Cease vs everyone else

[Sports Guy]

26 minutes ago, Rustbelt said:

One thing interesting that WS board continued to bring up is the age of certain prospects.  I certainly understand that 23 year old will be rated higher than 25 year old.  However,  WS normally trade away players before their hitting free agency.  Those 2 years may not make any difference if they become competent major leaguers by 28 year olds.  

It makes sense to get younger prospects.

The problem with that theory is the WS are an archaic organization that is awful at development right now. So, relying on guys that you have to develop for this trade to work makes things sketchy.  

Getting guys that are more developed means they probably end up with a more productive/“sure thing” type return vs what they got.

Even some of the WS fans expressed a worry about that. 

 

[Sports Guy]

I don’t know if Bowden is correct here when he says “by far” but obviously this was the preferred package.

If it was by far the best package, that really tells you how teams viewed Cease and just how much Getz overplayed his hand.

I hope the Os were involved in this behind the scenes. They should have matched or beaten this offer and if the WS say they want pitching and choose the WS, so be it. 

[24fps]

1 hour ago, Rustbelt said:

Many in the WS forum still thinks Cease is one of the best pitcher in MLB and did not get enough for him.  Many in the Padres forum thinks the trade was sever overpay.  This alone makes the trade close to even.  

I think it was an okay trade for the White Sox.  I also think they, and Getz especially, needed the equivalent of the O's Bedard trade and this deal falls well short of that.

In retrospect, unless Getz pivoted from his earlier position, it doesn't look like the O's were as much of a match as many of us thought.  Oh well...

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

They were but so were Os fans.

This trade isn’t really that different than Kjerstad, Norby and Beavers and plenty here would have felt that was an overpay.

Zavala is a stud.  The current non top 100 ranking shouldn't throw anyone off. 18 yo CF that had a .420 OBP in his first full season in A ball.  He's a dude that could be top 25-50 on midseason lists.  As O's fans would we rather have EBJ or Zavala?    

It's funny to laugh at the CWS after an offseason of talking to them, but I think they eventually got what they wanted.  Zavala does have big time upside and would should be a pretty safe floor if he sticks in CF.  The owner said they wanted pitching since they were trading pitching so they got back three arms. 

Oddly, the Padres might've given up the next Juan Soto, and the main prospect they got back for the actual Juan Soto.  

[Just Regular]

Zavala is kind of interesting to weigh and measure now that Elias has brought contemporaries of his age/bonus level into the Orioles organization.

He's short of Basallo, but is he ahead of all the others?    Would we give Braylin Tavera for him today?

Say Iriarte is Luis de Leon, Steven Wilson is Michael Baumann, and Drew Thorpe probably commands more than either Povich or McDermott individually...let's guess Armbruester balances.

Tavera, de Leon, Baumann, Povich and Armbruester.

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Zavala is a stud.  The current non top 100 ranking shouldn't throw anyone off. 18 yo CF that had a .420 OBP in his first full season in A ball.  He's a dude that could be top 25-50 on midseason lists.  As O's fans would we rather have EBJ or Zavala?    

It's funny to laugh at the CWS after an offseason of talking to them, but I think they eventually got what they wanted.  Zavala does have big time upside and would should be a pretty safe floor if he sticks in CF.  The owner said they wanted pitching since they were trading pitching so they got back three arms. 

Oddly, the Padres might've given up the next Juan Soto, and the main prospect they got back for the actual Juan Soto.  

They didn’t get what they thought they would get.

We agree about the upside of Zavala but they thought they were getting a multiple top 50 guys. They thought they should get guys like Mayo, Jones, Basallo, Langford, etc….Maybe Zavala is at that level in a year and that is something I mentioned on that board a few months ago but their response was to get that guy as like the 3rd or 4th player along with those top 25 type guys.

The deal they got was fine and it could turn out to be really good. They should be happy. But they were wrong the entire time about his value and what he was worth. 

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Zavala is kind of interesting to weigh and measure now that Elias has brought contemporaries of his age/bonus level into the Orioles organization.

He's short of Basallo, but is he ahead of all the others?    Would we give Braylin Tavera for him today?

Say Iriarte is Luis de Leon, Steven Wilson is Michael Baumann, and Drew Thorpe probably commands more than either Povich or McDermott individually...let's guess Armbruester balances.

Tavera, de Leon, Baumann, Povich and Armbruester.

That feels like a deal you would have to do but those intl guys are so tough to deal. So much high risk/high reward.

[emmett16]

6 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Zavala is kind of interesting to weigh and measure now that Elias has brought contemporaries of his age/bonus level into the Orioles organization.

He's short of Basallo, but is he ahead of all the others?    Would we give Braylin Tavera for him today?

Say Iriarte is Luis de Leon, Steven Wilson is Michael Baumann, and Drew Thorpe probably commands more than either Povich or McDermott individually...let's guess Armbruester balances.

Tavera, de Leon, Baumann, Povich and Armbruester.

Thats a lot of arms.  I feel like you need 4 MiLB arms to create 1 MLB arm.  Not that anyone one of them is outstanding, but that would be a lot for the org to absorb. 

[sportsfan8703]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

They didn’t get what they thought they would get.

We agree about the upside of Zavala but they thought they were getting a multiple top 50 guys. They thought they should get guys like Mayo, Jones, Basallo, Langford, etc….Maybe Zavala is at that level in a year and that is something I mentioned on that board a few months ago but their response was to get that guy as like the 3rd or 4th player along with those top 25 type guys.

The deal they got was fine and it could turn out to be really good. They should be happy. But they were wrong the entire time about his value and what he was worth. 

I value your opinion alot on this issue, but even that reliever they got at second glance looks like a really good piece.  Maybe racks up saves.  Trimmed his offerings down to FB/SL.  I'd post the baseball savant photo, but I'll save everyone the time... it's a lot of red.  Mid 90's, riding slider, with three options.  Fangraphs had him as the 9th best Padres prospect before last year, and that was in a really good Padres system.

As fun as it would be to just laugh at the CWS after all the ribbing, their GM has had a pretty good offseason with this trade and dealing Santos away to SEA.  Plus, he made a couple nice moves for blocked COF/older prospects.  Similar to what Norby and Stowers have turned into for us.  

The bonus is kudos to Preller/Getz for not just spoon feeding the Yankees a SP right after the Cole deal.  The dark days were dark partly because we were terrible with player develpment, but also partly because the Red Sox and Yankees made whatever moves they wanted and there was no competition like SD and LAD.  

Edited March 14 by sportsfan8703

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

They didn’t get what they thought they would get.

We agree about the upside of Zavala but they thought they were getting a multiple top 50 guys. They thought they should get guys like Mayo, Jones, Basallo, Langford, etc….Maybe Zavala is at that level in a year and that is something I mentioned on that board a few months ago but their response was to get that guy as like the 3rd or 4th player along with those top 25 type guys.

The deal they got was fine and it could turn out to be really good. They should be happy. But they were wrong the entire time about his value and what he was worth. 

Like any fan board, some of their posters’ opinions were more reasonable than others’.   It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.  

[btdart20]

Getz did well.

Thorpe is solid if hyped.  I saw him once on MLb.com vs one of our teams (Bowie maybe).  Some control issues but a good breaking ball.  

I'm less familiar with the rest of the guys.  Iriarte looks like he could be something.  Plus K9 and solid BB9.  I haven't searched videos. 

Zavala did well in A ball.  SSS in AA.  I just watched a highlight reel for him because of @sportsfan8703comparison to EBJ.  

Bad camera angles...  Big leg kick (reminds me of Holliday).  He’s definitely got an uppercut swing but he's also got the ability to adjust and keep the bat in the zone too.  Quite a few oppo HRs and maybe a few park/league factor HRs too.  Should pick up more power with age/muscle. And he looks built for speed too.  I was more impressed than I anticipated.   @Just Regularcomp to Tavera seems fair (maybe with a bit more speed).  I didn't see any defensive highlights though, which is the EBJ equalizer.  

 

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I value your opinion alot on this issue, but even that reliever they got at second glance looks like a really good piece.  Maybe racks up saves.  Trimmed his offerings down to FB/SL.  I'd post the baseball savant photo, but I'll save everyone the time... it's a lot of red.  Mid 90's, riding slider, with three options.  Fangraphs had him as the 9th best Padres prospect before last year, and that was in a really good Padres system.

As fun as it would be to just laugh at the CWS after all the ribbing, their GM has had a pretty good offseason with this trade and dealing Santos away to SEA.  Plus, he made a couple nice moves for blocked COF/older prospects.  Similar to what Norby and Stowers have turned into for us.  

The bonus is kudos to Preller/Getz for not just spoon feeding the Yankees a SP right after the Cole deal.  The dark days were dark partly because we were terrible with player develpment, but also partly because the Red Sox and Yankees made whatever moves they wanted and there was no competition like SD and LAD.  

If that reliever gets his walk rate down, he has good upside. He is older but that matters a little less for a reliever.

[Aristotelian]

46 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Zavala is a stud.  The current non top 100 ranking shouldn't throw anyone off. 18 yo CF that had a .420 OBP in his first full season in A ball.  He's a dude that could be top 25-50 on midseason lists.  As O's fans would we rather have EBJ or Zavala?    

It's funny to laugh at the CWS after an offseason of talking to them, but I think they eventually got what they wanted.  Zavala does have big time upside and would should be a pretty safe floor if he sticks in CF.  The owner said they wanted pitching since they were trading pitching so they got back three arms. 

Oddly, the Padres might've given up the next Juan Soto, and the main prospect they got back for the actual Juan Soto.  

Bradfield had a .494 OBP in A ball FYI. Zavala appears to have more power for sure. 

[RZNJ]

29 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Getz did well.

Thorpe is solid if hyped.  I saw him once on MLb.com vs one of our teams (Bowie maybe).  Some control issues but a good breaking ball.  

I'm less familiar with the rest of the guys.  Iriarte looks like he could be something.  Plus K9 and solid BB9.  I haven't searched videos. 

Zavala did well in A ball.  SSS in AA.  I just watched a highlight reel for him because of @sportsfan8703comparison to EBJ.  

Bad camera angles...  Big leg kick (reminds me of Holliday).  He’s definitely got an uppercut swing but he's also got the ability to adjust and keep the bat in the zone too.  Quite a few oppo HRs and maybe a few park/league factor HRs too.  Should pick up more power with age/muscle. And he looks built for speed too.  I was more impressed than I anticipated.   @Just Regularcomp to Tavera seems fair (maybe with a bit more speed).  I didn't see any defensive highlights though, which is the EBJ equalizer.  

 

Here's Keith Law's take.

 

6. Samuel Zavala, OF

Bats: L | Throws: L | Height: 6-1 | Weight: 175 | Seasonal age in 2024: 19

Zavala made the end of my top 100 last year but would have been 50 or so spots lower after a slew of less-flattering reports from scouts in 2023. He did have a very solid year by the numbers, with a .267/.420/.451 line as an 18-year-old in Low A, ranking in the top 20 in the minors in walks drawn with 96 but with a 26 percent strikeout rate. He does have bat speed, but his swing is long and busy and it’s hard for him to repeat. His defense took a step back last year and he is all but certain to end up in a corner. Scouts commented on a lack of focus on defense and even sometimes in the box as well. He does still have the bat speed and makes hard enough contact to expect 20+ homer power, but the swing and miss is a real concern and the on-field makeup is even more so.

[btdart20]

8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Here's Keith Law's take.

 

6. Samuel Zavala, OF

Bats: L | Throws: L | Height: 6-1 | Weight: 175 | Seasonal age in 2024: 19

Zavala made the end of my top 100 last year but would have been 50 or so spots lower after a slew of less-flattering reports from scouts in 2023. He did have a very solid year by the numbers, with a .267/.420/.451 line as an 18-year-old in Low A, ranking in the top 20 in the minors in walks drawn with 96 but with a 26 percent strikeout rate. He does have bat speed, but his swing is long and busy and it’s hard for him to repeat. His defense took a step back last year and he is all but certain to end up in a corner. Scouts commented on a lack of focus on defense and even sometimes in the box as well. He does still have the bat speed and makes hard enough contact to expect 20+ homer power, but the swing and miss is a real concern and the on-field makeup is even more so.

Thanks.  I almost said his swing looks long, but the camera angles were tough to really say.  Sounds like he's got some Billy Cook/Hudson Haskin in him too.