Is the rotation just back to square 1 with Burnes replacing Bradish's WAR?

[Malike]

3 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

2023 -> 2024

Bautista -> Kimbrel

Bradish -> Burnes

Wells and Irvin -> Wells and Irvin

Burnes was worth 3.4 fWAR in 2023 and Bradish 3.8. The highest projections this year have Bradish at 2.6 fWAR and the lowest any have for Burnes is 3.2 fWAR. They were basically a wash last year.

[wildbillhiccup]

I think Burnes was more likely to have a better seaon than Bradish (I expected some regression), but when you take both the Bradish and Means injuries into consideration I think we probably broke even with our starting rotation. And I think we regressed with our bullpen when you factor in the loss of Hall and the fact that Kimbrel < Bautista. 

[Aristotelian]

I'd say basically yes. I never thought we could simply count on Bradish for 4.5 WAR every year. If I had to guess, I would expect Burnes to slightly outperform Bradish just due to his overall track record. But basically yes, if Burnes replaces Bradish's production from last year, that is a fair expectation or even a win. 

[btdart20]

Rotation = net positive.  But yes, square one with a dash of TBD...

Bullpen = net negative.  Bautista/Hall > Kimbrel/last arm.

[jamalshw]

At a high level: yes, if Bradish is out the whole year. If he comes back in May, then obviously, no. 

That said, injuries aside, I expected a regression for Bradish in 2024. While I want to believe 2023 was just the start of something great for Bradish, injury aside, I still expected more of a mid-3 ERA from him in 2024. Burnes, on the other hand, has a bit more track record, and had his worst stretch since becoming a full-time big league starter in the first half last year before righting the ship down the stretch so I expected AT LEAST the same as he did in 2023 and likely him to be a tick better in 2024. 

Given the option of Bradish OR Burnes for 2024, I would take Burnes. Obviously, the expectation was both which is what made the Burnes addition so exciting (alongside Grayson as well). 

Hopefully, that is still the case come May. If the Orioles truly believe he's back after 4-6 weeks of the regular season, I would like them to go out and add someone like Lorenzen (as he could go to the pen after--or stay in the rotation if other injuries occur) or at least a good RP so Wells can stay in the rotation without as big a hit to the pen. If the Orioles are just HOPING he's back in May and realistically think he could be out much longer (including for the year), then I would hope they'd go out and add someone better via trade or free agency. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

59 minutes ago, MDS29 said:

The short answer is yes. I'd rather not give up the farm for Luzardo. Ryu is intriguing, Bauer is worth a flier, makes me re-think whether we should have kept Gibson.

My preference is to sign a free agent given there are some good choices left on the market. The price to acquire Luzardo or Cease seems rather steep and it would give Elias less ammunition for any in-season trades. 

[tntoriole]

We need another bold nonAngelos move.. Sign Snell or Montgomery, Mr Rubinstein and we will love you!!! 

[Three Run Homer]

Yes, we are back to square 1.   We lost an adequate innings eater in Gibson, and we have not replaced him.  Kremer is still our number 3 starter.  As of now, both Irvin and Wells will start the season in the rotation.  

Signing Lorenzen (greatly prefer him to Ryu or Clevinger) would help at the back end--it would keep Irvin in long relief at least.  This is the minimum that the team needs to do. 

But we went into the offseason thinking we needed another frontline starter who can give you lots of innings.  Lorenzen isn't that, and neither is Kremer.  Maybe Means or Bradish can be that later in the season, but that depends on their health. 

Bottom line:  I still think the Orioles need to be looking at high-end options in the trade and FA market.  

 

[interloper]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not at all excited about adding Kimbrel, I think he's mostly a name at this point.

Agree, but my point was just: we filled the apparent roster holes (Bautista, Gibson) pretty well, one being a significant upgrade in Burnes, and are still behind the 8-ball. It's tough to swallow. And it's a tough look for Elias to come to spring training without having done more knowing what he has known for months. Not saying he's not trying or that he's not doing his best in a slow market and in the midst of a franchise sale, just that it sucks. 

For my money, I'd rather him have come into that ST interview and said, "Yes, it's a concern and we're trying like hell to plug these holes. I can't guarantee anything will get done, but the fact is we're behind where we hoped to be due to injuries. I like our team and our depth, but we have work to do to find some more pitching." I just can't get behind this stuff about expecting Bradish to come back, it comes off a little lackadaisical in a World Series or bust year. 

Edited February 16 by interloper

[oriolediehard]

Is it realistic to hope that one of or all 3 of McDermott, Popvich and Seth Johnson could step up this year?

 

[Aristotelian]

19 hours ago, interloper said:

Agree, but my point was just: we filled the apparent roster holes (Bautista, Gibson) pretty well, one being a significant upgrade in Burnes, and are still behind the 8-ball. It's tough to swallow. And it's a tough look for Elias to come to spring training without having done more knowing what he has known for months. Not saying he's not trying or that he's not doing his best in a slow market and in the midst of a franchise sale, just that it sucks. 

Maybe what he has known is that Bradish's prognosis really isn't too bad. Or he is looking at another signing or a trade. I don't think Elias is a fool and I don't think his plan is to impress his new boss by coming to spring training with a worse team than last year. 

By the way, all we know about the Bradish injury is it occurred in January. That seems like a long time ago but if it was toward the end of the month it could have occurred just before the Burnes trade. Best guess is Elias has known for 1 to 1.5 months but it might be as little as 2-3 weeks. 

[RarityFlaherty]

29 minutes ago, oriolediehard said:

Is it realistic to hope that one of or all 3 of McDermott, Popvich and Seth Johnson could step up this year?

 

I feel like it’s somewhat realistic to hope that one of the three could help out in the bullpen by the end of the year, but I don’t think it’s realistic at all to hope one can help the rotation. I wouldn’t be betting the season right now on any of them making a significant contribution, they should just be seen as options in case we have more injuries. 

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, RarityFlaherty said:

I feel like it’s somewhat realistic to hope that one of the three could help out in the bullpen by the end of the year, but I don’t think it’s realistic at all to hope one can help the rotation.

I don’t feel that way at all.  McDermott threw 50 innings in AAA as a starter, to a 2.49 ERA.  He lowered his BB rate to a reasonable number.   Explain to me why it’s unrealistic to hope he could help our rotation sometime this year?  

[RarityFlaherty]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I don’t feel that way at all.  McDermott threw 50 innings in AAA as a starter, to a 2.49 ERA.  He lowered his BB rate to a reasonable number.   Explain to me why it’s unrealistic to hope he could help our rotation sometime this year?  

Hope was the wrong word. I guess I pushed things more to expect instead of hope. You could definitely hope for that to happen. We should all be hoping for all of the prospects to hit. I just don’t think it would be wise to go into the season with that hope affecting what we did or didn’t do in the offseason. 

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, RarityFlaherty said:

Hope was the wrong word. I guess I pushed things more to expect instead of hope. You could definitely hope for that to happen. We should all be hoping for all of the prospects to hit. I just don’t think it would be wise to go into the season with that hope affecting what we did or didn’t do in the offseason. 

OK, we are on the same page here.  I’d put the odds that McDermott could help our rotation in 2024 somewhere around 25%.