

[Matt Bennett]

19 hours ago, MarCakes21 said:

I think everyone is crazy in the trade Hays category.  No one in this front office would trade Hays, given what he provides in his grit and defensive capability at home in LF.

Much more likely we trade Cowser/Kjerstad.

 

13 hours ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

So to re-sign Hicks, they are going to keep Cowser blocked in AAA and trade Urias?

There’s no need for Hicks unless they think that none of Hays, Cowser or even Mateo can back up CF. And even then, they could just keep McKenna instead of DFA’ing him. 

I don’t believe Hicks is a better CF than Hays or Cowser at this point of his career. He was a great pickup for the 2023 team but it doesn’t make sense to bring him back, even for the league minimum. 

Yeah, I don't see why we should work ourselves into knots to try and trade Hays or one of our top 25 prospects in all of baseball in Cowser/Kerstad in order to keep Hicks on the roster. It's much easier to let the 35 year old free agent walk. It's been a long time since Hicks put up the value that Hays did in 2021, 2022, or 2023. It can both be true that Hicks worked out but will not work out going forward and it's time to move on. I put much more stock into Hicks' last five years of play than 200 at-bats with the O's. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, SemperFi said:

I'm not sure Cowser fits that role-Hyde valued Hicks/McKenna in that spot for defense and Hick's switch-hitting for match ups.  I suspect Cowser will be fine eventually, but Heston has similar skills with plus power and at this point better D (from what I saw at Norfolk) and I think they like him more than Cowser in RF.  I don't think that the Orioles have any thoughts of playing Cowser as tentative as he was in CF 2X a week, so that leaves LF where Hayes with solid to premium D and a righty is embedded.  Cowser is MLB ready but I'm not sure where he fits, but guys break.

You are literally the first person who I’ve ever seen say that Kjerstad is better defensively than Cowser.  I haven’t seen enough of either to have an opinion on that, but I think you are in the minority on that view.  

[CaptainRedbeard]

2 hours ago, SemperFi said:

I agree but suspect they will be looking for a similar skill set (SH, enough D to cover CF/RF, maybe speed) to fill that position and no one in the system fits that except possibly McKenna -Beavers is ideal not ready yet.

Yeah, if they really don’t think that Hays or Cowser are acceptable in CF then that does require one bench spot goes to somebody who can play CF. But that could just be McKenna, or someone else from outside the organization. Hicks at age 34 after many years of leg injuries isn’t a proper CF himself any more. 

My preference is to use Hays in CF to spell Mullins, if Cowser is not up to it. Saves a roster spot and creates more corner OF opportunities for Kjerstad, Cowser, Norby, Westburg, Stowers, etc.

I also suspect that they may ask Mateo to do some proper work on playing CF in the offseason and in spring training. They threw him out in CF for a bit mid season and he took one hilariously poor route on a ball in a big moment and they shut that experiment down after that. But he has the tools and past experience playing CF and adding that to his game certainly would expand his utility as a bench piece and perhaps extend his time on the Orioles before getting pushed out.

[AnythingO's]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

You are literally the first person who I’ve ever seen say that Kjerstad is better defensively than Cowser.  I haven’t seen enough of either to have an opinion on that, but I think you are in the minority on that view.  

I will join Semper Fi in that minority. I understand the sprint speed and scouts ratings have Cowser higher. I keep going back to Fangraphs speed rating and Kjerstad was rated higher than Cowser but that has a base running component. You observed HK had so many triples he can't be slow and Tony says HK is sneaky fast. I don't know why, maybe he just makes faster decisions and is more decisive but when I see each of them running bases HK looks faster. Defensively in RF, after he gets used to second decks and lights, I expect HK to be at least a MLB average defender, maybe a little more. Cowser just looks more tentative. Time will tell

[SemperFi]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

You are literally the first person who I’ve ever seen say that Kjerstad is better defensively than Cowser.  I haven’t seen enough of either to have an opinion on that, but I think you are in the minority on that view.  

Frobby, that's simply my my SSS view.  As I note most of what I have seen of Kjerstad is highlights not the miscues I remember from Cowser (I tend to forget the nice plays).  I know what the reports are on Cowser and he should be superior to Heston but he was also touted as able to handle CF and I really don't see that.  I also think Cowser was pressing on defense because of his offensive struggles.  IMO (which is often wrong) there's not much of a difference between them defensively, Cowser likely has better range and may be able to play LF at Camden Yards but I think Heston has a much more accurate arm.

[SemperFi]

16 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

I will join Semper Fi in that minority. I understand the sprint speed and scouts ratings have Cowser higher. I keep going back to Fangraphs speed rating and Kjerstad was rated higher than Cowser but that has a base running component. You observed HK had so many triples he can't be slow and Tony says HK is sneaky fast. I don't know why, maybe he just makes faster decisions and is more decisive but when I see each of them running bases HK looks faster. Defensively in RF, after he gets used to second decks and lights, I expect HK to be at least a MLB average defender, maybe a little more. Cowser just looks more tentative. Time will tell

It seems like a I am a Heston propagandist and a Cowser detractor but how many current Orioles can make this play-maybe Hays, possibly Santander.  It's only one play but look at his fundamentals charging the ball, putting himself in a position to throw and then executing a perfect one bouncer (albeit from short right) to the plate.  I really didn't see that from Cowser and certainly not from Stowers.    

Heston Kjerstad's amazing throw | 07/30/2023 | MLB.com

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, SemperFi said:

Frobby, that's simply my my SSS view.  As I note most of what I have seen of Kjerstad is highlights not the miscues I remember from Cowser (I tend to forget the nice plays).  I know what the reports are on Cowser and he should be superior to Heston but he was also touted as able to handle CF and I really don't see that.  I also think Cowser was pressing on defense because of his offensive struggles.  IMO (which is often wrong) there's not much of a difference between them defensively, Cowser likely has better range and may be able to play LF at Camden Yards but I think Heston has a much more accurate arm.

I agree Cowser seemed very tentative in the outfield during his major league stint.  I want to see a lot more of him to see if that’s really a problem, or whether it was rookie jitters/adjustment to playing in ballparks with a third level.  Bottom line, I’m giving him a mulligan on 2023, but he’ll need to earn his spot and playing time in 2024.   

[SemperFi]

3 hours ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Yeah, if they really don’t think that Hays or Cowser are acceptable in CF then that does require one bench spot goes to somebody who can play CF. But that could just be McKenna, or someone else from outside the organization. Hicks at age 34 after many years of leg injuries isn’t a proper CF himself any more. 

My preference is to use Hays in CF to spell Mullins, if Cowser is not up to it. Saves a roster spot and creates more corner OF opportunities for Kjerstad, Cowser, Norby, Westburg, Stowers, etc.

I also suspect that they may ask Mateo to do some proper work on playing CF in the offseason and in spring training. They threw him out in CF for a bit mid season and he took one hilariously poor route on a ball in a big moment and they shut that experiment down after that. But he has the tools and past experience playing CF and adding that to his game certainly would expand his utility as a bench piece and perhaps extend his time on the Orioles before getting pushed out.

I agree that Hays fills in for Mullins, but when you shift him over you have to have an adequate to plus LF in Camden Yards.  Perhaps that is Cowser but I am really scared of him given what we saw this year in CF.  I'm not a big fan of IF moving to OF but it was interesting in the game Mateo played how good he looked coming in on ball but as you note struggled going back on the ball-much like I did 40 years ago.

[SemperFi]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I agree Cowser seemed very tentative in the outfield during his major league stint.  I want to see a lot more of him to see if that’s really a problem, or whether it was rookie jitters/adjustment to playing in ballparks with a third level.  Bottom line, I’m giving him a mulligan on 2023, but he’ll need to earn his spot and playing time in 2024.   

Add to that his offensive struggles which I think really affects younger players on the defensive side.  While coaching I always thought that was one of my biggest challenges to get them to forget that last at bat while in the field.  He's in a new environment, likely struggling to hit for the first time and thinking about that last K-he's not getting a good jump or playing with much confidence (hence the tentativeness).  Like you I'll give him a mulligan as it would be nice if he can ultimately handle LF at the level scouts feel he can.

[AnythingO's]

6 minutes ago, SemperFi said:

It seems like a I am a Heston propagandist and a Cowser detractor but how many current Orioles can make this play-maybe Hays, possibly Santander.  It's only one play but look at his fundamentals charging the ball, putting himself in a position to throw and then executing a perfect one bouncer (albeit from short right) to the plate.  I really didn't see that from Cowser and certainly not from Stowers.    Heston Kjerstad's amazing throw | 07/30/2023 | MLB.com

Yeah, I regularly watched Kjerstad's highlights at AAA and I stand by my contention HK is "faster". Maybe not in sprint speed but in actually playing the game. Just look at all his triples, he is busting it and makes 3B without a throw. He just seems more decisive and goes harder faster. I also agree with Frobby in giving Cowser a mulligan for 2023. That goes for Ortiz and Stowers as well. You can't settle in when you don't get regular PT. Hopefully Elias doesn't give Hyde vet options in 2024.

[SemperFi]

9 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

Yeah, I regularly watched Kjerstad's highlights at AAA and I stand by my contention HK is "faster". Maybe not in sprint speed but in actually playing the game. Just look at all his triples, he is busting it and makes 3B without a throw. He just seems more decisive and goes harder faster. I also agree with Frobby in giving Cowser a mulligan for 2023. That goes for Ortiz and Stowers as well. You can't settle in when you don't get regular PT. Hopefully Elias doesn't give Hyde vet options in 2024.

Here is one example from what I didn't like (at this point) from Cowser.  

Orioles nab Harper at home | 07/24/2023 | MLB.com

Looks like a great play but did Colton really put himself in a position to throw?  I know he has to rush but he makes a very poor throw to Mateo who then has to reach and alter his throwing motion to the plate leading to a wide throw.  That's an easy throw that has to hit the relay in the chest or slightly above to aid in the transfer.  Hays or Hicks make that play easily while I thought CC struggled with accuracy in his time up. 

In fairness there are also a number of defensive highlights of his from Norfolk in which he looks like a totally different player than the one we saw in Baltimore.  Decisive, good jumps, decent arm.  We will see next year.

[AnythingO's]

43 minutes ago, SemperFi said:

Here is one example from what I didn't like (at this point) from Cowser.  

Orioles nab Harper at home | 07/24/2023 | MLB.com

Looks like a great play but did Colton really put himself in a position to throw?  I know he has to rush but he makes a very poor throw to Mateo who then has to reach and alter his throwing motion to the plate leading to a wide throw.  That's an easy throw that has to hit the relay in the chest or slightly above to aid in the transfer.  Hays or Hicks make that play easily while I thought CC struggled with accuracy in his time up. 

In fairness there are also a number of defensive highlights of his from Norfolk in which he looks like a totally different player than the one we saw in Baltimore.  Decisive, good jumps, decent arm.  We will see next year.

I think Harper was safe, never tagged him lol. Yeah, I remember that one, tentative, not a strong throw. Scout ratings have Cowser with 55 speed and Kjerstad at 40 but when I look at Cowser running I don't see that kind of speed. They also said Hjerstad has a long complicated swing that could give him trouble at the MLB level. I see a really quick bat and he seems balanced even with the big leg kick. He fights off outside pitches and goes the other way. Cowser's SO rate at AAA is like Stowers, about 27% while Kjerstad is more like Westburg and Norby 21-22%, just above Ortiz and Vavra around 18-19%. We know Westburg and Ortiz are fast but Fangraphs has Vavra as 7.1, Westburg 6.6, Ortiz 6.5, Kjerstad 6.0, while Cowser is 4.9, Norby 5.1, Stowers 3.9, Mayo 3.3 where 5.0 is good and 6.0 is excellent. Maybe Vavra can become 5th OF with that speed.