Roch: Holliday, Mayo, Kjerstad, Stowers, Norby, and Al Suarez optioned

[Aristotelian]

2 hours ago, forphase1 said:

I don't think so.   Service time is guaranteed if they keep down long enough.   The pick is a huge gamble.   While interpreters for Japanese megastars may like to gamble,  most GMs don't.   A guaranteed extra year of Holliday is a much safer bet than a chance to win ROY and get the pick.   

The pick is not guaranteed because Holliday can finish top two. It is only guaranteed if they plan to keep him down so long he has no chance at ROY. I think the smartest way to play it would be to give him a shot at RoY & pick on opening day, then demote him for a month if he doesn't get off to a hot start. That is the only way to guarantee pick or extra year without keeping him down til August.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

The pick is not guaranteed because Holliday can finish top two. It is only guaranteed if they plan to keep him down so long he has no chance at ROY. I think the smartest way to play it would be to give him a shot at RoY & pick on opening day, then demote him for a month if he doesn't get off to a hot start. That is the only way to guarantee pick or extra year without keeping him down til August.

That doesn’t guarantee anything.  You don’t get a pick unless the player (2) wins ROY, and (2) is on the active roster for 172+ days.  

[forphase1]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

The pick is not guaranteed because Holliday can finish top two. It is only guaranteed if they plan to keep him down so long he has no chance at ROY. I think the smartest way to play it would be to give him a shot at RoY & pick on opening day, then demote him for a month if he doesn't get off to a hot start. That is the only way to guarantee pick or extra year without keeping him down til August.

As I said,  service time is guaranteed IF you keep him down long enough.   Clearly if they bring him up in 2 weeks he can still finish in the top 2 ROY voting and the year is then lost.  But in 2 months it'd be doubtful, and the longer he's down, the less the chance he can challenge for top 2.  At some point its pretty much guaranteed.  

Now that he's down I expect him to be down for quite a while really,  way longer than most want to see.   I hope I'm wrong,  but I wasn't on him not making the OD, and I don't think I will be here either.   If I'm a betting man,  I put the odds of being down only a couple of weeks at about 15%, long enough to miss Super 2 at about 35%, long enough past Super 2 date to ensure no ROY (tons of variables here) at 30%, and the dreaded 'down long enough to ensure ROY eligibility for 2025' at about 20%.  

Again,  I think him,  and Mayo too, should both be on the OD roster.  But this was the move I expected all along.   And the same logic applies to the next move,  that being how long he's down.   

[Brooks The Great]

3 hours ago, Sanity Check said:

You are in the minority here for sure, but I agree with you 150%.  Norby is the infield's version of Kyle Stowers.

I honestly believe that Norby should have made the Opening Day roster. He's major league ready, and he would fill a role immediately as the primary righty DH until Mayo and Holliday are called up.

The O's Opening Day lineup is quite possibly going to feature someone like Jorge Mateo as the DH, which is pathetic. It may end up being Westburg at DH and Mateo at 2B, but Mateo shoudn't be starting for this team, period. The only other realistic option is O'Hearn, but he was used almost exclusively in a platoon role last season, and expanding his role to a more everyday one - even on a short-term basis - is counter to Elias/Sig and their analytical approach.

I'd trust Cowser in a DH role against LHP more than O'Hearn, Mateo, McKenna, Nevin, or anyone else who's not one of the prospects that were just sent down to AAA, but Elias and Hyde have made it clear that they don't trust Cowser outside of a platoon role, and they're going to give those at bats to a far less talented player (if Westburg is in the lineup at 2B and not DHing against lefties). Which will be a mistake.

Norby on the team would have been the right roster decision to provide a better lineup against LHP early in the season.

 

[eddie83]

2 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:

I honestly believe that Norby should have made the Opening Day roster. He's major league ready, and he would fill a role immediately as the primary righty DH until Mayo and Holliday are called up.

The O's Opening Day lineup is quite possibly going to feature someone like Jorge Mateo as the DH, which is pathetic. It may end up being Westburg at DH and Mateo at 2B, but Mateo shoudn't be starting for this team, period. The only other realistic option is O'Hearn, but he was used almost exclusively in a platoon role last season, and expanding his role to a more everyday one - even on a short-term basis - is counter to Elias/Sig and their analytical approach.

I'd trust Cowser in a DH role against LHP more than O'Hearn, Mateo, McKenna, Nevin, or anyone else who's not one of the prospects that were just sent down to AAA, but Elias and Hyde have made it clear that they don't trust Cowser outside of a platoon role, and they're going to give those at bats to a far less talented player (if Westburg is in the lineup at 2B and not DHing against lefties). Which will be a mistake.

Norby on the team would have been the right roster decision to provide a better lineup against LHP early in the season.

 

All of this is why I like McKenna’s chances to make the team now.  

[Billy F-Face3]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

The guy never heard of a warranty?  Who goes from an old beat up car to a new Corvette?  Who keeps the old beat up car after getting a new Corvette?

Your story has more holes than Frazier's defense.

You jumped the gun on me before having all the info. He used the Warrenty to replace the engine and got rid of the Corvette ASAP and eventually bought a used Ford Mustang which he still has to this day.

[Billy F-Face3]

Also alot of people like to keep a daily driver so that miles on the sports car/muscle car can stay low, plus fuel economy reasons.

[RVAOsFan]

17 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

All of this is why I like McKenna’s chances to make the team now.  

I would definitely prefer seeing Norby on the roster getting at bats than McKenna 

[Brooks The Great]

1 minute ago, RVAOsFan said:

I would definitely prefer seeing Norby on the roster getting at bats than McKenna 

Elias and Hyde's infatuation with McKenna is really mind-blowing.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

20 minutes ago, Brooks The Great said:

Elias and Hyde's infatuation with McKenna is really mind-blowing.

I like McKenna more that most, but even I have a hard time keeping him on the roster with Cowser and Kjerstad as available options. The one thing McKenna has going for him right now is he's the best defensive CF besides Mullins.

But if Mateo can play CF decently enough then you let him be your defensive super sub and pinch runner. I'm hoping we a trade soon to open up some roster spots while bolstering the starting rotation at the same time.

[Rojo13]

9 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

After Frazier last season and the lack of moves in the offseason to clear the glut this is hardly a surprise even if I do find it disappointing. 

I don't think the best 26 will be going North.

I totally disagree. I think it would MISMANAGEMENT If we sent the best 26 players North.

I'D MUCH RATHER have Holliday for an extra year in 6 years when he's in his physical prime than to have him for 16 days this year. One position player makes very little difference.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Rojo13 said:

I totally disagree. I think it would MISMANAGEMENT If we sent the best 26 players North.

I'D MUCH RATHER have Holliday for an extra year in 6 years when he's in his physical prime than to have him for 16 days this year. One position player makes very little difference.

Worked out great with Adley,,,

And just like Adley I'll be rooting for the player to earn his year.

Sign the guy to a deal if you want the 7th year.

[Billy F-Face3]

Either way, this was not an easy decision to make and I imagine the Front Office was very lively with debates during meetings about whether to add Jackson Holliday now or way. This Front Office has always taken a conservative approach to player development so that's what they landed on. The worst case scenario would have been him struggling for half the season like Gunnar vs LHP or Cowser last year only for people to yell to send him back down. 

They took the safe approach thinking about the long term regarding his career as an Orioles player and his development at a new position.

And for anyone who says just give him an extension, even if the Orioles offered it, he wouldn't accept because his agent has a philosophy of waiting to see what's available in free agency.

 

There was alot of agonizing about reaching this decision. It was not an easy decision either way. I imagine the subject sparked some arguments in meetings.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Either way, this was not an easy decision to make and I imagine the Front Office was very lively with debates during meetings about whether to add Jackson Holliday now or way. This Front Office has always taken a conservative approach to player development so that's what they landed on. The worst case scenario would have been him struggling for half the season like Gunnar vs LHP or Cowser last year only for people to yell to send him back down. 

They took the safe approach thinking about the long term regarding his career as an Orioles player and his development at a new position.

And for anyone who says just give him an extension, even if the Orioles offered it, he wouldn't accept because his agent has a philosophy of waiting to see what's available in free agency.

 

There was alot of agonizing about reaching this decision. It was not an easy decision either way. I imagine the subject sparked some arguments in meetings.

THE AGENT IS THE EMPLOYEE.

How do people not understand this?

You convince the player and he tells his employee.

You don't just give up and not even try.

[Malike]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

THE AGENT IS THE EMPLOYEE.

How do people not understand this?

You convince the player and he tells his employee.

You don't just give up and not even try.

I think most people understand the agent is the employee. I also think most people understand that Boras, while being the employee is generally hired by people who are looking for max contracts, not "snuff deals" in his words. I'm fairly confident, being a lowly employee, he has their ear.