How’s the East look now?

[Just Regular]

The MLB-wide run differential rankings by Fangraphs guesses of the first nine 2024 regular season opponents before the end of April showdown with the elite Yankees.

(24) LAA

(26) KC

(25) PIT

(14) BOS

(19) MIL

(10) MIN

(26) KC

(24) LAA

(27) OAK

Burnes, Bradish and Grayson on schedule would throw 17 of the 27 starts the first 5.4 rotation turns, not that I don't expect Means and Kremer to be competitive with those lineups as well.      We will get all our '24 Royals in the early days off their big offseason...there will be an Adam Frazier big spot somewhere in those first 20 games.

[Sports Guy]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2024-pre-spring-training-zips-projected-standings-american-league/

[Frobby]

ZiPS has the Orioles winning the AL East!  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2024-pre-spring-training-zips-projected-standings-american-league/

For clarity, the Fangraphs projected standings are based on a 50/50 blend of ZiPS and Steamer.  And since the Fangraphs projections have us finishing well below the Yankees, that shows that Steamer is very chilly on the Orioles, even though ZiPS is bullish.  
 

[Sports Guy]

Is there an echo in here?  

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Is there an echo in here?  

Hah.  I’m multitasking, Hanging Out while listening to the Supreme Court argument on the insurrection clause of the Constitutuon, so I was a little slow on the draw.  

[Spy Fox]

Szymborski's explanation of why ZiPS might like the O's more—because it places more value on organizational depth— matches some of the discussion in this thread about the O's vs Yankees roster construction.

[Spy Fox]

16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Hah.  I’m multitasking, Hanging Out while listening to the Supreme Court argument on the insurrection clause of the Constitutuon, so I was a little slow on the draw.  

Yeah SG, how are you expanding your understanding of constitutional law this morning?

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Spy Fox said:

Yeah SG, how are you expanding your understanding of constitutional law this morning?

By doing the opposite of what the politicians do.

[dystopia]

28 minutes ago, Frobby said:

ZiPS has the Orioles winning the AL East!  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2024-pre-spring-training-zips-projected-standings-american-league/

For clarity, the Fangraphs projected standings are based on a 50/50 blend of ZiPS and Steamer.  And since the Fangraphs projections have us finishing well below the Yankees, that shows that Steamer is very chilly on the Orioles, even though ZiPS is bullish.  
 

ZiPS is more grounded in reality than PECOTA, but I’m definitely still taking the over on 90 wins. Seems they got the O’s in 1st more because they’re not sold on the MFY and BJs than believing the O’s to be some kind of juggernaut. 
 

I’m sure Steamer will have us with the worst bullpen in history, a below average rotation, a below average lineup, and a final record of -15 wins and 177 losses. 

[Just Regular]

The basic game of 2024, or whatever year it occurs, is if/when Elias' teams can overtake Judge and Cole's greatness.

They are 33/34 this year.

Its thrilling Burnes-Bradish-Grayson offer a fighting chance to straight outplay that guy even if nothing tweaks in his massive physique, and that Gunnar-Adley the same smashing Gerrit Cole pitches.     Forget salary, is it 2026 or 2030 when Gunnar Henderson or Coby Mayo or Samuel Basallo beat Judge at OPS+?     Sammy won't be as old as Judge is now until the 2036 season.

Judge and Cole and Gunnar and Adley and Bryce all have the same number of rings, fewer than Juan Soto, Trey Mancini and Brian Matusz.

I think Andrew Friedman has a seat warm for Juan Soto, but it wouldn't hurt if the '24 Orioles took firmer hold of the most direct path far into October from this division.

[Frobby]

I love this line from Szymborski today:

“The goal of ZiPS is to be less awful than any other way of predicting the future.”

[Just Regular]

Reading the whole AL article, I noticed out in the AL West all its good teams maxed out in the high 80's, so ZiPS' guess is league-best as well as division-best.

I do believe as the Grayson-Kjerstad-Cowser-Mayo-Holliday-Basallo group establishes its value to the projections before Adley goes that a high point will occur some time this decade when even Steamer and PECOTA grudgingly grant Giancarlo Stanton can be outplayed.

 

[dystopia]

I’d also hear the justification for projecting Burnes to have the highest ERA of his career other than “O’s bad hurr durr” considering the following:

-Contract year

-Miller Park being hitter friendly, now moving to Walltimore

-Adley’s pitch framing abilities

I expect him to have a sub-3 ERA next year, but would hardly be disappointed with anything below 3.50. 
 

 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, dystopia said:

I’d also hear the justification for projecting Burnes to have the highest ERA of his career other than “O’s bad hurr durr” considering the following:

-Contract year

-Miller Park being hitter friendly, now moving to Walltimore

-Adley’s pitch framing abilities

I expect him to have a sub-3 ERA next year, but would hardly be disappointed with anything below 3.50. 
 

 

What projections are you referring to?   Interestingly, ZiPS projected him at 3.32 in Milwaukee, now says 3.46 on his player page.  I guess that reflects that the competition in the AL East is better than in the NL Central, and that is a stronger factor than the Camden Yards dimensions, etc.   Anyway, not enough of a change to sweat it.  

[dystopia]

23 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What projections are you referring to?   Interestingly, ZiPS projected him at 3.32 in Milwaukee, now says 3.46 on his player page.  I guess that reflects that the competition in the AL East is better than in the NL Central, and that is a stronger factor than the Camden Yards dimensions, etc.   Anyway, not enough of a change to sweat it.  

I believe it was PECOTA.