Now, I want you to remember....

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Malike said:

Yeah, even the projection systems have him going from -10.5 dWAR to -1.8 at the low end to 2.1 at the high end. He was worth 4.4 in 2022. Not our problem this year but I'm sure someone will be watching it lol.

Also wouldn't expect 13 HR.

[Too Tall]

23 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

It's worse than that-- he signed with the Royals, so he has twice as many opportunities. 

You are right! Thanks a lot. You just made an old man's attemp at peaceful sleep much harder!!!! 

[Malike]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Also wouldn't expect 13 HR.

Reasonable not to, I agree.

[Sports Guy]

For me, there are 2 aspects of sports that I feel get completely overlooked.

1) Intelligence. Intelligence meaning doing things in a smart way and not doing things to best yourselves. Honestly, watching the Os last year, I felt that this was one of their “quiet strengths”. They were aggressive but smart.

2) Availability. The Os have been remarkably healthy the last 2 years and it’s been a big reason that they have exceeded expectations. That is being tested already.  So, when Moose talks about things going wrong, he’s absolutely right. It’s going to happen and we have seen a team like Tampa overcome this a lot the last few years but then they get to the playoffs and they just don’t have enough in the tank to be a real threat. So many guys out and so much talent out and you can’t make up for it against the best.

Losing Bradish may not cost them the ability to win enough games to get into the playoffs but it certainly may cost them in the playoffs.

But let’s see what happens and how Elias supplements this roster.

Edited February 16 by Sports Guy

[NashLumber]

Fair enough, @Moose Milligan. The sky is not falling, but what if we see white puffy things moving and covering up the sun? 

[Philip]

1 hour ago, Malike said:

Where are you getting the 12-win number from?

Oh that was just a random number, I didn’t look up what the expected wins or the Pythagorean wins were.

I do know that the Yankees were expected to win the division and I think they were predicted for over 90 wins, so suggesting that injuries cost them 12 or so wins is not unreasonable.

[SteveA]

5 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

In 2023 the Orioles won 101 games.  Also, in no particular order:

• Givens was an unmitigated disaster
• Gunnar Henderson's excruciatingly slow start
• No Tate
• Keegan Akin disaster
• Grayson Rodriguez being a disaster and having to be sent down in the first half
• Mullins injuries
• Mountcastle's vertigo
• Tyler Wells shutdown
• ADAM FRAZIER
• McKenna's dropped flyball in Boston
• Jack Flaherty being our deadline pickup and being completely awful
• Bautista going down
• Fuji's roller coasters
• Cole Irvin's rough start
• Jorge Mateo being an automatic out for 3 months
• BRYAN BAKER

I'm probably forgetting some others.

I always hear people say "If everything goes right this team can win ______ games."  And nothing ever goes 100% completely right.  I'm also well aware that some of the list above was offset by out-of-nowhere performances by Danny Coulombe, Ryan O'Hearn and Yennier Cano.  

All of this is to say that it sucks that Bradish has a UCL and Gunnar's got an oblique issue on Day 1 of Spring Training but the sky isn't falling.  

Buck the F up.  It's 2024 and we're going Yankees hunting for another division title in 2024.

And one of our divisional rivals got off to [maybe] the best start of any team in the last 38 years and had an "insurmountable" lead early in the season.

[DrungoHazewood]

6 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

In 2023 the Orioles won 101 games.  Also, in no particular order:

• Givens was an unmitigated disaster
• Gunnar Henderson's excruciatingly slow start
• No Tate
• Keegan Akin disaster
• Grayson Rodriguez being a disaster and having to be sent down in the first half
• Mullins injuries
• Mountcastle's vertigo
• Tyler Wells shutdown
• ADAM FRAZIER
• McKenna's dropped flyball in Boston
• Jack Flaherty being our deadline pickup and being completely awful
• Bautista going down
• Fuji's roller coasters
• Cole Irvin's rough start
• Jorge Mateo being an automatic out for 3 months
• BRYAN BAKER

I'm probably forgetting some others.

I always hear people say "If everything goes right this team can win ______ games."  And nothing ever goes 100% completely right.  I'm also well aware that some of the list above was offset by out-of-nowhere performances by Danny Coulombe, Ryan O'Hearn and Yennier Cano.  

All of this is to say that it sucks that Bradish has a UCL and Gunnar's got an oblique issue on Day 1 of Spring Training but the sky isn't falling.  

Buck the F up.  It's 2024 and we're going Yankees hunting for another division title in 2024.

Well said. The 2014 Orioles had like 14 major things go off the rails and won the division by 12 games.

Everything doesn't have to go right for the O's to be a playoff team this year. To be a contender all that has to happen is everything can't go wrong. And it never all goes wrong.

[DrungoHazewood]

15 minutes ago, SteveA said:

And one of our divisional rivals got off to [maybe] the best start of any team in the last 38 years and had an "insurmountable" lead early in the season.

July 19th. That's how long it took the Orioles to overcome the Rays starting an '84-Tigers-like 27-6.

[Just Regular]

4 hours ago, Too Tall said:

My reocurring nightmare  -  when we play the Pirates, Frazier has the winning hit in all the games and OH explodes. Can we just let Adam Frazier rest in peace?

The baseball gods are giving him a moment somewhere in those 6 Royals games early, which we will generally deserve.

He's an accomplished professional arguably with a set of skills that don't wither at the highest level of competition like some other ballplayers who can put up some stats.

Grayson - be practicing your visualization skills to remain calm when he plops in a single and Bobby Witt runs faster than Enrique Bradfield.

[Just Regular]

2 hours ago, Malike said:

His fWAR (Westburg) was completely carried by his defense. Oddly enough, Frazier has always been a decent defender until the wheels fell off him last season. 

It gets late early with middle infielders and defense.     I think Sigbot knew what it was getting as far as his fading defensive capabilities.

[spleen1015]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

Adam Frazier, divisive even in the afterlife!   I was happy to play him in the Pirates’ all-star square in Immaculate Grid yesterday, a correct annswer given by only 0.9% of those who voted correctly.   And his two-out game-tying double in the 9th inning of the Sept. 17 Tampa game was probably the most thrilling moment of the 2023 season.  So, I’ll have only fond memories of The Pariah.

But what about O'Hearns bunt in the 11th?

[Moose Milligan]

8 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

So, when Moose talks about things going wrong, he’s absolutely right. 

 

 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

8 hours ago, NashLumber said:

Fair enough, @Moose Milligan. The sky is not falling, but what if we see white puffy things moving and covering up the sun? 

But is it time to panic yet?

[Tbone83]

I didn't and don't understand the Frazier hate here. Coming into last year I just saw him as a guy to hold things down till the younger guys came up, and to be decent. Was he an all star or a O'Hearn-like surprise? No, but I think he was fine, and had several huge clutch hits as well. Did he ever make me want to throw my remote through the TV like Baker? No. Was he Mateo-trying-to-bunt bad? Nah. If I have to look for negatives in an overwhelmingly positive season, I don't think AF would make my top 50.