Framber Valdez vs everyone else

[George Zuverink]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

It was sarcasm.  Of course they're aware.

I'm simply wondering if they have some other data sets that they look at that don't necessarily invalidate the statcast information, but place it secondary.  At first glance, I agree, the statcast numbers aren't totally impressive and he doesn't miss a lot of bats.

But if the statcast numbers were the only thing to go on, I'd wonder why they'd want to target him, too.  There's no way to tell what they're looking at when they're evaluating someone like this, but I'd love to know.  

I took it as a very dry, funny comment on how analytically oriented and thorough the O’s have become.

[oriole]

20 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

 

First of all, we don't know what the Astros are demanding.  I also didn't say you said that you'd give up Mayo AND Basallo.

To dismiss our prospects as "fielding half an active roster that barely have gotten their feet wet" is a bit silly, too.  I just saw the Rangers win a World Series with Evan Carter (who I'd kill to have) and Josh Jung.  Fielding half an active roster with guys like Basallo, Holliday, Cowser and Mayo isn't a bad thing.  

Valdez is a really good pitcher, but I don't think he's in the class of a top flight ace like Gerrit Cole.  While Framber has had some really good moments and really good seasons, what can't be ignored is what SG pointed out as well as some others...he outpitches his peripherals and he doesn't miss a lot of bats.

If you think Ortiz, Beavers and Norby is way too light, fine.  Add someone else outside of Mayo, Basallo, Cowser and Holliday.  Let's also remember we're not someone like the Angels who don't have any prospects to trade and haven't graduated any legit prospects in recent memory.  We've got outstanding baseball people running an outstanding operation when it comes to scouting, drafting and developing talent, doing business with the Orioles should carry that premium that goes along with it.  Guys like Ortiz, Norby, Stowers, Beavers, whoever else would be top 5 guys for a lot of other systems. Just because they're not top 5 guys in our system doesn't mean they wouldn't have value for a system like the Astros who have depleted their system and were ranked last in the second half of last year.  

Even top prospects fail. Look at any top 100 list from the past and it’ll be littered with guys who were never able to make that jump. 
 

If we’re looking at the Rangers, then it’s worth noting they also have a healthy amount of proven major league players in conjunction with those rookies. The Orioles have some veterans but they’ve also got a tremendous amount of unknowns. We’re looking at a team that is going to put about 4 rookies into the lineup every night. Not to mention the rotation is a bunch of high ceiling but unproven starters and injury risks. There needs to be an anchor and you’re going to need to overpay to get them. 
 

I’m just trying to be realistic as to what it will cost to get a SP. Valdez is not a number 1, but that what makes him attainable at all. No one is going to trade a quality pitcher for our spare parts even if our spare parts are relatively good prospects. Plenty of other teams can match someone like Ortiz. Can they match Mayo? We could, and there’d still be a full infield of young players with high ceilings on the team in 2024.

[oriole]

35 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

I will never defend JA but actually for the fact I do not believe Valdez is a 25-35 million dollar asset. So the Astros eating 5-10 million in the trade would make sense.

Those aren’t guaranteed contracts. We could just as easily DFA any of those players with pretty minimal obligation to them. 

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, oriole said:

Even top prospects fail. Look at any top 100 list from the past and it’ll be littered with guys who were never able to make that jump. 
 

If we’re looking at the Rangers, then it’s worth noting they also have a healthy amount of proven major league players in conjunction with those rookies. The Orioles have some veterans but they’ve also got a tremendous amount of unknowns. We’re looking at a team that is going to put about 4 rookies into the lineup every night. Not to mention the rotation is a bunch of high ceiling but unproven starters and injury risks. There needs to be an anchor and you’re going to need to overpay to get them. 
 

I’m just trying to be realistic as to what it will cost to get a SP. Valdez is not a number 1, but that what makes him attainable at all. No one is going to trade a quality pitcher for our spare parts even if our spare parts are relatively good prospects. Plenty of other teams can match someone like Ortiz. Can they match Mayo? We could, and there’d still be a full infield of young players with high ceilings on the team in 2024.

If the argument is "even top prospects fail" which is followed by "look at past top 100 lists and you'll find guys who couldn't make the jump" then all prospects should be valued roughly the same because, as you noted, top prospects fail and if top prospects fail, then what's the point?  Anyone can bust, so they're all roughly the same value.

If top prospects fail, then the value of Basallo should be equal to the value of Norby because either one of them can not pan out just the same. 

Therefore, the Astros should accept Norby instead of Basallo because Basallo could bust.  So could Norby, but whatever.  

If we're looking at the Rangers, it certainly is worth noting that they have a healthy amount of proven major leaguers.  No one was arguing otherwise.  

I'm glad you can agree that Valdez isn't a number 1.  No, plenty of other teams can't match a glove like Ortiz, it's elite.  To downgrade our guys outside of our top 4 or 5 as "spare parts" is selling them short.  

 

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Extending Burnes, who has seen his stats the decline the last few years, is a bad idea.

1.069 WHIP … 200 Ks in 193 innings, consistent 6.6 Hit per game. 28/32/32 starts over 3 seasons. I don’t see the problem! 

[interloper]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Extending Burnes, who has seen his stats the decline the last few years, is a bad idea.

He seems dead-set on testing FA anyway:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/corbin-burnes-trade-rumors-extension-free-agent.html

[TommyPickles]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I would add him but I wouldn’t give up more for him than I would for Cease.

Reading through this board, I often find myself agreeing with @Sports Guy. One of my favorite posters.

That said, I gotta disagree with you here.

I would give up a good bit more for Valdez than Cease, even with the higher arbitration price tag. 

 

Career ERA:

Valdez- 3.40

Cease- 3.83

Career FIP:

Valdez- 3.61

Cease- 3.86

2023 ERA:

Valdez- 3.45

Cease- 4.58

2023 IP:

Valdez- 198.0

Cease- 177.0

Postseason IP:

Valdez- 80.2

Cease- 2.2

 

Maybe I'm giving too much credit to postseason experience and I just have PTSD from watching the Astros in October for so many years...

Edited December 20, 2023 by TommyPickles

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

Reading through this board, I often find myself agreeing with @Sports Guy. One of my favorite posters.

That said, I gotta disagree with you here.

I would give up a good bit more for Valdez than Cease, even with the higher arbitration price tag. 

 

Career ERA:

Valdez- 3.40

Cease- 3.83

Career FIP:

Valdez- 3.61

Cease- 3.86

2023 ERA:

Valdez- 3.45

Cease- 4.58

2023 IP:

Valdez- 198.0

Cease- 177.0

Postseason IP:

Valdez- 80.2

Cease- 2.2

 

Maybe I'm giving too much credit to postseason experience and I just have PTSD from watching the Astros in October for so many years...

I’m not a huge fan of pitchers who don’t miss bats and rely on the defense to bail them out.

Thats Valdez. He outperforms his peripherals.

Now, there is a lot to like about him too, as you pointed out.

The problem is that he is now 30 and he is expensive and likely costs more in trade than others.

 

[LookinUp]

3 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

It was sarcasm.  Of course they're aware.

I'm simply wondering if they have some other data sets that they look at that don't necessarily invalidate the statcast information, but place it secondary.  At first glance, I agree, the statcast numbers aren't totally impressive and he doesn't miss a lot of bats.

But if the statcast numbers were the only thing to go on, I'd wonder why they'd want to target him, too.  There's no way to tell what they're looking at when they're evaluating someone like this, but I'd love to know.  

I think their data is a marriage of advanced statcast stuff like spin axis and some insight into mechanical flaws like release point. So while they might see a guy with an 80th percentile spin rate (making this up), they may see the same guy as either maxing his potential already or having more with certain mechanical changes. 

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Essentially not parting with any of our remaining big four prospects (Cowser (yep, I said it), Mayo, Basallo, Holliday) but giving up the second tier guys who are still plenty good but not identified as key cornerstones for the future.

You are definitely higher on Cowser than I am. I'm hoping other teams really value him though so he can be a headliner in a trade.

[HakunaSakata]

10 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

Reading through this board, I often find myself agreeing with @Sports Guy. One of my favorite posters.

That said, I gotta disagree with you here.

I would give up a good bit more for Valdez than Cease, even with the higher arbitration price tag. 

Valdez is probably going to command more than Cease, but is he worth more? I'd personally rather pay less for the younger pitcher with better stuff who actually misses bats who has a better shot of helping us both short term AND long term. Or if we opt to go the short term route, I'd rather trade for Burnes who also has better stuff than Valdez. 

[Just Regular]

I'm sure the Sigbot's Framber dossier is thorough.

He's an interesting cat.   He is at least the #1 of the Framber-Javier-Garcia-Urquidy group that extended the Astros run.

Their analytics group discovering basically an entire rotation in overlooked Latin American kids was an amazing accomplishment.

I'd wonder if his arm is largely used up, but he's close enough to one of the world's best pitchers its part of Elias' due diligence to discover his acquisition cost if the Astros are indeed retooling.     For the juggernaut they've been, there's no way he should be available.

He's on the short list in recent years of players Luhnow's Astros knew stuff about that others didn't that helped make them champions.

[Moose Milligan]

28 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I think their data is a marriage of advanced statcast stuff like spin axis and some insight into mechanical flaws like release point. So while they might see a guy with an 80th percentile spin rate (making this up), they may see the same guy as either maxing his potential already or having more with certain mechanical changes. 

You are definitely higher on Cowser than I am. I'm hoping other teams really value him though so he can be a headliner in a trade.

I think that's a safe assessment of their data, plus some other stuff that's not readily available to schmucks like us on a message board. 

It's not that I'm particularly high on Cowser compared to the other guys, it's just that I think it's absolutely silly that so many people here are so quick to write him off or part with him in a trade based on 61 at bats.  On a message board where the "small sample size" accusation gets thrown around practically every day, posters conveniently ignore that when it comes to him.  If the inverse were true, if Cowser absolutely raked for those 61 at bats and got sidelined something like a pulled hamstring and couldn't make it back, they'd absolutely have him pencilled into future plans rather than a lead trade chip for Dylan Cease.  

Heston Kjerstad hits two dingers in 30 at bats and this board is head over heels. 

So again, it's not that I'm particularly high on Cowser, it's just that I think the arguments against him are silly due to the "small sample size" that's conveniently ignored when discussing his future as an Oriole.  

[LookinUp]

8 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

So again, it's not that I'm particularly high on Cowser, it's just that I think the arguments against him are silly due to the "small sample size" that's conveniently ignored when discussing his future as an Oriole.  

I'm sure the SSS last year in Baltimore left a bad taste in all of our mouths, but the 107 Ks in AAA did too. He was a 2 true outcomes type of guy last year, and I worry that his approach won't translate to the majors. He had one game in the AAA playoffs last year that was really terrible. That said, I did read @Tony-OH's write-up on him, so I still like Cowser as a prospect. I just don't think he's so awesome that he needs to be protected against a trade like the top 3. 

As hitters go, I really want this team building around Gunnar, Adley, Holliday, Basallo and Mayo. Kjerstad is next for me, but not untouchable. After that I think we have a lot of guys that we can use to fill in a great lineup.

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m not a huge fan of pitchers who don’t miss bats and rely on the defense to bail them out.

Thats Valdez. He outperforms his peripherals.

Now, there is a lot to like about him too, as you pointed out.

The problem is that he is now 30 and he is expensive and likely costs more in trade than others.

 

I agree, I like pitchers who don't miss bats.  

That said, if we're going to look at Framber's statcast stuff, it's worth pointing out that his hard hit % and average exit velocity have been consistently very good to elite over the years.  Yeah, that means the defense has to bail him out a little bit, but batters don't square him up at a good clip.  If someone's going to give the defense chances, I think we'd all agree that we wouldn't want the balls to be hard hit.

His career average is 8.8 k/9.  That's not elite, but it's not, like, Jeff Ballard-level bad.

 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

I agree, I like pitchers who don't miss bats.  

That said, if we're going to look at Framber's statcast stuff, it's worth pointing out that his hard hit % and average exit velocity have been consistently very good to elite over the years.  Yeah, that means the defense has to bail him out a little bit, but batters don't square him up at a good clip.  If someone's going to give the defense chances, I think we'd all agree that we wouldn't want the balls to be hard hit.

His career average is 8.8 k/9.  That's not elite, but it's not, like, Jeff Ballard-level bad.

 

Huh?  Are we talking about the same player?

His exit velo and HH% numbers are poor and have been. 
 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/framber-valdez-664285?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb