Naoyuki Uwasawa Offer Being Prepared?

[Frobby]

I think it’s instructive, when talking about upside vs. expectations, to look at ZiPS’ ERA median projections vs. the 20th percentile and 80th percentile.  For the O’s main starter candidates (median, 20, 80):

Bradish 3.71, 4.29, 3.16

Kremer 3.86, 4.40, 3.41

Rodriguez 4.07, 4.69, 3.49

Means 4.24, 4.83, 3.78

Wells 4.20, 4.88, 3.70

Hall 4.01, 4.93, 3.37

Irvin 4.58, 5.16, 4.06

I’d consider the 80th percentile projection an “upside” projection even though there’s still a 20% chance the pitcher will do better than that.  As you can see, the gap between the mean projection and the 80th percentile projection is usually a bit more than half a run.   So, that’s a lot of leeway between what is “expected” and what is “hoped.”  

 

 

[Aristotelian]

25 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think it’s instructive, when talking about upside vs. expectations, to look at ZiPS’ ERA median projections vs. the 20th percentile and 80th percentile.  For the O’s main starter candidates (median, 20, 80):

Bradish 3.71, 4.29, 3.16

Kremer 3.86, 4.40, 3.41

Rodriguez 4.07, 4.69, 3.49

Means 4.24, 4.83, 3.78

Wells 4.20, 4.88, 3.70

Hall 4.01, 4.93, 3.37

Irvin 4.58, 5.16, 4.06

I’d consider the 80th percentile projection an “upside” projection even though there’s still a 20% chance the pitcher will do better than that.  As you can see, the gap between the mean projection and the 80th percentile projection is usually a bit more than half a run.   So, that’s a lot of leeway between what is “expected” and what is “hoped.”  

 

 

Surprised to see Kremer's median ahead of Grayson and Means. Are we underrating Kremer?

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Surprised to see Kremer's median ahead of Grayson and Means. Are we underrating Kremer?

ZiPS loves Kremer for some reason. It was really aggressive with him last year, too. It projected 3.53 for him last year as the median.  

I do think some people here do underrate Kremer, however.
 

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

4.00 - 4.25 is Iwasawa’s upside.  Cease’s similar upside is probably in the 3.00 - 3.25 range.  

My baseline expectation for Cease as an Oriole is in the 3.70 - 3.95 range.  If he’s still on the Sox, then 4.00 - 4.25 due to their terrible defense.  
 

I’m not giving away the house for 3.9

[Flash- bd]

20 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Surprised to see Kremer's median ahead of Grayson and Means. Are we underrating Kremer?

Yes, Kremer is underrated around here. 

[RZNJ]

Baseball America Scouting Report

Naoyuki Uwasawa, RHP

Born: Feb. 6, 1994. B-T: R-R. HT: 6-2. WT: 194.

Track Record: Uwasawa began his career as a rotation-mate of Shohei Ohtani with the Nippon Ham Fighters and emerged as their top starter after Ohtani departed for MLB. Despite a lack of big stuff, Uwasawa blossomed into a three-time All-Star atop Nippon Ham’s rotation and had one of his best seasons in 2023. He went 9-9, 2.96 in a career-high 170 innings and was posted after the season.

Scouting Report: Uwasawa is a finesse righthander who relies on command and changing speeds. His fastball sits just 89-91 mph and tops out at 93, but he effectively locates it on the edges of the strike zone to avoid hard contact. His most-used secondary is a vertical 80-82 mph slider with decent depth, while his mid-80s splitter with diving action is an average pitch he leans on to get outs. He also mixes in a looping, below-average mid-70s curveball, below-average 85-88 mph cutter and fringy 80-82 mph changeup. Uwasawa mostly relies on keeping hitters guessing with his deep arsenal and inducing soft contact. He doesn’t miss many bats and averaged just 6.6 strikeouts per nine innings last year. He is a good athlete with a fluid delivery and clean arm action and has above-average control.  

The Future: Uwasawa’s lack of stuff will be tested in MLB. He projects to be a low-end No. 5 or depth starter who relies on hitting his spots to be effective.

BA Grade: 40/Medium

Scouting Grades

Fastball: 40. Curveball: 40. Slider: 45. Cutter: 40. Splitter: 50. Changeup: 45. Control: 55

Edited December 4, 2023 by RZNJ

[clapdiddy]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Baseball America Scouting Report

Fastball: 45. Curveball: 45. Slider: 55. Splitter: 55. Control: 40

Naoyuki Uwasawa, RHP

Born: Feb. 6, 1994. B-T: R-R. HT: 6-2. WT: 194.

Track Record: Uwasawa began his career as a rotation-mate of Shohei Ohtani with the Nippon Ham Fighters and emerged as their top starter after Ohtani departed for MLB. Despite a lack of big stuff, Uwasawa blossomed into a three-time All-Star atop Nippon Ham’s rotation and had one of his best seasons in 2023. He went 9-9, 2.96 in a career-high 170 innings and was posted after the season.

Scouting Report: Uwasawa is a finesse righthander who relies on command and changing speeds. His fastball sits just 89-91 mph and tops out at 93, but he effectively locates it on the edges of the strike zone to avoid hard contact. His most-used secondary is a vertical 80-82 mph slider with decent depth, while his mid-80s splitter with diving action is an average pitch he leans on to get outs. He also mixes in a looping, below-average mid-70s curveball, below-average 85-88 mph cutter and fringy 80-82 mph changeup. Uwasawa mostly relies on keeping hitters guessing with his deep arsenal and inducing soft contact. He doesn’t miss many bats and averaged just 6.6 strikeouts per nine innings last year. He is a good athlete with a fluid delivery and clean arm action and has above-average control.  

The Future: Uwasawa’s lack of stuff will be tested in MLB. He projects to be a low-end No. 5 or depth starter who relies on hitting his spots to be effective.

BA Grade: 40/Medium

Scouting Grades

Fastball: 40. Curveball: 40. Slider: 45. Cutter: 40. Splitter: 50. Changeup: 45. Control: 55

Doesn't sound like a guy that's going to move the needle. 

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

Doesn't sound like a guy that's going to move the needle. 

He might move the needle in the wrong direction.  Lol

[interloper]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Baseball America Scouting Report

Fastball: 45. Curveball: 45. Slider: 55. Splitter: 55. Control: 40

Naoyuki Uwasawa, RHP

Born: Feb. 6, 1994. B-T: R-R. HT: 6-2. WT: 194.

Track Record: Uwasawa began his career as a rotation-mate of Shohei Ohtani with the Nippon Ham Fighters and emerged as their top starter after Ohtani departed for MLB. Despite a lack of big stuff, Uwasawa blossomed into a three-time All-Star atop Nippon Ham’s rotation and had one of his best seasons in 2023. He went 9-9, 2.96 in a career-high 170 innings and was posted after the season.

Scouting Report: Uwasawa is a finesse righthander who relies on command and changing speeds. His fastball sits just 89-91 mph and tops out at 93, but he effectively locates it on the edges of the strike zone to avoid hard contact. His most-used secondary is a vertical 80-82 mph slider with decent depth, while his mid-80s splitter with diving action is an average pitch he leans on to get outs. He also mixes in a looping, below-average mid-70s curveball, below-average 85-88 mph cutter and fringy 80-82 mph changeup. Uwasawa mostly relies on keeping hitters guessing with his deep arsenal and inducing soft contact. He doesn’t miss many bats and averaged just 6.6 strikeouts per nine innings last year. He is a good athlete with a fluid delivery and clean arm action and has above-average control.  

The Future: Uwasawa’s lack of stuff will be tested in MLB. He projects to be a low-end No. 5 or depth starter who relies on hitting his spots to be effective.

BA Grade: 40/Medium

Scouting Grades

Fastball: 40. Curveball: 40. Slider: 45. Cutter: 40. Splitter: 50. Changeup: 45. Control: 55

Why are there two different grades?

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, interloper said:

Why are there two different grades?

Sorry. The first grades are from the previous report on Yuki Matsui which wasn’t that great either.  Low leverage reliever.

Edited December 4, 2023 by RZNJ

[wildcard]

Doesn't sound like he would beat out Wells for the 5th starter.

[interloper]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Sorry. The first grades are from the previous report on Imanaga which wasn’t that great either.  #5 starter.

Gotcha. Yeah it's a toss up to me if he would be a serviceable MLer. I'm not sure how legit this rumor was to begin with, but I guess we'll find out. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

4 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

Doesn't sound like a guy that's going to move the needle. 

I'm ok with Uwasawa being a back end of the rotation/depth move. What's not ok is Uwasawa being the prized pitching acquisition of the offseason if the Orioles are seriously trying to make it further next postseason.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

Gotcha. Yeah it's a toss up to me if he would be a serviceable MLer. I'm not sure how legit this rumor was to begin with, but I guess we'll find out. 

I corrected my post.  Those first grades were for Yuki Matsui.   None of the Japanese pitchers, besides Yamamoto, sound all that great.  Imánaga was described as a 4/5 starter and a swing man on a contender. Sounds like a description of Cole Irvin.

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Doesn't sound like he would beat out Wells for the 5th starter.

If we do it, it’s a depth move.  On the face of it, I’m not enthused.  But you never know.