Cease vs everyone else

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I agree that some are overvaluing the prospects..just as some of them are overvaluing Cease.

They think that because it’s what happened to their team but their team was run by incompetent people who didn’t have a clue as to what they  are doing. 
 

 

Well, I think making a trade like Cowser, Ortiz, and Povich for Cease would shorten our competitive window.

Here's something that's undeniable when looking at it from their point of view: Not all these prospects are going to pan out so they want to get multiple guys to cover themselves.

But that's not something the O's should concede.  If you want multiple guys, you need to get out of our top six.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Well, I think making a trade like Cowser, Ortiz, and Povich for Cease would shorten our competitive window.

Here's something that's undeniable when looking at it from their point of view: Not all these prospects are going to pan out so they want to get multiple guys to cover themselves.

But that's not something the O's should concede.  If you want multiple guys, you need to get out of our top six.

If you think that any realistic trade shortens our competitive window, you must not have much faith in Elias or the players that would be left.

[Pickles]

To me I'd let them have their pick from 4-6 and like 10-14 on our farm.  Two guys in that range and nothing more.

That's if I was motivated to get Cease.  I'd have to do more of a deep dive to say.

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

If you think that any realistic trade shortens our competitive window, you must not have much faith in Elias or the players that would be left.

TBH, in such a scenario, it would feasible that we wound with nothing but two years of Dylan Cease (and who knows how that goes) for two top 5 picks.

That would sting.

[24fps]

20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Let me guess..they think Cease is great and we should be trading big packages for him?

Of course they do.  The point is not discovering some hitherto unrecognized genius trade solution but to see the situation from their perspective.  You're not obligated to agree with it, but it's foolish to dismiss it out of hand.  Some of the posters there seem as knowledgeable about the Sox as some of the posters here are about the O's.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, 24fps said:

Of course they do.  The point is not discovering some hitherto unrecognized genius trade solution but to see the situation from their perspective.  You're not obligated to agree with it, but it's foolish to dismiss it out of hand.  Some of the posters there seem as knowledgeable about the Sox as some of the posters here are about the O's.

Which is exactly why I don’t have to read it. 

And btw, I did end up glancing over it but it’s pretty predictable what they would say, just as it’s predictable what will be said here.  When you have been posting on boards for as long as we all have, it’s not difficult to figure out what the other side is saying.

[waroriole]

3 minutes ago, Pickles said:

To me I'd let them have their pick from 4-6 and like 10-14 on our farm.  Two guys in that range and nothing more.

That's if I was motivated to get Cease.  I'd have to do more of a deep dive to say.

I’m not interested in moving anyone in our 4-6 for Cease. I’d move 3 in that 8-15 range. Probably not enough, which is fine because I don’t value Cease very highly, but I’d trade Stowers, Horvath, Povich for Cease. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, waroriole said:

I’m not interested in moving anyone in our 4-6 for Cease. I’d move 3 in that 8-15 range. Probably not enough, which is fine because I don’t value Cease very highly, but I’d trade Stowers, Horvath, Povich for Cease. 

Just think…last year if you would have said that, you would have been ok dealing Basallo.

Sometimes the second 10 can be as or more valuable than some of the first 10.

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, waroriole said:

I’m not interested in moving anyone in our 4-6 for Cease. I’d move 3 in that 8-15 range. Probably not enough, which is fine because I don’t value Cease very highly, but I’d trade Stowers, Horvath, Povich for Cease. 

Unfortunately for Stowers, and us, nobody gives a hoot about him.  It's easy to squint and see Stowers in the bigs in 3-4 years with a role on a competitve team, but he's nothing more than a throw in at this point in a trade.

I'd say they can pick amongst Ortiz/Cowser/Kjerstad and have a 10-15 prospect as well.  

But again, only if I was motivated to get Cease, and I'm not sure that I am.

[Pickles]

From the Sox board:

Anyway, from the Orioles, how unreasonable am I being here?

Kjerstad, Bradfield (should have been the Sox pick once Teel was off the board), Povich and Juan Nunez for Cease and any random throw in like Jimmy Lambert.

[RZNJ]

10 minutes ago, Pickles said:

TBH, in such a scenario, it would feasible that we wound with nothing but two years of Dylan Cease (and who knows how that goes) for two top 5 picks.

That would sting.

Their point was that we act as though all of our prospects are going to work out which is what you’re doing.  Sure, it’s going to sting if Cease is 2023 Cease for two years and both Cowser and Ortiz become above average regulars.   Of course, it won’t sting if Cease is somewhere between 2022 Cease and 2023 Cease and neither Ortiz or Cowser hit ML pitching very well.   I’m nervous to give prospects up too.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Which is exactly why I don’t have to read it. 

And btw, I did end up glancing over it but it’s pretty predictable what they would say, just as it’s predictable what will be said here.  When you have been posting on boards for as long as we all have, it’s not difficult to figure out what the other side is saying.

The White Sox guy that’s been on here that appears to be on there is good enough for me. I think there is a slight overrating going on with him w/r/t Cease but his stance is reasonable.

[Pickles]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Their point was that we act as though all of our prospects are going to work out which is what you’re doing.  Sure, it’s going to sting if Cease is 2023 Cease for two years and both Cowser and Ortiz become above average regulars.   Of course, it won’t sting if Cease is somewhere between 2022 Cease and 2023 Cease and neither Ortiz or Cowser hit ML pitching very well.   I’m nervous to give prospects up too.

No, I willing to say they're not.  I pointed it out myself.  Not my problem.  Pick one and live with the consequences.  That's my stance as a trade partner.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

From the Sox board:

Anyway, from the Orioles, how unreasonable am I being here?

Kjerstad, Bradfield (should have been the Sox pick once Teel was off the board), Povich and Juan Nunez for Cease and any random throw in like Jimmy Lambert.

If I’m trading 4-5 guys to them, Kopech needs to be coming back.

[HakunaSakata]

23 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

First of all, I never said they would do that deal. I just said I would love to see that happen, IE I would rather trade one of our proven MLers vs a prospect. For the last several months, I have been saying  Cowser or Westburg for Woo and I ultimately feel that’s what it will take.

That being said, the Mariners are a team that can win now and they may not want the maybe vs having the definites. Santander is coming off an excellent year and they very easily could value that 30 homer bat. They also may like the idea of Mountcastle for 3 more years, his power, etc…

You are also overrating Woo.  It’s not like he had some spectacular season. He was good and I like his profile but he has a ways to go. FG didn’t even have him as a top prospect in 2023. Law didn’t have him in his top 60 midseason. MLB had him as the Mariners 6th ranked prospects entering the year.

In trying to find lists with him on it but can’t find them although I’m sure I saw him listed on some in the past but you are acting like he is some can’t miss guy, which is laughable. While I would deal Cowser for him, I think that’s likely too much for him. I would do it because we have the need for pitching more than we have the need for the OFer and if that’s what it takes, so be it.

You have also been consistent in thinking none of these guys will be available and you are wrong about that..just as you are wrong about Burnes being attainable and how you were wrong that Mateo wouldn’t have value to the WS, even though they basically traded for his clone in the Braves deal.  So, you are jaded in any of this discussions because of your personal thoughts that these guys don’t have value or won’t be available anyway. 
 

One of these Mariners pitchers are 100% available and they are looking for offense..whether they want proven or not, we don’t know but we do know they want immediate help.

I'm wrong because I sometimes disagree with some of your opinions, which you constantly either change and/or walk back whenever someone (god forbid) disagrees with you rather than actually admit you were wrong? Yep, that sounds about right. 

I'm not overvaluing Woo, you're undervaluing him. A 23 year old pitcher with the amount of service time that he has left who's shown he can pitch at the MLB level is extremely valuable. Players like Santander / Mountcastle (power guys with poor OBP) are a dime a dozen. What they bring to the table isn't unique in this era. 

The Braves deal was a roster dump (nothing more). NIcky Lopez did nothing to move the needle in that trade. 

You have no idea who is/isn't available. We're all just speculating.