Cease vs everyone else

[OriolesMagic83]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I have put in a request to join in on that site and it’s been in for over a week. I’m not sure it’s really monitoredz

Maybe it is monitored. 

[emmett16]

5 hours ago, RZNJ said:

No one seems to be interested in Shane Bieber.  The cost should be relatively low because he’s a one year rental and he missed a huge chunk of last season.  He’s lost something off his fastball and his strikeout numbers have plummeted BUT he still put up 200 innings with a 2.87 FIP in 2022 with the same fastball velocity as he had in 2023.   He came back and made his last two starts of the season in September.   I’d rather pay the lower prospect price and take the risk on Bieber.   I still think there’s a lot of upside with a full season of a healthy Bieber.   

He’s apparently on a velocity program this winter.  He’ll either gain a tick or two or blown out the UCL.  

[OriolesMagic83]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I predict that if anything does happen, it will be mid-January or later.  Elias is a patient guy and Getz appears to be in no hurry, either.

Yean, maybe in 2024 offseason we'll get a starter.  Patience is overrated.  I'm not saying Elias has to trade for Cease, but he needs to trade for or sign a better starter than our #4/5 guys.  Ideally better than Means too.

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I mean I think I just enumerated it pretty well.

Are you going to get Adam Jones for Cease?  Nobody's offering that.

Nobody is even sniffing Kjerstad or Cowser in offer.  Very few could, or would.

I know they're not exactly equivalent value, but Kjerstad, Cowser, Ortiz, they get one of those guys.  Not two.

You don’t know what people are offering or how serious people are with some FA pitchers still out there.

 

[Pickles]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

You don’t know what people are offering or how serious people are with some FA pitchers still out there.

 

No, but I'm speculating on what we've heard.

Trading away global top 60 prospects who are major league ready with incredibly high floors doesn't happen every day.  In fact, it's very rare, because they have a lot of value.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Pickles said:

No, but I'm speculating on what we've heard.

Trading away global top 60 prospects who are major league ready with incredibly high floors doesn't happen every day.  In fact, it's very rare, because they have a lot of value.

Not sure he’s a global top 60 prospect and most top 60 prospects are old and that is his biggest issue.

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Not sure he’s a global top 60 prospect and most top 60 prospects are old and that is his biggest issue.

He's 25.  He'll be fine.

Again, if they could've got a top 25 guy who was major league ready, they would have by now.  But they can't.

So their choice is what the Orioles let them have, or they can go play around with 19 year old arms.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Pickles said:

He's 25.  He'll be fine.

Again, if they could've got a top 25 guy who was major league ready, they would have by now.  But they can't.

So their choice is what the Orioles let them have, or they can go play around with 19 year old arms.

They can’t get a top 25 guy in all likelihood but they could get a top 50 guy who is 2-4 years younger and that is significant, no matter how much you choose to overlook it.

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

They can’t get a top 25 guy in all likelihood but they could get a top 50 guy who is 2-4 years younger and that is significant, no matter how much you choose to overlook it.

Well, who's that guy?  Vaughn Grissom?

If a big factor in who they get is if the guy is 29 or 31 in 2030 when he's a free agent, then they're calculating in a very stupid way.  Now, they might be doing that.  They are the White Sox.

 

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Well, who's that guy?  Vaughn Grissom?

If a big factor in who they get is if the guy is 29 or 31 in 2030 when he's a free agent, then they're calculating in a very stupid way.  Now, they might be doing that.  They are the White Sox.

 

I mean come on, you have to understand why age matters.  Just glossing over that is just foolish. If you don’t want Cease that’s fine but don’t be so naive.

They definitely got hurt when the Dodgers got Glasnow and Mr Roboto instead, that’s for sure but Cinci can offer them better guys than Ortiz, as an example.

[Pickles]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I mean come on, you have to understand why age matters.  Just glossing over that is just foolish. If you don’t want Cease that’s fine but don’t be so naive.

They definitely got hurt when the Dodgers got Glasnow and Mr Roboto instead, that’s for sure but Cinci can offer them better guys than Ortiz, as an example.

I understand why age matters.  Everybody does.  You're not breaking anything new.  It's already calculated into Ortiz' value.

If Ortiz was 22, he'd be a top 10 prospect in the game, which nobody would ever give up for Cease.

Edited December 23, 2023 by Pickles

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I understand why age matters.  Everybody does.  You're not breaking anything new.  It's already calculated into Ortiz' value.

If Ortiz was 22, he'd be a top 10 prospect in the game, which nobody would ever give up for Cease.

lol…ok.

You are just being absurd at this point.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Number5 said:

Don't you think we could get Valdez for that?  Wouldn't you rather we do that?

I’ve said already that I’d prefer Valdez to Cease if the return requested were equal.  But, I doubt the return requested would be equal.  

[Pickles]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

lol…ok.

You are just being absurd at this point.

How so?

It's true.  If Ortiz was 22 years old, major league ready, with a career AAA of .900 OPS for 500+ PAs, with GG upside with the glove, he'd be damn near a top ten prospect in baseball.

The only reason he's a tier below is because he is older.

[24fps]

50 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Yean, maybe in 2024 offseason we'll get a starter.  Patience is overrated.  I'm not saying Elias has to trade for Cease, but he needs to trade for or sign a better starter than our #4/5 guys.  Ideally better than Means too.

Given what I saw during the 2023 regular season, I think I'd rather be an offseason too early than an offseason too late to make the move.  I agree that it doesn't have to be Cease but it should be for somebody good in the next two months.