Cease vs everyone else

[Tony-OH]

7 hours ago, Malike said:

Cease clearly has value and would upgrade the rotation, but don't buy the nonsense that he's a number 1 starter. He's not.

He was a #1 starter in 2022 and his FIP suggests even with his down year last year that he's a solid #2 or #3 at worse.

A playoff rotation of Bradish, Rodriguez and Cease intrigues me for sure. If John Means is your 4th starter then your rotation is pretty good.

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

I mean everything has to come together. But, maybe not ….he walked a crap load even in his CY young season. He was unhittable 6.2 per 9. Looking at that season his FIP was 3.10 was worse than his ERA 2.20. Plus he gave up 45 home runs 2 years ago and 90 ERs last year.

I just don’t see it …

there is maybe a 10-15% chance he’s similar to his 2022 performance. Considering the asking price I don’t think it’s worth the stretch. I’d go after Luzardo or one of the Seattle guys. And I’d bite the bullet and make one of Kjerstad, Cowser, Basallo available in that deal. I’d still prefer to hang onto Mayo and Holiday is untouchable because I’m sure he is. 

The thing is, the Orioles are certainly not going to offer the talent it would take to get a 2022 version of Cease. So I don't think anyone but maybe the White Sox GM values Cease like that. 

If Getz wants value for the 2022 version of Cease, then he's going to hold on to him because no team is going to do that, and certainly not Elias. 

[Roll Tide]

14 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

The thing is, the Orioles are certainly not going to offer the talent it would take to get a 2022 version of Cease. So I don't think anyone but maybe the White Sox GM values Cease like that. 

If Getz wants value for the 2022 version of Cease, then he's going to hold on to him because no team is going to do that, and certainly not Elias. 

I agree ... Thats why I would try to pry Braxton Garrett or Lazardo with one of our top guys as the headliner that's not Holiday and of the others Id prefer to hang onto Mayo

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

Where he's ranked by others doesn't matter to me. I said I'd deal him especially for Braxton Garrett. If you wouldn't thats perfectly fine. Of our guys ranked higher than Ortiz, Id prefer to keep Mayo and Holiday. Can't keep em all IMO

Actually,  you can keep all of the special ones.  It's just being able to recognize which ones are special.  Holliday and Basallo are.  Mayo is close.  

[btdart20]

47 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Actually,  you can keep all of the special ones.  It's just being able to recognize which ones are special.  Holliday and Basallo are.  Mayo is close.  

Agreed.  And Mayo is special too.  We shouldn’t be trading them IMO.

[Sports Guy]

The Os have a ton of players to trade that the thought of trading any of our top 3 guys is laughable imo.

Now, to get a difference maker, it does mean trading Westburg, Kjerstad or Cowser and any of those guys should absolutely be on the table for a trade.

[Rustbelt]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The Os have a ton of players to trade that the thought of trading any of our top 3 guys is laughable imo.

Now, to get a difference maker, it does mean trading Westburg, Kjerstad or Cowser and any of those guys should absolutely be on the table for a trade.

I mentioned on WS board that the Orioles should not trade Holliday, Basallo and Bradfield because there are no true duplicate prospects in the system.  Holliday is obvious.  Basallo being a catcher has to be kept.  Bradfield is the only true center fielder prospect in the system. 

[Going Underground]

John Brebbia signed by White Sox. Now Orioles can trade for Cease  O'Hearn ,McCain and McKenna.  Three players for one. Maybe the Orioles are giving up too much.

[24fps]

53 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

John Brebbia signed by White Sox. Now Orioles can trade for Cease  O'Hearn ,McCain and McKenna.  Three players for one. Maybe the Orioles are giving up too much.

I thought I was pretty clued in to major league baseball players, but I'm embarrassed to say that I've never heard of John Brebbia until now.

[OriolesMagic83]

4 hours ago, Morgan423 said:

Different eras, sure, but I just saw someone in another fan forum last night who pointed out (and apologies if it's already been discussed elsewhere in this massive thread and I'm rehashing) that current Cease is extremely statistically similar to Erik Bedard at the time we traded him to the Mariners.

I definitely hadn't caught that, and it's an interesting review of possible value, and if current day can be equated in any way to then. 

Bedard at time of Seattle trade:

Age 28, 5 years in majors, W40-L34, 3.83 ERA, 118 ERA+, 3.59 FIP - 2 years left on contract

Cease, current:

Age 28, 5 years in majors, W43-L35, 3.83 ERA, 113 ERA+, 3.86 FIP - 2 years left on contract



 

Amazing how similar they are.  Whoever trades for Cease has to hope he doesn't have a post trade Bedard like career. 

[wildbillhiccup]

8 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

I agree ... Thats why I would try to pry Braxton Garrett or Lazardo with one of our top guys as the headliner that's not Holiday and of the others Id prefer to hang onto Mayo

I'm not one to nit pick about typos (we're all human), but you've spelled his name incorrectly in four separate posts. It's L U Z A R D O. 

[wildbillhiccup]

9 hours ago, Morgan423 said:

Different eras, sure, but I just saw someone in another fan forum last night who pointed out (and apologies if it's already been discussed elsewhere in this massive thread and I'm rehashing) that current Cease is extremely statistically similar to Erik Bedard at the time we traded him to the Mariners.

I definitely hadn't caught that, and it's an interesting review of possible value, and if current day can be equated in any way to then. 

Bedard at time of Seattle trade:

Age 28, 5 years in majors, W40-L34, 3.83 ERA, 118 ERA+, 3.59 FIP - 2 years left on contract

Cease, current:

Age 28, 5 years in majors, W43-L35, 3.83 ERA, 113 ERA+, 3.86 FIP - 2 years left on contract



 

That is an interesting comparison. For some reason I had forgotten that Bedard had issues with walks as well. Let's hope, if we trade for Cease, things turn out better. 

Early Robbie Ray also makes a pretty good Cease comparison. Like Cease, Ray was a hard thrower with walk issues who had one great season (in 2017) and then regressed after. He wasn't able to get back to that level again until he changed his approach to pitching, cut down on his walks and learned to pitch to contact more. 

Robbie Ray's Stats

Career Stats

Season	Team	LG	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	HLD	SV	SVO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	NP	HB	BB	IBB	SO	AVG	WHIP	GO/AO
2014	DET	AL	1	4	8.16	9	6	0	0	1	0	0	28.2	43	26	26	5	547	0	11	0	19	.350	1.88	0.80
2015	AZ	NL	5	12	3.52	23	23	0	0	0	0	0	127.2	121	56	50	9	2257	8	49	3	119	.255	1.33	0.98
2016	AZ	NL	8	15	4.90	32	32	0	0	0	0	0	174.1	185	105	95	24	3176	6	71	4	218	.267	1.47	1.21
2017	AZ	NL	15	5	2.89	28	28	1	1	0	0	0	162.0	116	57	52	23	2715	5	71	3	218	.199	1.15	0.81
2018	AZ	NL	6	2	3.93	24	24	0	0	0	0	0	123.2	97	55	54	19	2287	5	70	3	165	.216	1.35	0.97
2019	AZ	NL	12	8	4.34	33	33	0	0	0	0	0	174.1	150	91	84	30	3064	5	84	5	235	.234	1.34	0.94
2020	2 teams	-	2	5	6.62	12	11	0	0	0	0	0	51.2	53	40	38	13	1064	1	45	1	68	.261	1.90	0.45
2021	TOR	AL	13	7	2.84	32	32	0	0	0	0	0	193.1	150	62	61	33	3141	4	52	0	248	.210	1.04	0.72
2022	SEA	AL	12	12	3.71	32	32	0	0	0	0	0	189.0	163	80	78	32	3047	7	62	0	212	.231	1.19	0.84
2023	SEA	AL	0	1	8.10	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	3.1	4	5	3	0	91	0	5	0	3	.308	2.70	0.75

[Sports Guy]

But but, he’s not good! That’s what uneducated WS fans say! 

[orioles22]

9 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

But but, he’s not good! That’s what uneducated WS fans say! 

I'd rather keep him and let the White Sox have Westburg.

[SoxFan3344]

4 hours ago, orioles22 said:

I'd rather keep him and let the White Sox have Westburg.

Sounds good, Westburg as the 2nd piece works for us