ESPN's Season Preview

[Uli2001]

The ESPN season preview is out:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/39785389/mlb-2024-season-preview-opening-day-power-rankings-playoff-odds-all-30-teams

I know these rankings are good for nothing, but here the predict the Orioles to win 14 fewer games than last year, and give no rationale whatsoever for that.

[Spy Fox]

The records given there would have the O's, Jays, Rays, and Rangers finishing in a four-way tie for the three WC spots at 87-75. That would be something. 

[dystopia]

1 hour ago, Uli2001 said:

The ESPN season preview is out:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/39785389/mlb-2024-season-preview-opening-day-power-rankings-playoff-odds-all-30-teams

I know these rankings are good for nothing, but here the predict the Orioles to win 14 fewer games than last year, and give no rationale whatsoever for that.

Nobody needs a rationale, it’s just always assumed the Orioles will regress no matter who they add. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 hour ago, Uli2001 said:

The ESPN season preview is out:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/39785389/mlb-2024-season-preview-opening-day-power-rankings-playoff-odds-all-30-teams

I know these rankings are good for nothing, but here the predict the Orioles to win 14 fewer games than last year, and give no rationale whatsoever for that.

We significantly outperformed our Pythagorean record last year and didn't upgrade this year's roster to any notable degree.

[ThisIsBirdland]

1 minute ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

We significantly outperformed our Pythagorean record last year and didn't upgrade this year's roster to any notable degree.

We outperformed it by 7 games, they’re expecting a regression of 14 games. I don’t enjoy the constant media complaints, but I don’t think a 14 game regression is likely either.

[Aglets]

5 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

We significantly outperformed our Pythagorean record last year and didn't upgrade this year's roster to any notable degree.

How many Cy Young Award winners would we need to add to our rotation for it to count as a "notable" upgrade?

[baltfan]

Spring training makes me thinks this is going to be wrong.  Spring Training stats don't always mean a lot, but the games I watched this team just looked so talented and sure of itself.

[Uli2001]

2 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Spring training makes me thinks this is going to be wrong.  Spring Training stats don't always mean a lot, but the games I watched this team just looked so talented and sure of itself.

It wouldn't be the first time either.

A regression to the pythagorean record, okay I could buy that. Not a regression of 14 games.

[baltfan]

1 minute ago, Uli2001 said:

It wouldn't be the first time either.

A regression to the pythagorean record, okay I could buy that. Not a regression of 14 games.

And people seem to forget that Means didn't start the season and Bradish was hurt in the first game he pitched.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

People need to stop taking ESPN’s coverage of baseball seriously. ESPN covers NFL, college football, NBA and college basketball before getting to MLB these days. 

[MCO'sFan]

1 hour ago, Spy Fox said:

The records given there would have the O's, Jays, Rays, and Rangers finishing in a four-way tie for the three WC spots at 87-75. That would be something. 

And of course, ESPN has the NYY winning the East. It should just be called the YES/ESPN Network

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 minute ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

We outperformed it by 7 games, they’re expecting a regression of 14 games. I don’t enjoy the constant media complaints, but I don’t think a 14 game regression is likely either.

I don't agree with such a precipitous drop either, but there is certainly reason to think the team could regress a not-insignificant amount this year.

2 minutes ago, Aglets said:

How many Cy Young Award winners would we need to add to our rotation for it to count as a "notable" upgrade?

We added one TOR SP and lost another for an indeterminate period of time, and we lost our elite closer and replaced him with a guy in his mid-30s who has been up and down in recent years. Other than that, the team is more or less the same.

That's not exactly what I would call a "notable upgrade" over last year's roster, but YMMV.

 

 

[now]

20 minutes ago, Aglets said:

How many Cy Young Award winners would we need to add to our rotation for it to count as a "notable" upgrade?

And compare a recent MLB.com article ranking our rotation as (tied for) 10th best.

[Sanity Check]

1 hour ago, Uli2001 said:

The ESPN season preview is out:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/39785389/mlb-2024-season-preview-opening-day-power-rankings-playoff-odds-all-30-teams

I know these rankings are good for nothing, but here the predict the Orioles to win 14 fewer games than last year, and give no rationale whatsoever for that.

Clearly ESPN doesn't drink Orange Kool Aid.  Honestly, it's probably good to have bulletin board material like this to keep everyone focused on the prize and wanting to prove these folks (among others) wrong.

Or, maybe it's the difference in the combined WAR that Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo would have given us vs. what we'll get from Tyler Nevin and Ramon Urias.  Ok, I'm not really serious about that one, but just wanted to be the first to say it.

[Can_of_corn]

21 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

We outperformed it by 7 games, they’re expecting a regression of 14 games. I don’t enjoy the constant media complaints, but I don’t think a 14 game regression is likely either.

Yep, 7 games.

But they also outperformed their expected offense.