Dylan Cease

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Please point out some where I specifically wrote "not good". 

Saying he only had 1 good year and saying he is "not good" are 2 totally different things. Zero Sum logic is ignorant.

Oh my bad. You said he has only been good for one year. I don’t know why I would think you don’t think he’s been good otherwise. Either way, your definition is factually wrong.

Edited November 6, 2023 by Sports Guy

[Chicago White Sox]

3 minutes ago, Malike said:

I honestly don't know how he's going to project out. Currently, through his statcast data, 2022 is the outlier. 2021 was much closer to 2023. He strikes a bunch of guys out but his K rate has been trending down for 3 straight years. He's likely going to be a solid pitcher, but I don't think he's going to be an Ace and I'd hate for the org to pay Ace prices for him.

All fair points, although I’m a firm believer that if you’re able to spin an elite slider for a full season, that ability doesn’t just go away on a whim short of an injury or a loss of stuff.  Doesn’t guarantee it will come back at the same level or that he’ll be able to command it consistently, but I believe we see it performing much closer to 2022 levels next year.

Obviously my opinion doesn’t really matter here and it comes down to what Elias and your front office see in Cease.  Is there a simple adjustment that can return the slider to its elite form or even other mechanical or repertoire adjustments that could elevate his game?  

In all honesty, I wouldn’t give up Mayo+ if I felt their wasn’t a chance the 2022 version comes back.  If I felt like there was an obvious fix though, I’d do it in a heartbeat assuming Angelos is going to keep a tight leash on payroll.  Windows are short and you’re absolutely loaded at almost every position.  By no means should you get rid of prospects simply because you have a surplus, but when your rotation could use a serious boost it’s a bit crazy sit on all these bats and not push some chips in.  That doesn’t have to be Cease, but I’d 100% be trading for a top of the rotation if I were Elias, again assuming Angelos won’t spend the money to add one in free agency.

[Roll Tide]

6 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

All fair points, although I’m a firm believer that if you’re able to spin an elite slider for a full season, that ability doesn’t just go away on a whim short of an injury or a loss of stuff.  Doesn’t guarantee it will come back at the same level or that he’ll be able to command it consistently, but I believe we see it performing much closer to 2022 levels next year.

Obviously my opinion doesn’t really matter here and it comes down to what Elias and your front office see in Cease.  Is there a simple adjustment that can return the slider to its elite form or even other mechanical or repertoire adjustments that could elevate his game?  

In all honesty, I wouldn’t give up Mayo+ if I felt their wasn’t a chance the 2022 version comes back.  If I felt like there was an obvious fix though, I’d do it in a heartbeat assuming Angelos is going to keep a tight leash on payroll.  Windows are short and you’re absolutely loaded at almost every position.  By no means should you get rid of prospects simply because you have a surplus, but when your rotation could use a serious boost it’s a bit crazy sit on all these bats and not push some chips in.  That doesn’t have to be Cease, but I’d 100% be trading for a top of the rotation if I were Elias, again assuming Angelos won’t spend the money to add one in free agency.

So, a couple of things. It would be foolish for the Orioles to give up a package for Cease if Angelos won’t approve the money needed to extend him. 

Bradish appears to be maturing into a top of the rotation guy. while we need an upgrade (ratter than a serious boost) over Gibson the 2023 version of Cease isn’t good enough to break the bank to obtain.

I personally wouldn’t give up Mayo, I simply used him as a point comparison on a trade simulator.

I’d be on board with trading a guy like Norby and a couple of lesser others. If the White Sox are looking to sell the 2022 version of Cease I think Elias should pass. Especially for just a couple seasons. If that’s the case he should push for enough payroll to pay Gray.
 

 

Edited November 6, 2023 by Roll Tide

[Chicago White Sox]

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

So, a couple of things. It would be foolish for the Orioles to give up a package for Cease if Angelos won’t approve the money needed to extend him. 

Bradish appears to be maturing into a top of the rotation guy. while we need an upgrade (ratter than a serious boost) over Gibson the 2023 version of Cease isn’t good enough to break the bank to obtain.

I personally wouldn’t give up Mayo, I simply used him as a point comparison on a trade simulator.

I’d be on board with trading a guy like Norby and a couple of lesser others. If the White Sox are looking to sell the 2022 version of Cease I think Elias should pass. Especially for just a couple seasons. If that’s the case he should push for enough payroll to pay Gray.
 

 

And that’s totally fair if you feel it’s unwise to trade for Cease if he’s being priced at his 2022 version.  But a package centered around Norby isn’t even remotely realistic for the 2023 version of Cease or any other SP of any real quality.

[Sports Guy]

11 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

One amazing year?  Cease put up the 8th most fWAR amongst starting pitchers from 2021 to 2023?  Everyone else in his company is considered a legit ace.  During that same period, he has a top four K rate, which highlights how dominant his stuff is.  Cease’s big problem has been command problems at times, but he’s proven to be incredibly effective despite that wildness.

Yes, his 2023 was a down year relative to his standards, but a poor ERA doesn’t really tell the whole story.  His 3.7 fWAR reflects the fact his core peripherals were still good and not radically different from his previous two years, but that a tough home ballpark and a terrible defense hurt his ERA.  The latter is highly important to call out because metrics like bWAR don’t capture the impact of poor defense.

Having said that, I won’t sit here and pretend that fWAR is the end all be all, although it’s a much better predictor of future performance than bWAR.  The reality is his fastball was down a tick and more importantly his slider was simply not as effective as it was in 2022.  The spin rate on it was more or less the same, but his release point on it was different and so was the shape and location.  People were chasing it less because he too far out of the zone.

Despite his struggles with the slider last year, there was a ton of interest in him at the deadline because most front offices view the previous Sox front office as being highly incompetent and behind the times when it comes to analytics and biometrics.  Just look at how quickly the Dodgers were able to turn Lance Lynn around.  I’m not a pitching expert by any means, but Dylan is a very cerebral player and his issues last year appeared to be mechanical.  I think if the Sox were more realistic with their ask, he almost certainly would have been traded as very few arms have the ceiling he possesses along with the ability to go six every night.

And I know how annoying it is when an opposing fan comes to another team’s message board and tells people they’re undervaluing a guy but that is clearly happening here quite a bit.  Don’t get me wrong, we aren’t getting Holiday for Cease (which I believe we were asking for at the deadline), but a package would certainly hurt and would need to be lead by a legit blue chipper plus a really good second piece.  And it doesn’t really matter what the trade calculator says.  It’s a fun tool, but it’s only as good as its inputs and they are really hit or miss.

For me, I wouldn’t take anything less than Mayo and say Ortiz and that second piece doesn’t make me feel all that great when you factor in normal bust rates and the lack of immediate success from many of your prospects.  And while Mayo has a super intriguing package of offensive tools, his lack of a clear defensive position does take a tiny bit of shine off him.  That being said, I can see how this would be viewed as a fair trade for both sides, although I feel like that will be a very unpopular opinion here.

I don’t really disagree with you but if the WS want to move Cease, they are going to be hard pressed to get a top 25 prospect. 
 

The bottom line is 2022  is the reason he has real value. Outside of that, he’s not a guy you are trade a big package for but seeing as 2022 seems like an aberration, I think people look at that year with a bit of a grain of salt.

The reality is if the White Sox want what they feel he’s truly worth, they may have to hold onto him and hope he has a big first half and then move him at the deadline.

[LookinUp]

On 11/3/2023 at 6:19 PM, ChosenOne21 said:

This is an overpay according to baseball trade values at least. They have:

Ortiz: 13.8M
Cowser: 37.4M
Povich: 5.1M
Rhodes 2M

Cease: 44.8M

A few thoughts:

1. I'd have Ortiz's value higher. Much higher. I could see him as 2 WAR this year, pretty easily. And he has 6 years of control.
2. I'd have Cowser's value lower (at least relative to Ortiz's). I just don't love Cowser.
3. I'd personally want the pitching prospect to be lower level than Povich. He's a really good 3rd piece. If he's the second piece, I'd be more on board. I'm thinking more of a guy who's far away but has some potential.
4. I wonder how the O's value Cease's FV. Many think he's peaked. I think he really fits the Verlander model, where he was going backwards in a bad organization (Detroit) but could possibly get back to dominant in a great org (Houston). It's just a guess though. They obviously know better.

[Aristotelian]

3 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

So, a couple of things. It would be foolish for the Orioles to give up a package for Cease if Angelos won’t approve the money needed to extend him. 

I don't see why extending should be a consideration. For one thing, Cease could have his heart set on playing somewhere else. If we make a play for Cease, the only guarantee would be the controlled years. If Elias thinks he would help the team during that window more than we need the prospects, we should do it. (That being said, I believe the price will be higher than Elias is willing to pay - probably one of Cowser/Basallo/Mayo).

 

[Roll Tide]

49 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I don't see why extending should be a consideration. For one thing, Cease could have his heart set on playing somewhere else. If we make a play for Cease, the only guarantee would be the controlled years. If Elias thinks he would help the team during that window more than we need the prospects, we should do it. (That being said, I believe the price will be higher than Elias is willing to pay - probably one of Cowser/Basallo/Mayo).

 

Then you dont trade for him. 2 Years of Cease at his 2023 production isnt worth giving up 3 of our better prospects.

Edited November 6, 2023 by Roll Tide

[Frobby]

14 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Out of a 5 year career, he's had an ERA of 4 or worse 4 out of those 5 seasons. I am rounding a 3.91 ERA to a 4 because .09 decimals doesn't make any difference to me.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/ceasedy01.shtml

Well, first of all, that “rounding up” logic is the most absurd thing I’ve ever heard.  3.91 is not “4 or worse.”  It’s slightly better than 4.

Second of all, Cease’s 4.01 ERA in 2020 translated to a 111 ERA+, and his 3.91 ERA in 2021 translated to a 112.  So, he was an above starting pitcher both those years, in addition to his excellent 2022 season.  

I am not the biggest Cease fan, and he has some downsides.   But he’s a 27-year old with a career ERA+ of 113.  That’s not chicken feed.  
 

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

And that’s totally fair if you feel it’s unwise to trade for Cease if he’s being priced at his 2022 version.  But a package centered around Norby isn’t even remotely realistic for the 2023 version of Cease or any other SP of any real quality.

So Norby was listed just outside the top 100 when last reported. I'd imagine it would depend on the other players in the deal. Norby is our 7th best prospect according to MLB and has a .850 OPS the last 2 years. We have the top farm system in baseball. He'd easily be in many teams top 5. He could easily be a .275/20 Homer/80 RBI guys at 2B or LF.

[Frobby]

13 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

 

And I know how annoying it is when an opposing fan comes to another team’s message board and tells people they’re undervaluing a guy but that is clearly happening here quite a bit.  

To the contrary, I appreciate it when a knowledgeable fan of another team comes here and gives their perspective on players from their team and ours, especially when they do it in a respectful way.  It’s a very good reality check.  I wish we had more fans of other teams coming on here and doing the same.  

For me, Cease is a talented pitcher but his tendency to run high pitch counts and make early exits makes him a bit less valuable than his ERA and peripheral numbers otherwise would suggest.  
 

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

So Norby was listed just outside the top 100 when last reported. I'd imagine it would depend on the other players in the deal. Norby is our 7th best prospect according to MLB and has a .850 OPS the last 2 years. We have the top farm system in baseball. He'd easily be in many teams top 5. He could easily be a .275/20 Homer/80 RBI guys at 2B or LF.

Yeah, a package headed by Norby isn’t getting you Cease.  

[Roll Tide]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yeah, a package headed by Norby isn’t getting you Cease.  

Then I dont want him. I'm not giving a top 100 guy plus for a 4 ERA pitcher. I'd rather just sign Sonny Gray for 2 years

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

Then I dont want him. I'm not giving a top 100 guy plus for a 4 ERA pitcher. I'd rather just sign Sonny Gray for 2 years

Then you’re not getting Sonny Gray either, most likely.   Can’t always get what you want.

[Roll Tide]

20 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Then you’re not getting Sonny Gray either, most likely.   Can’t always get what you want.

  Gray (the free agent) involves an increase over the Gibson $10 million contract. If you trade Santander (Likely 12.5 million 2024 salary) you have the $20 million it would take replaced by a minimum salary guy from the minors.

Edited November 6, 2023 by Roll Tide