Will Ryan O'Hearn be traded?

[Spy Fox]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Did the league see a big change overall due to the elimination of the shift?

Not really.

I don't think that was the cause of his resurgence.

Has anyone published an end of season analysis of the effects of the shift ban? A quick search and all I could find was this Fangraphs piece from May 30. I imagine the year-long results would be similar (a slight BABIP improvement on lefty grounders), but I'd be curious to see. 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

Has anyone published an end of season analysis of the effects of the shift ban? A quick search and all I could find was this Fangraphs piece from May 30. I imagine the year-long results would be similar (a slight BABIP improvement on lefty grounders), but I'd be curious to see. 

Haven't seen anything but I'm sure something will be out soon.

I wasn't expecting the result to be worth the cost.

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

In 2022 his OPS was higher versus RHP than LHP.

In 2021 his OPS was higher versus LHP than RHP.

in 2020 his OPS was higher versus RHP than LHP.

If his struggles against RHP continue into this season you think about it.  I don't think this is "that point".

Guys have one year surges and struggles every year.

The sample size against LHP is always going to be smaller and therefore have more variability , especially with the short 2020 season. 
 

Of course there are up and downs, but I’m leaning more toward this being the case. I think the orioles are aware of it too, hence acquiring O’Hearn and Lewin Diaz last offseason while dropping Mountcastle down from 2 in the lineup or benching him against RHP entirely. 

[sportsfan8703]

.911 OPS in High Leverage spots.  That's pretty good. 

His BABIP was down the last two months of the season.  It's been a bit since the end of the regular season.  He could've simply just hit into some bad luck and/or faced more LHP with expanded bullpens at the end of the year.  

[Spy Fox]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Haven't seen anything but I'm sure something will be out soon.

I wasn't expecting the result to be worth the cost.

What's the cost?

[wildbillhiccup]

I'm late to this thread, but Mountcastle should be traded since he has more value and then they can split time between Kjerstad and O'Hearn at 1B and DH. I really want Kjerstad to get 500 ABs this season. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, brooooksy said:

The sample size against LHP is always going to be smaller and therefore have more variability , especially with the short 2020 season. 
 

Of course there are up and downs, but I’m leaning more toward this being the case. I think the orioles are aware of it too, hence acquiring O’Hearn and Lewin Diaz last offseason while dropping Mountcastle down from 2 in the lineup or benching him against RHP entirely. 

You can lean however you with but I don't think evidence supports much of anything.

Obviously 2023 was extreme and more of that would validate your position.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

What's the cost?

Rewarding one dimensional players.

Eliminating on the field innovation.

Getting rid of really cool plays like this:

I'll take watching 50 Chris Davis hitting into the shift if it means I get one of those.

[Can_of_corn]

26 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

His BABIP was down the last two months of the season.  It's been a bit since the end of the regular season.  He could've simply just hit into some bad luck and/or faced more LHP with expanded bullpens at the end of the year.  

BABIP

Career-288

June- 370

July- 368

August- 327

Sept/Oct- 313

I don't think he was getting unlucky.

Edited January 10 by Can_of_corn

[Spy Fox]

20 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Rewarding one dimensional players.

Eliminating on the field innovation.

Getting rid of really cool plays like this:

I'll take watching 50 Chris Davis hitting into the shift if it means I get one of those.

If the impact was so low, is it really rewarding one dimensional players? 

I was a shift ban skeptic but I liked it once I saw it in action. My perception was that it didn't change the meta much, but it made hard hit balls a bit more likely to be hits and softer hit balls a bit more likely to be outs. I'm now sure how to prove if that's right or not so that's why I was hoping to find an essay or two out there. 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

If the impact was so low, is it really rewarding one dimensional players? 

I was a shift ban skeptic but I liked it once I saw it in action. My perception was that it didn't change the meta much, but it made hard hit balls a bit more likely to be hits and softer hit balls a bit more likely to be outs. I'm now sure how to prove if that's right or not so that's why I was hoping to find an essay or two out there. 

Sure it is.  Not rewarding them significantly but yea, it's rewarding guys that can't adapt.

 

[Can_of_corn]

19 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

If the impact was so low, is it really rewarding one dimensional players? 

I was a shift ban skeptic but I liked it once I saw it in action. My perception was that it didn't change the meta much, but it made hard hit balls a bit more likely to be hits and softer hit balls a bit more likely to be outs. I'm now sure how to prove if that's right or not so that's why I was hoping to find an essay or two out there. 

And it makes cool plays like Machado made impossible.

We have an infielder with the ability to make amazing plays as a sort of defensive rover and now it's gone so an O'Hearn type can pull a few more singles into right field because he doesn't have the ability to learn to hit the ball the other way.

[Billy F-Face3]

Don't forget that Hyde had Urias playing 1st base a number of times when Mountcastle was out. I don't recommend that because Urias isn't used to the angle and made some fielding mistakes in that spot, but Hyde seems to have him in the top 4 of the depth chart at that position.

Also, Santander is too valuable to us in several ways to trade. Even if his team control is running out.

O'Hearn was one of our key players to rally the team when the other bats were struggling. He also fits good in a platoon.

I don't see too many changes at 1st base to begin the 2024 season. That may change if Mayo tears it up in the minors and moves from 3rd to 1st base.

[CaptainRedbeard]

O’Hearn, Urias and Mateo are all guys on cheap deals who have positive value as assets as bench players but won’t return anything notable in a trade. I think Elias has shown he really values depth even when it seems unnecessary (Frazier signing) and isn’t keen to trade a player of this type for marginal return even if it means leaving a prospect in AAA longer than they need (holding Urias and Mateo through the trade deadline and keeping Ortiz in AAA).

The O’Hearn situation now is pretty similar with Cowser and Kjerstad as the trade deadline with Urias/Mateo was for Ortiz. And Ortiz could get a spot now with Frazier moving on, but Holliday’s going to be up very soon if not Opening Day so he’ll be left in the same position with Urias/Mateo again.

If we don’t see a trade for a SP, we could see a trade of one of O’Hearn/Urias/Mateo at the end of Spring Training for a marginal return to open up roster space for a prospect. But I’m not expecting it, that’s not been Elias’ MO and I think Elias’ mentality is to stack depth and let injuries sort it out. The Orioles were pretty fortunate with injuries in 2023 but that won’t be the case every year. 

[sportsfan8703]

11 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

O’Hearn, Urias and Mateo are all guys on cheap deals who have positive value as assets as bench players but won’t return anything notable in a trade. I think Elias has shown he really values depth even when it seems unnecessary (Frazier signing) and isn’t keen to trade a player of this type for marginal return even if it means leaving a prospect in AAA longer than they need (holding Urias and Mateo through the trade deadline and keeping Ortiz in AAA).

The O’Hearn situation now is pretty similar with Cowser and Kjerstad as the trade deadline with Urias/Mateo was for Ortiz. And Ortiz could get a spot now with Frazier moving on, but Holliday’s going to be up very soon if not Opening Day so he’ll be left in the same position with Urias/Mateo again.

If we don’t see a trade for a SP, we could see a trade of one of O’Hearn/Urias/Mateo at the end of Spring Training for a marginal return to open up roster space for a prospect. But I’m not expecting it, that’s not been Elias’ MO and I think Elias’ mentality is to stack depth and let injuries sort it out. The Orioles were pretty fortunate with injuries in 2023 but that won’t be the case every year. 

Spot on.  We need bench players.  There's no sense trading away valuable depth, and there's no sense having prospects in bench spots.  Let them play everyday in AAA to get reps.  

One vet that I do think is on thin ice is Cionel Perez.  We had the "luxury" of carrying him last year when he struggled, but that's because Irvin had an option, and Hall was being reworked in season.  This year Perez is slated to be one of three lefties in the pen with no options.  The other two being Coloumbe and Irvin.  Perez is even in his arb years now.  His performance is outweighed by the appeal of having an optionable spot in the pen.  Being as we now have some good AAA depth up/down arms.  Perez has to be lights out in ST.