Jackson Holliday spring training watch

[btdart20]

36 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Entire thread here..which starts off with a graph showing how bad the arm currently is for Holliday:

 

Swanson and Lindor are in the Holliday wing of the discussion.  Cooper's right to say that there's more than arm strength to playing SS.  He's also right to point out a blemish in the resume.  

Gunnar's a beast.

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, interloper said:

Well, certainly don't love that. I think there's almost no way he doesn't improve that as he gets into his early 20s. Is the rest of his defense enough to make up for it? I guess we'll see. But it makes sense for him to be a 2B right now on this particular team. 

Nice to see Gunnar high on this list. 

As Cooper said, he does make up for the arm by playing the position differently than Gunnar does. 
 

But yes, for 2024, playing mostly at second makes sense. We will see how he progresses, if there are injuries, etc…but the plan to do that makes sense. But there is still a when there, in terms of when do they bring him Up and what does he look like at that point.

As I said before, I think this is a conversation that is really about 2025 and beyond. 

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Swanson and Lindor are in the Holliday wing of the discussion.  Cooper's right to say that there's more than arm strength to playing SS.  He's also right to point out a blemish in the resume.  

Gunnar's a beast.

I would look for him to get into that JP Crawford to Brandon Crawford area. That makes him around league average. 

[Frobby]

There are some pretty good defensive shortstops near the bottom of that list.  I think I’ve seen stats somewhere on transfer time, which is also a very important element of beating the runner to 1B.  Some guys have strong arms but take a long time to transfer the ball and load up for the throw.  

[Say O!]

Per statcast, Dansby and Lindor both elite in range as measured by OAA at 100th and 91st percentile respectively.  Also note that Dansby maxes at 88mph so he can unleash if needed.

[Sports Guy]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

There are some pretty good defensive shortstops near the bottom of that list.  I think I’ve seen stats somewhere on transfer time, which is also a very important element of beating the runner to 1B.  Some guys have strong arms but take a long time to transfer the ball and load up for the throw.  

Yea, that list proves that elite arm strength isn’t necessary to be good but it’s obviously nice to have that tool in the shed.

 

[Aristotelian]

Video from Eric Birdland of Jackson working out at 2B. More evidence that's where he's headed, at least short term? https://x.com/Eric_Birdland/status/1761152788434719092?s=20

[Just Regular]

I browsed qualified Bats seasons by Age last 10 years and should Holliday in 2024 (and Basallo in 2025) earn that, they would join Soto/Acuna/Vlad as the only 20 year olds to do that.     Only Soto also did so at age 19.

For 2014-2023, fWAR sees Gunnar's rookie year as the 13th best age-22 season* by a Bat, and Adley's initial two years have been the 11th best age-24 season and 19th best age-25 season.

Cedric Mullins' career year now sits as the 13th best age-26 season, and Adley hopefully will bump him down one.

*had Gunnar been born a few days later, it would have bucketed in as the 3rd best age-21 season, but he just missed the cutoff.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Video from Eric Birdland of Jackson working out at 2B. More evidence that's where he's headed, at least short term? https://x.com/Eric_Birdland/status/1761152788434719092?s=20

Not really.  He was working out at SS the day before, per Eric’s interview with Stan the Fan.  He’s getting reps at both, but Elias & Hyde have made it pretty clear that Gunnar will start at SS most days.  

[emmett16]

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C3n8WYCxlKS/?igsh=MTh5aDY3NDQ2eWpxMA==
 

[Frobby]

Starting at 2B today, batting 7th.  

[Tony-OH]

On 2/21/2024 at 6:24 PM, Sports Guy said:

Hardy as well.

Hardy actually had a plus arm, it's just he only used it when he needed to. 

[Tony-OH]

On 2/22/2024 at 12:29 PM, Sports Guy said:

JJ Cooper has a thread going on about Holliday defense.

 

some highlights:

 

 

Entire thread here..which starts off with a graph showing how bad the arm currently is for Holliday:

 

That chart is really interesting, thanks for sharing. Here's the thing to remember about arm strength at SS, while it's important, it's not the be all, end all if your can throw accurately and transfer quickly. Take Dansby Swanson from the Braves, he has 19th percentile throwing but was worth 20 OAA and 15 fielding runs. 

So even if Holliday's arm does not improve and judging by a few videos I've seen this spring it does not appear it's going to be a strength for him, that does not necessarily mean he can't become a good major league shortstop.

Now is he better than Gunnar Henderson right now? No, I don't think so and besides Law, I don't think any other evaluator would say so. Will he be better in a few years if Gunnar's range, which is average now, becomes below average due to him getting bigger and older? Perhaps.

I think over the next few years at least, Gunnar is going to be at SS and Holliday at 2B. But it would not surprise me in 3-4 years if Gunnar doesn't move over to 3B and depending on who is ready (remember the Orioles have some highly thought of International SSs developing) Holliday could move to SS or he may just stay at 2B because he's comfortable there by then and because he'll probably end up a plus defender at 2B. 

[Frobby]

Bordick had the weakest arm of just about any Orioles SS that I can remember, but he was lighting quick getting rid of the ball and deadly accurate.  I do hope to see some of Holliday at SS this spring to get a read on him.  However, I’m completely comfortable with Gunnar being the regular SS, based on his performance last year.  

[emmett16]

32 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Hardy actually had a plus arm, it's just he only used it when he needed to. 

Most accurate arm I’ve ever seen.