Orioles close to acquiring Corbin Burnes (Update: Acquired for Joey Ortiz and DL Hall)

[DirtyBird]

30 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Adley Rutschman.

At catcher, yes - I agree

[Bemorewins]

5 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Am I missing something?  He’s open for both options.  You’re heavily invest in Holliday on the OD.

I agree with Burnes being here for this year meaning that this is a contend for a banner year. Also agree that Holliday should not be compared to Henderson as a prospect.

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

How much better do you think Holliday is than Urias/Mateo on Opening Day?

I think Holliday is probably something like a 3 WAR player right now. Urias/Mateo are like 2 WAR. So by leaving Holliday down in AAA, you’re giving up ~1 WAR over the course of the full season. 

If you think Holliday is a 3 WAR player but want the extra year, you probably shouldn’t send him down for just the minimum 3 weeks because there’s a decent chance he’ll win ROY and you lose the extra year anyway (in addition to maybe transparently pissing off Holliday/Boras with service time manipulation). Plus, if you call him up before Super 2, that extra year is a 4th trip through arb, which diminishes the value.

So if you need to leave Holliday down until midseason to make sure he’s out of ROY contention, and he’s about 1 WAR better than Urias, you’re costing ~0.5 WAR to do that, or about $5M surplus value if you want to put a $ value on it. 

What’s the discount rate on 0.5 WAR / $5M in 2024 vs. the extra year of control on Holliday in 7 years?

Just considering service time, if you put a premium on 2024 wins and you think Holliday is that much better than Urias then there’s still a good argument to have him go on Opening Day. It’s not a slam dunk either way, it’s arguable. And the ROY pick may slightly tip the scales towards having him up Opening Day. 

That said, if the Orioles don’t think he’s ready for legitimate, non-service time reasons, then he’s probably not that much better than Urias and it’s an easy call to send him down. But I think, and I think the Orioles think, that Holliday’s going to show up to Spring Training and demonstrate he’s ready right now. 

I thought Ortiz was better than Urias by enough of a margin, in addition to it being valuable to get Ortiz MLB playing time, that the equation was clear he should be starting Opening Day instead of Holliday. But now that Ortiz is gone I think it’s going to be Holliday. 

If you don’t extend him and start him on OD, I’m keeping him down until early to mid June…miss super 2 and he may not accumulate enough time to where he would win CY.  Going to be tough to beat out Carter anyway.

Im willing to win one less game to do that.

[sportsfan8703]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If you don’t extend him and start him on OD, I’m keeping him down until early to mid June…miss super 2 and he may not accumulate enough time to where he would win CY.  Going to be tough to beat out Carter anyway.

Im willing to win one less game to do that.

Yup. Thats the plan. So Urias at 3rd to start the season with Mateo at UTIL. My thought would then be is there a small opening for Norby to get some time on the dirt if he has a monster spring?  Long shot. I like Urias though. Pretty solid when he’s your #9 hitter. Hopefully, he has a bit of a bounceback year with the stick and the glove. 

[Moose Milligan]

I like how the Burnes thread has turned into another thread with hand wringing about the infield. 

Edited February 4 by Moose Milligan

[Can_of_corn]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If you don’t extend him and start him on OD, I’m keeping him down until early to mid June…miss super 2 and he may not accumulate enough time to where he would win CY.  Going to be tough to beat out Carter anyway.

Im willing to win one less game to do that.

I don't think he's got a real shot at the Cy Young.

Wouldn't it be funny if they did exactly what you suggested and finished a game out the Wild Card?

Almost as funny as when Adley won a full year of service time.

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think he's got a real shot at the Cy Young.

Wouldn't it be funny if they did exactly what you suggested and finished a game out the Wild Card?

Almost as funny as when Adley won a full year of service time.

If they finish one game out of the WC, they likely screwed up in a lot of other ways. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If they finish one game out of the WC, they likely screwed up in a lot of other ways. 

OK, you will be fine if they lose one a game but if that game actually means something it wasn't because of the game you were willing to lose.

Ironclad SG logic.

[CaptainRedbeard]

24 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If you don’t extend him and start him on OD, I’m keeping him down until early to mid June…miss super 2 and he may not accumulate enough time to where he would win CY.  Going to be tough to beat out Carter anyway.

Im willing to win one less game to do that.

1 win is a big difference. The difference between Burnes and just an above average mid-rotation starter. And in many scenarios where not everything goes the Orioles’ way in 2024, the difference between making the playoffs and missing it. Sure it may not ultimately matter if they win 90+ games, but we won’t know that in April. I don’t think the Orioles comfortably project for 95+ wins like the Braves or Dodgers where you can knock off 1 win and feel like it doesn’t have a significant impact on their playoff odds. Giving back a win in 2024 to send Holliday down for the extra year of control in 7 years is at odds with the Burnes trade prioritizing 2024 wins.

There’s also the distinct possibility that, if Holliday is the future HoF talent that so many think he’s going to be, it’s way more than 1 win. Gunnar and Adley were worth 5 WAR their rookie seasons. Holliday is IMO a better prospect than both of them were. If that’s what the Orioles think they have in Holliday now, they don’t send them down. 

And for what it’s worth, since the ROY pick was added that’s what most teams have done with their top prospects when they’re ready. I don’t think we’ve seen blatant service time manipulation in recent years.

[Moose Milligan]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

OK, you will be fine if they lose one a game but if that game actually means something it wasn't because of the game you were willing to lose.

Ironclad SG logic.

Wait, he’s gonna say your reading comprehension is pathetic. 

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

OK, you will be fine if they lose one a game but if that game actually means something it wasn't because of the game you were willing to lose.

Ironclad SG logic.

I’m just saying that one game isn’t the reason you miss out.  It was like the morons who were ready to blame McKenna last year for the dropped catch if we missed out by one game.

If they only win 85 or 86 games and miss out by one game, it will be for a myriad of reasons and, we don’t even know for sure that Holliday would have been worth that 1 win anyway. It’s just a hypothetical. 
 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Wait, he’s gonna say your reading comprehension is pathetic. 

No no…HE is pathetic. You had that all wrong. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No no…HE is pathetic. You had that all wrong. 

I've never had to assume a new name to rejoin an online community that kicked me out.

[now]

11 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

1 win is a big difference. The difference between Burnes and just an above average mid-rotation starter.

Shocking! but true...

2023 Burnes 3.5 WAR

2019 Cashner 2.5 WAR

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

1 win is a big difference. The difference between Burnes and just an above average mid-rotation starter. And in many scenarios where not everything goes the Orioles’ way in 2024, the difference between making the playoffs and missing it. Sure it may not ultimately matter if they win 90+ games, but we won’t know that in April. I don’t think the Orioles comfortably project for 95+ wins like the Braves or Dodgers where you can knock off 1 win and feel like it doesn’t have a significant impact on their playoff odds. Giving back a win in 2024 to send Holliday down for the extra year of control in 7 years is at odds with the Burnes trade prioritizing 2024 wins.

There’s also the distinct possibility that, if Holliday is the future HoF talent that so many think he’s going to be, it’s way more than 1 win. Gunnar and Adley were worth 5 WAR their rookie seasons. Holliday is IMO a better prospect than both of them were. If that’s what the Orioles think they have in Holliday now, they don’t send them down. 

And for what it’s worth, since the ROY pick was added that’s what most teams have done with their top prospects when they’re ready. I don’t think we’ve seen blatant service time manipulation in recent years.

Let’s rephrase that…One win COULD make a big difference. Saying it definitely will is not accurate.

What I would rather have is that 6 WAR 7th season.