Hays Interested in Extension

[OriolesMagic83]

I hope Hays has a long career after leaving the O's, but there's a good chance 2023 was a career year.

[Orioles West]

In this era of baseball, I really like that Hayes wants to stay in Baltimore. If it takes longer to develop some of the younger OF this year or injuries and setbacks, maybe he can pull off a reasonable extension.

[Roll Tide]

6 hours ago, Bird Lady said:

 

 

Do you mean Hays or Hayes

 

 

[Roll Tide]

5 hours ago, brooooksy said:

I would like to see him at like 3/21 I think, can’t see any more barring a sudden break out 

 

but if you are outright dismissing this because of prospects, you need to be reminded that hays was a more highly rated prospect than Kjerstad is and around what cowser is. It’s a decent outcome and there’s no guarantee those guys will reach his level

Not me ….  He’s been a MLB player for 3 years. He’s a low OBP player and his power numbers for a COF are just ok.

More highly rated than Kjerstad? He was a 3rd rounder. 

[Billy F-Face3]

6 hours ago, brooooksy said:

Reminder that signing a fair deal with Austin Hays does not preclude trading him if Colton Cowser takes his job.

signing guys to trade would’ve been preferable to the Galvis/Franco/Odor type signings during the tank, and Angelos is no longer the owner. So we’ll see if Rosenstein is willing to shoulder the risk for potentially get better prospects.
 

I like this idea. My natural instinct is to want to give Hays his extension because he seems very loyal to the Orioles. The option to trade if necessary can always be a fallback plan, but hopefully the Orioles would be so happy with his performance that they would not want to let him go. They can also trade a nice shiny prospect that is highly ranked yet with no guarantee of reaching the success that Hays has so far had.

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

 Or do we count on Beavers to pick up the slack?

I forgot to look that far down the Organization. I like the Beavers and Fabian prospects. I especially feel good about Fabian's future. Another one that goes under the radar for alot of people is Billy Cook. I think Cook is significantly under rated, and he's versatile with all the positions he can play well at.

[ShoelesJoe]

10 hours ago, brooooksy said:

I would like to see him at like 3/21 I think, can’t see any more barring a sudden break out 

 

but if you are outright dismissing this because of prospects, you need to be reminded that hays was a more highly rated prospect than Kjerstad is and around what cowser is. It’s a decent outcome and there’s no guarantee those guys will reach his level

23 year old Hays at Norfolk in 2019: .254 / .304 / .454

24 year old Kjerstad at Norfolk in 2023: .298 / .371 / .498

Yes, Hays got as high as #23 on the MLB top 100 list while Kjerstad only made it up to #32. But the difference between those two numbers is nothing. The year Hays was #23 Victor Robles was #6 on the top 100 prospect list. The same Victor Robles who 500 games into his career has a .672 OPS. I love Hays' defense and his fire, but he doesn't get on base enough. If they want to keep him around as a platoon partner with Cowser then I'm okay with that, but going forward I doubt he'll be as valuable as either Cowser or Kjerstad. 

 

 

[DirtyBird]

7 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I hope Hays has a long career after leaving the O's, but there's a good chance 2023 was a career year.

There is also a decent chance that he gets more games off this season, is able to play fresher & in better matchups and puts up very good numbers

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Not me ….  He’s been a MLB player for 3 years. He’s a low OBP player and his power numbers for a COF are just ok.

More highly rated than Kjerstad? He was a 3rd rounder. 

He obviously was not as highly rated at draft time.  But he kicked ass the following year, and was rated #21 by BA, #23 by MLB.com, which is higher than Kjerstad has ever been rated by any of the pundits.  He was a finalist for minor league player of the year, and was the first player in the 2016 draft to reach the major leagues.

All this just illustrates that there’s no guarantee that either Kjerstad or Cowser turns out to be better than Hays.  Some highly rated prospects turn into stars, some become solid major leaguers (that’s where I’d put Hays), some become journeymen, some barely get a cup of coffee, and some never do.  I’m not saying this to puff up Hays, just to temper expectations on the young guys.  Obviously, I’m hoping that Cowser is better than Hays and Kjerstad is better than Santander and in two years we’ve upgraded both corner spots.  But it may not turn out that way, especially in the short run.  

[sportsfan8703]

I don’t see us investing resources in RH bats. The wall is there. Out RH hitters will be bench/role players going forward. 

Before the ownership change I would’ve said 0% chance on an extension. Post change, I’ll say 20%. 

I think we just let him play out his deal like Santa. I think Mullins will be the only one where the return will justify a trade. 

Meaning for next year… Hays 2025 value > what he would bring back in a trade. Just like Santa this year. 

[Moose Milligan]

5 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

I like this idea. My natural instinct is to want to give Hays his extension because he seems very loyal to the Orioles. The option to trade if necessary can always be a fallback plan, but hopefully the Orioles would be so happy with his performance that they would not want to let him go. They can also trade a nice shiny prospect that is highly ranked yet with no guarantee of reaching the success that Hays has so far had.

This is the rosiest thing I've read on here all week.

Let's be clear here, you'd want to give Hays an extension because he seems loyal to the Orioles, despite having potentially better options waiting in the wings?  Let's not pretend that Hays' production isn't replacable, this isn't prime Mike Trout we're talking about here.

He wouldn't net much in a trade right now, he'd probably net less if his performance tanks if there was anyone interested in him at all.  

[Greg Pappas]

With him under contract through the end of 2025, I see no current reason to extend him.  We'll be better served waiting to see how things develop with Cowser, Kjerstad and others.

[big_sparxx]

11 hours ago, Frobby said:

I hope at least one will prove worthy.  

does arbitration make it less likely that the player will extend?

I see most think it's a foregone conclusion. I'm not so sure. We better hope that these young guns live up to the hype. Hays would be the kind of player to come back to haunt us in the future.

[wildbillhiccup]

It seems like a lot of folks in this thread are thinking with their hearts and not their heads. Sure Hays has been a solid player for the last few years, but let's dial back the nostalgia a bit. He's not even in the same stratosphere as players like Markaksis and A.Jones in terms of performance and Orioles' folklore and we let both of those players walk. And "what if our OF prospects fail?" isn't a good enough reason. The chances of at least one of them not being able to at least match Hays production (not a high bar) seem pretty low. And even if they all flame out we can always dip into the FA market and sign a better OF than Hays in 2026. For context, Kyle Tucker and Luis Robert will both be FAs in 2026. 

[jabba72]

9 hours ago, Orioles West said:

In this era of baseball, I really like that Hayes wants to stay in Baltimore. If it takes longer to develop some of the younger OF this year or injuries and setbacks, maybe he can pull off a reasonable extension.

If he was putting up OPS in the .850 range my guess is he'd be wanting to test free agency. He'll get an offer from someone after 2025 unless his performance falls off a cliff., its not like he has no options. I just dont think Baltimore is the right place for Hays in 26.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, wildbillhiccup said:

It seems like a lot of folks in this thread are thinking with their hearts and not their heads. Sure Hays has been a solid player for the last few years, but let's dial back the nostalgia a bit. He's not even in the same stratosphere as players like Markaksis and A.Jones in terms of performance and Orioles' folklore and we let both of those players walk. And "what if our OF prospects fail?" isn't a good enough reason. The chances of at least one of them not being able to at least match Hays production (not a high bar) seem pretty low. And even if they all flame out we can always dip into the FA market and sign a better OF than Hays in 2026. For context, Kyle Tucker and Luis Robert will both be FAs in 2026. 

First of all, we did extend both Markakis and Jones, and let them walk only when they were older.   I agree Hays isn’t in the same league as those players.   

It’s kind of a waste of time to argue about whether we might want to extend Hays at some future date.  It seems everyone agrees we shouldn’t do it now.  We’ll see what the future brings.  I’d say the chances it would make sense are fairly remote, but we’ll see.