Is Austin Hays Just an OF Version of Jorge Mateo?

[Jagwar]

8 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

So your excuse for why Hays is only an above average player for three months of the season each year is because he's secretly playing through injuries in the second half EVERY season? I would advise against jumping up and down on that big thin limb that you're standing on. 

Big thin limb? You're the one who started a thread suggesting that Hays is "really anything more than a slightly more reliable OF version of Jorge Mateo".

[dystopia]

13 hours ago, forphase1 said:

Except he isn't.   He's a very streaky hitter who at times can look incredible and other times looks like what the OP suggested, an OF Mateo.  Yes,  he was an Allstar due to a very hot first half, and then disappeared for much of the 2nd half.  Looking at his numbers and results, he's average at best.   But certainly not a 'good' hitter.

His 114 OPS+ and 112 wRC+ last year would disagree with that assessment. 

[Sanity Check]

11 hours ago, wildcard said:

Best post in the thread because it deals with the facts:

Hays OPS

2022 1st half : 779     2nd half:  626

2023 1st half: 853*     2nd half   667

*All-Star

Hays plays so hard diving all over the place that he gets hurt.  When he is hurt he belongs on the IL.   But he wants to play through injuries.   Maybe in 2024 with Cowser available Hyde will actually put Hays on the IL when he is injured.

Cowser can also play RF and we will see in ST if he can play CF with competition from McKenna, Hilliard and Mateo as a backup to Mullins in CF.

If only our guys didn't play so hard 

As I recall, he made a lot of those plays when he was trying too hard.  Where do we draw the line between playing hard and getting hurt?  I don't think any of his plays were irresponsible in terms of his decision to go and get the ball.  As a pitcher, I applaud that kind of effort.      .......This also reminds me of the time that someone on here complained about Mullins getting hurt running out a ground ball in inning of a game we were losing, as if the fact that we were losing dictated he shouldn't be hustling in that situation because we were going to lose anyway.

I scratch my head a lot when I read some of the comments on here, and my head doesn't even itch.

[Sanity Check]

8 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Like you and @wildbillhiccup aren't?

I have watched nearly every game in 2023. Hays was the difference between winning and losing in a number of those games. Especially with his glove.  And we have a bunch of fly ball pitchers (Hello Tyler Wells) so good outfielders are absolutely essential.

 

Yeah, he's pretty reckless.  We don't need our guys playing that hard. 

100% kidding, and thank you for posting these.  He's a gamer, and yes, he might get hurt saving us some runs defensively....it comes with the territory.

[wildbillhiccup]

1 hour ago, dystopia said:

His 114 OPS+ and 112 wRC+ last year would disagree with that assessment. 

Hays' career OPS+ is 107 which puts him slightly above the league average.

[dystopia]

Just now, wildbillhiccup said:

Hays' career OPS+ is 107 which puts him slightly above the league average.

In other words, good. 

[wildbillhiccup]

1 hour ago, Jagwar said:

Big thin limb? You're the one who started a thread suggesting that Hays is "really anything more than a slightly more reliable OF version of Jorge Mateo".

The title was more of an attention getter. The primary purpose of the thread was to start a discussion about why (I think) it makes sense to give Cowser a longer look and play him over Hays. 

To your thin limb point, unless the other poster is Austin Hay's primary care physician then trying to use him playing through undisclosed injuries as an excuse for his struggles throughout his entire career seems a bit ridiculous to me. 

[wildcard]

28 minutes ago, Sanity Check said:

If only our guys didn't play so hard 

As I recall, he made a lot of those plays when he was trying too hard.  Where do we draw the line between playing hard and getting hurt?  I don't think any of his plays were irresponsible in terms of his decision to go and get the ball.  As a pitcher, I applaud that kind of effort.      .......This also reminds me of the time that someone on here complained about Mullins getting hurt running out a ground ball in inning of a game we were losing, as if the fact that we were losing dictated he shouldn't be hustling in that situation because we were going to lose anyway.

I scratch my head a lot when I read some of the comments on here, and my head doesn't even itch.

Hays playing like his hair is on fire has been his trademark.    And I certainly don't have a problem with it.   Sometimes I think he could have made the catch without diving but that is not his style.

What I think is a problem is him playing when he is hurt.   He lessens his range and make him change his swing which causes slumps.   It may have happened in the past because his backup was not very good.    But I am hoping with Cowser as the 4th OF when Hays get hurt he sits or is put on the IL.    I think it will be better for the team.

[wildbillhiccup]

9 minutes ago, dystopia said:

In other words, good. 

Kevin Kiermaier had a 104 OPS+ last season.  The Blue Jays, who don't have a high end OF propsect waiting in the wings like we do only gave him 370 ABs last season. Most of the projection sites are estimating that Austin Hays will get 500+ ABs this season. Do you think the Blue Jays would give Kiermaier 500+ ABs if the situations were reversed? 

[Sports Guy]

20 minutes ago, dystopia said:

In other words, good. 

…but replaceable.  

[dystopia]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

…but replaceable.  

Don’t disagree. 

[dystopia]

11 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Kevin Kiermaier had a 104 OPS+ last season.  The Blue Jays, who don't have a high end OF propsect waiting in the wings like we do only gave him 370 ABs last season. Most of the projection sites are estimating that Austin Hays will get 500+ ABs this season. Do you think the Blue Jays would give Kiermaier 500+ ABs if the situations were reversed? 

I was just challenging forphase’s absurd post saying Hays wasn’t a good hitter, that’s all. 

Considering the Jays DON’T have a high end prospect waiting, I do find it surprising he didn’t get more ABs given his elite defense, but I don’t know his situation. Was he injured part of the year? I honestly can’t remember. 

[sportsfan8703]

Hays was a legit all star. Then got bumped to all start start. Finished top 3 in LF GG. Leads off against LH SP. 

Enjoy this year with Hays. Now next year, is when we can talk about moving because of FA. 

[forphase1]

28 minutes ago, dystopia said:

I was just challenging forphase’s absurd post saying Hays wasn’t a good hitter, that’s all. 

Considering the Jays DON’T have a high end prospect waiting, I do find it surprising he didn’t get more ABs given his elite defense, but I don’t know his situation. Was he injured part of the year? I honestly can’t remember. 

Nothing absurd with saying someone who is slightly above average isn't good.   Though I suppose it's where someone draws a line.  If the average ops is .734, do you take it as simple as anyone at .735 or more is good,  and anyone .733 or below is bad?  Hey, if so knock yourself out!  For me being slightly above average doesn't equate to 'good', but just that... close to average.  We can argue the word choices all we want,  but Hays is not so far above league average to pretend that not considering him a good hitter is absurd. 

[dystopia]

34 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Nothing absurd with saying someone who is slightly above average isn't good.   Though I suppose it's where someone draws a line.  If the average ops is .734, do you take it as simple as anyone at .735 or more is good,  and anyone .733 or below is bad?  Hey, if so knock yourself out!  For me being slightly above average doesn't equate to 'good', but just that... close to average.  We can argue the word choices all we want,  but Hays is not so far above league average to pretend that not considering him a good hitter is absurd. 

A 114 OPS+ is good by any reasonable definition of the word.