Framber Valdez vs everyone else

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

I said WHY Valdez had a bad WHIP. 

Valdez was 13th of all qualifying ML pitchers in WHIP last year.  Why do you keep describing it as bad?

Edited December 20, 2023 by RZNJ

[HakunaSakata]

19 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Valdez was 13th of all qualifying ML pitchers in WHIP last year.  Why do you keep describing it as bad?

The whole argument was that Valdez doesn't miss enough at bats. That's pretty evident when you look his career 1.22 WHIP (I said historically) and you see that he has a decent walk rate. The only other way to inflate your WHIP to that level , if you aren't walking batters, is to give up hits. Ergo he doesn't miss enough bats.

[RZNJ]

9 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

The whole argument was that Valdez doesn't miss enough at bats. That's pretty evident when you look his career 1.22 WHIP (I said historically) and you see that he has a decent walk rate. The only other way to inflate your WHIP to that level , if you aren't walking batters, is to give up hits. Ergo he doesn't miss enough bats.

Doesn’t miss enough bats for what?  His whiff percentage is in the 56%.  His fastball velocity is 73%.   His fastball run value is 7 while Cease was negative.   Ok. Cease misses more bats.  Does that one stat make one pitcher better than another?   I’d be happy with either.   Tough to say one is better than the other.  It’s not that simple.

[waroriole]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Doesn’t miss enough bats for what?  His whiff percentage is in the 56%.  His fastball velocity is 73%.   His fastball run value is 7 while Cease was negative.   Ok. Cease misses more bats.  Does that one stat make one pitcher better than another?   I’d be happy with either.   Tough to say one is better than the other.  It’s not that simple.

Yeah I’d say they’re fairly comparable results wise. Cease gets more Ks, but also walks more. Valdez is a big GB pitcher, which explains why he’s able to limit runs despite “not missing bats.” Also, it’s not like everyone is putting it in play against Valdez. His K/9 rate is basically 9. 

[Malike]

Valdez is also a ground freaking ball machine. I get that he's a geriatric 30-year-old, but he might make it through a season or two if they can get him some help walking to the mound. Also, Cease's numbers are trending down as well and Valdez' pitch values are still very high. I'm not saying that I'd trade for him, but I also am not interested in Cease. To say that Cease is the clear choice here is not close to accurate.

[BRobinsonfan]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Actually, I thought I saw his whiff% was in the 40s

He’s right about average. His swing stR% right around average. Same with the shift percentage. 
 

Either way, he doesn’t miss enough bats for me especially when talking about total cost.

To me, both Valdez and Cease are legitimate TOR starters, and as such, I'd be thrilled to have either one of them… for the right price. And that's what it really comes down to. If we're prepared to make a serious run for a WS championship now, either one would be a great addition. I guess I'd be prepared to give up a little bit more for Cease, but I don't want to dramatically overpay for a 30 year old pitcher, even if he's a front line starter. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, BRobinsonfan said:

To me, both Valdez and Cease are legitimate TOR starters, and as such, I'd be thrilled to have either one of them… for the right price. And that's what it really comes down to. If we're prepared to make a serious run for a WS championship now, either one would be a great addition. I guess I'd be prepared to give up a little bit more for Cease, but I don't want to dramatically overpay for a 30 year old pitcher, even if he's a front line starter. 

Right…we would be lucky to have either. I like Cease’s profile more, assuming the Os can get him turned around some…if the Os don’t want to go after him, it tells me they see something they don’t like and if that’s the case, they have earned that benefit of the doubt.

I think it’s clear that they like him though.

[Jim'sKid26]

1 hour ago, HakunaSakata said:

Hey it's "him" here. Both pitchers have:

1. Similar builds.

2. Similar K rates (below average for aces).

3. Similar below average fastballs. 

4. Have similarly outperformed their expected stats for the majority of their successful seasons. 

So yeah, they are very similar in that regard and I'm not sure why you would think one being right handed and one being left handed is a deal breaker when comparing two pitchers. 

1. You've made that point. We got it. 

2. In 16 years Cueto has a K/9 of 7.9 and never had a "K rate" of more than 8.9. Valdez has a career K/9 of 8.8 and has had two years (out of his 6) above 9. Not sure what defines a "K rate for "aces," but whatever.

3. As I mentioned in previous posts, Cueto throws a 4SFB while Valdez throws a sinker. They are very different pitches. 

4. If we use FIP and xFIP to address this point then Cueto has outperformed his xFIP 8 years out of his 16 year career. Valdez has only done it once, in the COVID shortened 2020 season. So I'm not seeing a similarity there either.

So they are both shorter than average, thickish guys who throw baseballs for a living. Other than that, not all that similar. Got it.

[24fps]

Valdez is left-handed.  That's a good thing but the O's would be discernibly better with any of Valdez, Cease or Luzardo regardless of the increasingly exotic statistical hair-splitting.

 

[emmett16]

2 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

Poetic justice I guess. Maybe one of the mods can be kind of enough to delete the duplicates for me. 

Go to your post. Click on the three dots (…) in the top right-hand corner.  Underneath of  “edit”, you’ll see “delete”. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

Go to your post. Click on the three dots (…) in the top right-hand corner.  Underneath of  “edit”, you’ll see “delete”. 

They might not have that functionality.

Edited December 21, 2023 by Can_of_corn

[emmett16]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They might not have that functionality.

10 4.  Didn’t think of that.  

[Billy F-Face3]

A package with Colton Cowser as the headliner might be a way to get a deal done. They will also want a capable pitcher to replace Valdez. I doubt they would want infielders unless they are extra young high valued prospects, that could be ready when Berkman and Altuve's contracts expire. The only infield position that's just about ready for MLB they might want is 1B and C.

 

Of all the starting pitchers rumored to be on the market, if I ignore the fact we don't pay players, I'd say my preference is something like this...

1a) Valdez

1b) Snell (costs no prospects)

1c) Burnes

4) Yamamoto

5) Montgomery

6) Luzardo

7)Kershaw

Stroman

9) Imanaga

10) Cease

Anything farther down the list would have to have a criteria of being cheap lottery ticket, plus a LHP who has had success in previous seasons, and might have a shot at rebounding to one of those types of previous good seasons. (I.E. Ryu, Wood, Manaea, etc)

[Billy F-Face3]

Just now, Billy F-Face3 said:

Stroman

This was purely coincidental because apparently the message board code for an 8 with a ) creates an emoji.

 

[HakunaSakata]

11 hours ago, emmett16 said:

Go to your post. Click on the three dots (…) in the top right-hand corner.  Underneath of  “edit”, you’ll see “delete”. 

I think the Delete option must be limited to plus members. The only options I have are Report and Share. It's not really that big a deal. It's not the first time that I've looked like a doofus and I'm sure it won't be the last.