Santander for Bieber

[Sydnor]

11 minutes ago, Pickles said:

And tbh, I don't hate to deal Santander.  I'd rather deal off the top than from the prospects; I just don't like Bieber.

For good reason. The below is from May. He pitched worse after May.

This is not 2020 Bieber. It’s not 2021 Bieber. It’s not 2022 Bieber. Expecting him to be more than he is now is not a bet that I would make. I just don’t view him as a good enough upgrade that he would be my target. I think all of this is largely a waste of time because I don’t think the Guardians are trading him for Santander for the reasons I outlined earlier.

A few takeaways:

• Bieber implemented the cutter in 2020 and now leans on it far more than he ever has. It carries the highest whiff rate of any of his pitches (30.3 percent), but it’s also the pitch opponents have hit the best (.536 opponent slugging percentage), and there’s been a spike in exit velocity against it this season (91.6 mph, up from 86.1 mph last year).

• There’s been a steady decline in Bieber’s fastball usage over the years.

Fastball whiff rate by year

2020: 25.4 percent
2021: 22.8 percent
2022: 15.1 percent
2023: 6.9 percent

He noted hitters are seeking out his off-speed stuff more and more, so it stands to reason he’ll rely on the cutter, since it looks like his slider, but it’s harder and doesn’t move quite as much.

His curveball remains an imposing pitch (.297 opponent slugging percentage), but not to the devastating degree it was a few years ago. Its whiff rate has dropped considerably, and he throws it far less frequently than he did a couple of years ago.

Curveball whiff rate by year

2019: 48.4 percent
2020: 51.5 percent
2021: 41.8 percent
2022: 40.7 percent
2023: 30.0 percent

https://theathletic.com/4527705/2023/05/31/shane-bieber-changes-guardians/?source=user_shared_article
Guardians ace Shane Bieber keeps reinventing himself as a pitcher

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

It’s a close call.  I’d rather have the three prospects than one year of Santander, but I also prefer two years of Cease to one year of Bieber. Push comes to shove, I’d prefer the Bieber deal, but it’s not an easy choice   

 

 

 

 

If it was Ortiz instead of Kjerstad I’d go for Cease  but as the trade was described I agree with you.

[24fps]

3 minutes ago, Pickles said:

The Cease trade.  And that's getting more in my price range.

On the subject of price range, Bieber and Santander are a wash from a money standpoint.  That means the real issue for this discussion is replacing Santander's offense in 2024- but you get to do that with all your prospects intact including Kjerstad who is the likeliest to slot into RF.  I don't think you get Cease without parting with Kjerstad/Cowser and Ortiz but that's reasonable IMO for a second year of an affordable Cease.  So I'm absolutely willing to gamble on Kjerstad in RF if it means an upgrade in SP.  I also think stressing over Santander's lost production is a waste of time.

One thing that no one is mentioning is that based on history so far, neither Elias or Hyde are going to want to start the season with more than two(?) actual rookies in the lineup on opening day (not including Westburg who is no longer a rookie) That might be a barrier to trading Santander, but it shouldn't be.

[Since1984]

43 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Sure, there are no guarantees in anything.

But aren't there maybe better guarantees than a guy who's K rate has halved in 4 years, and who pitched 11 innings in the second half last year?

You are taking his highest level CY SO rate. take the best and worst years out of the equation and you get a MOR+

Quite an impressive career compared to Santander. The floor is set, if the arm passes the test.

one thing we have yet to consider is Santander having his career year with the Orioles! Not trying to trade this wonderful player, but Bieber is part of this high upside equation.

[Pickles]

20 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

If it was Ortiz instead of Kjerstad I’d go for Cease  but as the trade was described I agree with you.

To be clear, I wouldn't make either trade but my preference is completely about wanting nothing to do with Bieber.  I'd much rather give up 1 year of Santander than 6 of Kjerstad.

[AnythingO's]

37 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Would you prefer trading Kjerstad, Povich, and Fabian for Cease than trading Santander for Bieber?

I'm not trading Kjerstad for Cease straight up. My order for available top 100 guys starts with Ortiz and ends with Cowser but they only get 1. Norby is just outside top 100 and Stowers is a viable MLB prospect if they prefer them to Fabian or Povich.

[jabba72]

45 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

For reason. The below is from May. He pitched worse after May.

This is not 2020 Bieber. It’s not 2021 Bieber. It’s not 2022 Bieber. Expecting him to be more than he is now is not a bet that I would make. I just don’t view him as a enough upgrade that he would be my target. I think all of this is largely a waste of time because I don’t think the Guardians are trading him for Santander for the reasons I outlined earlier.

A few takeaways:

• Bieber implemented the cutter in 2020 and now leans on it far more than he ever has. It carries the highest whiff rate of any of his pitches (30.3 percent), but it’s also the pitch opponents have hit the best (.536 opponent slugging percentage), and there’s been a spike in exit velocity against it this season (91.6 mph, up from 86.1 mph last year).

• There’s been a steady decline in Bieber’s fastball usage over the years.

Fastball whiff rate by year

2020: 25.4 percent
2021: 22.8 percent
2022: 15.1 percent
2023: 6.9 percent

He noted hitters are seeking out his off-speed stuff more and more, so it stands to reason he’ll rely on the cutter, since it looks like his slider, but it’s harder and doesn’t move quite as much.

His curveball remains an imposing pitch (.297 opponent slugging percentage), but not to the devastating degree it was a few years ago. Its whiff rate has dropped considerably, and he throws it far less frequently than he did a couple of years ago.

Curveball whiff rate by year

2019: 48.4 percent
2020: 51.5 percent
2021: 41.8 percent
2022: 40.7 percent
2023: 30.0 percent

https://theathletic.com/4527705/2023/05/31/shane-bieber-changes-guardians/?source=user_shared_article
Guardians ace Shane Bieber keeps reinventing himself as a pitcher

Looking at his 2023 FB whiff rate and Curveball whiff rate these are definitely concerning trends. My guess is he will pitch more like the 2023 Bieber than any previous years. 

I voted yes to this trade but these are eye-opening stats. 

[RZNJ]

52 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

For good reason. The below is from May. He pitched worse after May.

This is not 2020 Bieber. It’s not 2021 Bieber. It’s not 2022 Bieber. Expecting him to be more than he is now is not a bet that I would make. I just don’t view him as a good enough upgrade that he would be my target. I think all of this is largely a waste of time because I don’t think the Guardians are trading him for Santander for the reasons I outlined earlier.

A few takeaways:

• Bieber implemented the cutter in 2020 and now leans on it far more than he ever has. It carries the highest whiff rate of any of his pitches (30.3 percent), but it’s also the pitch opponents have hit the best (.536 opponent slugging percentage), and there’s been a spike in exit velocity against it this season (91.6 mph, up from 86.1 mph last year).

• There’s been a steady decline in Bieber’s fastball usage over the years.

Fastball whiff rate by year

2020: 25.4 percent
2021: 22.8 percent
2022: 15.1 percent
2023: 6.9 percent

He noted hitters are seeking out his off-speed stuff more and more, so it stands to reason he’ll rely on the cutter, since it looks like his slider, but it’s harder and doesn’t move quite as much.

His curveball remains an imposing pitch (.297 opponent slugging percentage), but not to the devastating degree it was a few years ago. Its whiff rate has dropped considerably, and he throws it far less frequently than he did a couple of years ago.

Curveball whiff rate by year

2019: 48.4 percent
2020: 51.5 percent
2021: 41.8 percent
2022: 40.7 percent
2023: 30.0 percent

https://theathletic.com/4527705/2023/05/31/shane-bieber-changes-guardians/?source=user_shared_article
Guardians ace Shane Bieber keeps reinventing himself as a pitcher

June is after May.  In June he had 5 starts, 31 IP, 22 hits, 7 walks, 32 strikeouts, and a 2.90 ERA.  2 ineffective starts in July and then out until the end of September.  If healthy, the guy knows how to pitch.

[Pickles]

21 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

June is after May.  In June he had 5 starts, 31 IP, 22 hits, 7 walks, 32 strikeouts, and a 2.90 ERA.  2 ineffective starts in July and then out until the end of September.  If healthy, the guy knows how to pitch.

Knowing how to pitch is nice.

Being able to pitch is better.

[Sydnor]

35 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

June is after May.  In June he had 5 starts, 31 IP, 22 hits, 7 walks, 32 strikeouts, and a 2.90 ERA.  2 ineffective starts in July and then out until the end of September.  If healthy, the guy knows how to pitch.

Thanks for the help with the calendar. I didn’t know that.

Allow me to reiterate. I have the MLBTV package. I watch a lot of Guardians games because they are my father’s favorite team. My eyes saw a pitcher that is in decline even if he “knows how to pitch.” Kyle Gibson “knew how to pitch.” I don’t want Gibson, and I don’t think Bieber is a significant enough upgrade. The whiff rates back that up.

He also had 2 ineffective starts in June, so in 4 out of 7 starts in June and July he allowed 4 or more runs. I think we can and should be aiming for better than Bieber, and I have no problem including Cowser or Kjerstad or Santander or Hays in a trade for a pitcher that is better than Bieber with more control. 

[RZNJ]

47 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

Thanks for the help with the calendar. I didn’t know that.

Allow me to reiterate. I have the MLBTV package. I watch a lot of Guardians games because they are my father’s favorite team. My eyes saw a pitcher that is in decline even if he “knows how to pitch.” Kyle Gibson “knew how to pitch.” I don’t want Gibson, and I don’t think Bieber is a significant enough upgrade. The whiff rates back that up.

He also had 2 ineffective starts in June, so in 4 out of 7 starts in June and July he allowed 4 or more runs. I think we can and should be aiming for better than Bieber, and I have no problem including Cowser or Kjerstad or Santander or Hays in a trade for a pitcher that is better than Bieber with more control. 

You said he was worse after May.  I gave his stats for June.  They were very good.  Two bad starts in July when he may have been pitching hurt.  Makes sense, since he missed the next two months.   
 

One of the “ineffective” starts in June was a game he held the D-Backs to 2 runs in 7 innings.   He went back out for the 8th and was charged with 3 more runs.  Context is important.  He was a solid pitcher April through June and was particularly good in June.  You can point to reasons not to like him but he produces good results when he pitches.

[Sydnor]

8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You said he was worse after May.  I gave his stats for June.  They were very good.  Two bad starts in July when he may have been pitching hurt.  Makes sense, since he missed the next two months.   
 

One of the “ineffective” starts in June was a game he held the D-Backs to 2 runs in 7 innings.   He went back out for the 8th and was charged with 3 more runs.  Context is important.  He was a solid pitcher April through June and was particularly good in June.  You can point to reasons not to like him but he produces good results when he pitches.

The problem is when you lecture people with stuff like “context is important.” It’s condescending and it’s not necessary. The game was in Arizona. I watched part of it. If you go back out for the 7th, you don’t get a mulligan for the two home runs you gave up because it was the 7th. When you have a 90 mph fastball and you have three off speed pitches that all break in a similar fashion (his changeup is a show me pitch), you have a slim margin for error.

We can disagree on Bieber, and that’s fine, but we don’t have to be condescending. I see a guy that’s in clear decline that doesn’t make any sense unless it’s a larger trade that brings in Clase. I see a team in Cleveland with an owner that doesn’t spend and that’s about to lose $55 million in expected revenue because it has been reported that DSG intends to reject it’s TV deal with the Guardians. If they trade Bieber, I don’t think they’re doing it to bring in a guy who is projected to make $500,000 more in arbitration. I don’t know why I’m wasting my breath.

[Jagwar]

8 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Okay.  You don’t have confidence in the young guys.  I do.  And I don’t care about the landscape changing.

Sometimes you can be such a noodge. It's not about me having no "confidence in the young guys". It's about measured expectations that they will be able to replicate Santander's .800 OPS with 28 HR and 98 RBI. Is it possible? Of course it is possible. Is it so probable that a team with WS aspirations can write it in ink? I don't believe so.   

[Roll Tide]

7 hours ago, Sydnor said:

For good reason. The below is from May. He pitched worse after May.

This is not 2020 Bieber. It’s not 2021 Bieber. It’s not 2022 Bieber. Expecting him to be more than he is now is not a bet that I would make. I just don’t view him as a good enough upgrade that he would be my target. I think all of this is largely a waste of time because I don’t think the Guardians are trading him for Santander for the reasons I outlined earlier.

A few takeaways:

• Bieber implemented the cutter in 2020 and now leans on it far more than he ever has. It carries the highest whiff rate of any of his pitches (30.3 percent), but it’s also the pitch opponents have hit the best (.536 opponent slugging percentage), and there’s been a spike in exit velocity against it this season (91.6 mph, up from 86.1 mph last year).

• There’s been a steady decline in Bieber’s fastball usage over the years.

Fastball whiff rate by year

2020: 25.4 percent
2021: 22.8 percent
2022: 15.1 percent
2023: 6.9 percent

He noted hitters are seeking out his off-speed stuff more and more, so it stands to reason he’ll rely on the cutter, since it looks like his slider, but it’s harder and doesn’t move quite as much.

His curveball remains an imposing pitch (.297 opponent slugging percentage), but not to the devastating degree it was a few years ago. Its whiff rate has dropped considerably, and he throws it far less frequently than he did a couple of years ago.

Curveball whiff rate by year

2019: 48.4 percent
2020: 51.5 percent
2021: 41.8 percent
2022: 40.7 percent
2023: 30.0 percent

https://theathletic.com/4527705/2023/05/31/shane-bieber-changes-guardians/?source=user_shared_article
Guardians ace Shane Bieber keeps reinventing himself as a pitcher

I’d take a shot if he can be had for a modest return. If he can be had for what the @Chicago White Soxis turning his nose at. I’m talking some combo of Norby, Stowers, and maybe one of our better guys.

Edited November 21, 2023 by Roll Tide

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Jagwar said:

Sometimes you can be such a noodge. It's not about me having no "confidence in the young guys". It's about measured expectations that they will be able to replicate Santander's .800 OPS with 28 HR and 98 RBI. Is it possible? Of course it is possible. Is it so probable that a team with WS aspirations can write it in ink? I don't believe so.   

As I said, they don’t have to replace it exactly.