Service time games, 2024

[CaptainRedbeard]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think they want to add him to the 40.

It depends. The 40 is not all that cramped right now. And there’s a lot of pitchers currently with one option left who by that point may be apparent they are not worth keeping in 2025 with no options (Zimmermann, Heasley, Vespi, Akin, Baker). If Basallo looks like he’ll for sure be on the Opening Day 2025 roster and he could be a benefit down the stretch and they have a 26-man spot for him (all significant “ifs”), I don’t think the 40-man spot will stop them from adding him this year. It’s possible he could also be the position player call up with the extra 2 roster spots on Sep 1.

I think mid-August is most likely to be a potential date for Mayo, but Mayo will be ready before then. There just may not be the roster space without a trade or injury, and if it’s via a trading deadline trade then they’d only need to wait an additional 2 weeks for the <45 days cutoff. 

[TommyPickles]

Great post. Glad to have this.

Personally, I do think they'll "play games" with the service time. At least a bit. I don't see Mayo or Holiday making it on the opening day roster. I could also see them having Kjerstad crack the opening day mix, but trying to hold off on Cowser if all is going well up in Charm City.

[dystopia]

I don’t think we should care about Super-2 status, but if we can get an extra year of service time for Holliday simply by leaving him down 2 weeks, we should do it. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

That date will be relevant for Basallo imo.  He could get the Gunnar treatment this year for sure.

I think it’s a pipe dream that Basallo will be ready this year.  

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Frobby said:

I think it’s a pipe dream that Basallo will be ready this year.  

Well you also didn’t think he would start the year in AA last year but he’s obviously going to do that.

Why would that be a pipe dream?  Once you are in AA, you are on track.  If he hits in AA like he did last year (or close to it), he won’t stay in AA for long.  So he’s in AAA by June or so if things go well.  So, he can’t show enough from June until the end of August to get brought up, when it will have zero effect on his service time?  
 

I know he’s a catcher and that can complicate things but he would be brought up for his bat and likely see a lot of DH time.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well you also didn’t think he would start the year in AA last year but he’s obviously going to do that.

Why would that be a pipe dream?  Once you are in AA, you are on track.  If he hits in AA like he did last year (or close to it), he won’t stay in AA for long.  So he’s in AAA by June or so if things go well.  So, he can’t show enough from June until the end of August to get brought up, when it will have zero effect on his service time?  
 

I know he’s a catcher and that can complicate things but he would be brought up for his bat and likely see a lot of DH time.

I mainly don’t think so because he’s a catcher, and because there’s a giant logjam in front of him (not at catcher, just in general).   

Edited February 5 by Frobby

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Frobby said:

I mainly don’t think so because he’s a catcher, and because there’s a giant logjam in front of him.  

A lot of things can happen between now and the end of August with that log jam.

But it’s definitely not a pipe dream. If he hits in AA and AAA like he did in A ball, he will be here. There is no way you leave that bat in the minors in a season where you are trying to win a WS. We saw the impact that Evan Carter had for the Rangers last year.  You don’t leave potential impact bats in the minors when you are contending late and can expand that roster.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

A lot of things can happen between now and the end of August with that log jam.

But it’s definitely not a pipe dream. If he hits in AA and AAA like he did in A ball, he will be here. There is no way you leave that bat in the minors in a season where you are trying to win a WS. We saw the impact that Evan Carter had for the Rangers last year.  You don’t leave potential impact bats in the minors when you are contending late and can expand that roster.

I think it’s extremely unlikely that Basallo is going to rush through full season ball in two years and be ready to be more of an impact bat than the many more experienced options that they have.  The only way I see him getting major league time is if he makes very good progress with both the bat and the glove, and either Rutschman or McCann goes down with an injury.  I’m not holding my breath for that to happen.  

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, dystopia said:

I don’t think we should care about Super-2 status, but if we can get an extra year of service time for Holliday simply by leaving him down 2 weeks, we should do it. 

And he can finish second in RoY voting like Adley.

[dystopia]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And he can finish second in RoY voting like Adley.

2 weeks is very unlikely to make or break his ROY case. 

[RarityFlaherty]

2 hours ago, waroriole said:

It would be pretty stupid to not play service time games with Holliday, unless there’s an injury or two in the IF. I think it would be hard to say Holliday should absolutely be starting ahead of Urias at this point. 

Ideally, I think you sign Holliday to a long term contract and not worry about playing service time games. Maybe forgoing the service time games buys us some goodwill and helps persuade him to sign longterm? Not sure.
 

Either way, I think most of the decisions this year will be made based on what makes the major league team better and will have less to do about service time. Whoever is looking the best in spring training is going to get a spot on opening day. There may be times when it makes sense to think about service time, but I would think it’d be more like delaying a promotion a couple weeks for a player who is close, as opposed to delaying a promotion for half a year when the player has shown they can help us win now. If Holliday looks good in spring training, I’d rather see us bring him up for opening day and hope for the draft pick, then send him back down to get the extra year. 
 

Mayo, on the other hand, I might think about manipulating service time to keep him around a little longer. At least as long as it isn’t hurting our competitiveness now. Holliday I would want to sign long term, but I don’t think I’d want be giving out a lot of money to any of our right handed bats. Lefties should thrive in Camden Yards now, but it’ll be a lot harder for right handed hitters to reach their maximum potential here. I don’t feel like investing a ton of money in any right handed hitter is going to make sense with the current dimensions of Camden Yards. We should maximize what we can get out of the righties while they’re cheap and then maybe think about trading them once they start to get closer to free agency. 

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, dystopia said:

2 weeks is very unlikely to make or break his ROY case. 

That’s not his point.  

[RarityFlaherty]

2 minutes ago, dystopia said:

2 weeks is very unlikely to make or break his ROY case. 

That’s kind of the problem. You either want him up on opening day so we are eligible for the draft pick, or you want to hold him down long enough that he has no shot at winning ROY.  If he’s in the running for ROY, holding him down for those 2 weeks would forfeit the draft pick and he’d lose the full year of eligibility anyway. 

[dystopia]

6 minutes ago, RarityFlaherty said:

That’s kind of the problem. You either want him up on opening day so we are eligible for the draft pick, or you want to hold him down long enough that he has no shot at winning ROY.  If he’s in the running for ROY, holding him down for those 2 weeks would forfeit the draft pick and he’d lose the full year of eligibility anyway. 

I’d value the pick over the extra year of service time. What chance do we give him of winning ROY? 25% 30%?

[RarityFlaherty]

4 minutes ago, dystopia said:

I’d value the pick over the extra year of service time. What chance do we give him of winning ROY? 25% 30%?

It’s probably lower than that with all of the competition next year. But if he looks good in spring training, I’d rather just put him on the opening day roster and at least give him the chance of earning us the draft pick, as opposed to leaving him down for two weeks to try to game service time and possibly have him win ROY so we end up losing the year anyway and not getting a draft pick. Either that, or you hold him down long enough that he has no chance of being in the running for ROY. But then you end up holding him down for half the year when he could have been helping us win games. Right now, I think the ideal scenario is to see Holliday on the opening day roster.