Why Kyle Gibson might be resigned

[oriole]

57 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

I am totally jaded. 

I’m not even asking to go back to the Buck years payroll levels. It feels silly that its such an insane suggestion that I’d like to see a mid-market FA signed. They’ve done it before plenty of times. Unfortunately it doesn’t usually end up great, but that doesn’t make failure definite. 

[Can_of_corn]

11 minutes ago, oriole said:

I’m not even asking to go back to the Buck years payroll levels. It feels silly that its such an insane suggestion that I’d like to see a mid-market FA signed. They’ve done it before plenty of times. Unfortunately it doesn’t usually end up great, but that doesn’t make failure definite. 

Right despite the fact that inflation means that 2016 budget (142M) would be 182M in 2023 dollars.

[OriolesMagic83]

40 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Right despite the fact that inflation means that 2016 budget (142M) would be 182M in 2023 dollars.

Yeah but Peter wasn't living off the O's income like his son is.  I'll be surprised if we ever see a $140 million payroll while John Angelos is in charge.  Maybe if there's massive inflation and the Yankees and Red Sox have $500 million payrolls.  

[AnythingO's]

4 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Yeah but Peter wasn't living off the O's income like his son is.  I'll be surprised if we ever see a $140 million payroll while John Angelos is in charge.  Maybe if there's massive inflation and the Yankees and Red Sox have $500 million payrolls.  

From working with the Forbes numbers I would say a $140 M Payroll would require deficit spending which JA will never do IMO. Also note that Payroll is Salaries plus benefits. Most years benefits are around $20M but in 2019 and 2022 benefits were around $40 M each year but there is no explanation for the year t year variance. If benefits are $40 M than Salaries are $100 M in a $140 M Payroll.

[OriolesMagic83]

3 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

From working with the Forbes numbers I would say a $140 M Payroll would require deficit spending which JA will never do IMO. Also note that Payroll is Salaries plus benefits. Most years benefits are around $20M but in 2019 and 2022 benefits were around $40 M each year but there is no explanation for the year t year variance. If benefits are $40 M than Salaries are $100 M in a $140 M Payroll.

I don't believe there is any way the O's would lose money in 2024 with a $140 million payroll even if attendance stays the same and Angelos doesn't raise the prices of everything.  I believe someone posted the finances of the O's and the O's/Angelos made $80 million in 2021.  I'll let someone else address this who understands the numbers better.  The O's/Angelos like to keep MASN revenue separate from the O's when the only reason for MASN's existence is to cover the O's.

[EddeeEddee]

19 hours ago, Safelykept said:

Kremer To the pen, not likely. Not to start the season anyway. They will sign a Free agent starter Gibson or something equal Hall Wells and Irvin in the pen as needed starter backup

Even John Angelos will feel the pressure to sign someone better than Gibson, especially with that low a payroll.  If they don't then I predict the Orioles will be worse than in 2023 considering other AL East teams will probably improve in the offseason and give the O's greater competition next season.  I'm sure even John Angelos wants to go deeper into the playoffs.

[Matt Bennett]

13 hours ago, oriole said:

That’s not even counting some other prospects that don’t really have a spot here like Norby, Ortiz, Mayo, and Vavra. 

Agree with a lot of your post, although Mayo is looking more like the type of prospect where, when he’s ready, somebody on the big league club doesn’t have a spot anymore. Extremely impressive season from him at such a young age. 

And there is playing time for Ortiz to fill with at least one of Frazier/Urias/Mateo crew gone, likely two. But Holliday would seem to push him out of an everyday role.  

[Frobby]

15 hours ago, Morgan423 said:

2012 - 2016 say hi.

You can’t really lump those years all together IMO, nor are they that comparable to now.  Top 6 starters and starter ERA:

2012: Chen, Hunter, Hammel, Arrieta, Gonzalez, Tillman — 4.42 ERA

2013: Tillman, Gonzalez, Chen, Hammel,  Feldman, Garcia — 4.57 ERA

2014: Tillman, Chen, Norris, Gonzalez, Jiminez, Gausman — 3.61 ERA

2015: Chen, Jimenez, Tillman, Gonzalez, Gausman, Norris — 4.53 ERA

2016: Gausman, Tillman, Jimenez, Gallardo, Wilson, Bundy — 4.72 ERA

Tillman is the only one who was on all five staffs, and he only played half a season in 2012.   Those staffs were pretty bad except for the 2014 outlier.

 

[Bemorewins]

10 hours ago, EddeeEddee said:

Even John Angelos will feel the pressure to sign someone better than Gibson, especially with that low a payroll.  If they don't then I predict the Orioles will be worse than in 2023 considering other AL East teams will probably improve in the offseason and give the O's greater competition next season.  I'm sure even John Angelos wants to go deeper into the playoffs.

I haven't seen ANYTHING from his actions or comments that says he even. remotely cares about the team competing for a championship. Almost everything that he has said public has nothing to do with making the team better. Usually the comments are tied to finances or something unrelated to baseball.

I honestly believe that the man is apathetic when it comes to the playoffs. Sure he will show up for the photo op if the team wins/clinches something. But I haven't heard anything about what he is willing to do to support that.

[AnythingO's]

11 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I don't believe there is any way the O's would lose money in 2024 with a $140 million payroll even if attendance stays the same and Angelos doesn't raise the prices of everything.  I believe someone posted the finances of the O's and the O's/Angelos made $80 million in 2021.  I'll let someone else address this who understands the numbers better.  The O's/Angelos like to keep MASN revenue separate from the O's when the only reason for MASN's existence is to cover the O's.

I was the one who posted the numbers and yes they had Operating Income (Profits) of $83 M in 2021 and $67 M in 2022. However, Salaries were $45.7 M and $44.9 M those years and 2022 was one of the years when benefits jumped up to $38.1 M for some unknown reason. The years they lost money were 2016-2018 when Salaries were $143 M to $164 M, Payroll was $161 M to $183 M. Benefits were in the $15 M to $18 M range then.

[Sports Guy]

https://www.cbsnews.com/baltimore/news/orioles-bond-over-faith-bible-study-beliefs-bigger-than-baseball-were-christians-first/?fbclid=IwAR1yNzyx-f4GG6xSSPwZfZbTwxmf-LY4LRVmU_-r0oayvx4lnY7qt2MOt7I_aem_AQEF4sLGzwUVbhYOW_Z1qqF2BAixxXSivRaUhOiMrVMSCFs1gMLZtDlhkTFOPMfQxic&mibextid=OgnMqR

[Can_of_corn]

19 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

I was the one who posted the numbers and yes they had Operating Income (Profits) of $83 M in 2021 and $67 M in 2022. However, Salaries were $45.7 M and $44.9 M those years and 2022 was one of the years when benefits jumped up to $38.1 M for some unknown reason. The years they lost money were 2016-2018 when Salaries were $143 M to $164 M, Payroll was $161 M to $183 M. Benefits were in the $15 M to $18 M range then.

It was the first season under the new CBA, might that be a factor?

[Can_of_corn]

17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

https://www.cbsnews.com/baltimore/news/orioles-bond-over-faith-bible-study-beliefs-bigger-than-baseball-were-christians-first/?fbclid=IwAR1yNzyx-f4GG6xSSPwZfZbTwxmf-LY4LRVmU_-r0oayvx4lnY7qt2MOt7I_aem_AQEF4sLGzwUVbhYOW_Z1qqF2BAixxXSivRaUhOiMrVMSCFs1gMLZtDlhkTFOPMfQxic&mibextid=OgnMqR

Quote

In pro sports, religious beliefs aren't promoted as part of the public discussion. 

For good reasons.

The article title is:

Quote

Orioles bond over faith, Bible study, beliefs bigger than baseball: 'We're Christians first'

We know at least one member of the team isn't.

 

 

Edited October 18, 2023 by Can_of_corn

[oriole]

1 hour ago, Matt Bennett said:

Agree with a lot of your post, although Mayo is looking more like the type of prospect where, when he’s ready, somebody on the big league club doesn’t have a spot anymore. Extremely impressive season from him at such a young age. 

And there is playing time for Ortiz to fill with at least one of Frazier/Urias/Mateo crew gone, likely two. But Holliday would seem to push him out of an everyday role.  

I agree that Mayo is a good player, but that’s what would give him value in trade. Unless he is able to commit to 1B full time, there isn’t really a spot for him. He’s not gonna push Holliday or Henderson off 3B. He isn’t going to play a LF in Camden built for a center fielder. His best attribute, power, will be squashed playing at home. His second best attribute, his arm, would be squashed playing 1B. I think he’s gonna be good, he just doesn’t really fit.  It doesn’t mean I’d be trading him just to trade him either. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, oriole said:

I agree that Mayo is a good player, but that’s what would give him value in trade. Unless he is able to commit to 1B full time, there isn’t really a spot for him. He’s not gonna push Holliday or Henderson off 3B. He isn’t going to play a LF in Camden built for a center fielder. His best attribute, power, will be squashed playing at home. His second best attribute, his arm, would be squashed playing 1B. I think he’s gonna be good, he just doesn’t really fit.  It doesn’t mean I’d be trading him just to trade him either. 

Mayo may not need to push any of them off third. It just may be his position, with Holliday at second and Gunnar at SS.

Im not sure I buy into this happening but it definitely could.