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Do the Orioles believe in blockbuster extensions?

emmett16

By emmett16
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Will the Orioles sign any players to blockbuster extensions?   

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  1. 1. Will the Orioles sign any players to blockbuster extensions?


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waroriole Hangout Grand Counsel

waroriole

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4 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

It's too early to say with the new ownership. the obvious answer was no with the Angelos-led ownership. 

Ask me this next spring after new ownership has a chance to get their feet under them.

This. There’s just no way to know given the restraints of previous ownership. Given where Elias comes from, I could see some potential for aversion to long term extensions. 

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Aglets
Aglets

It depends if the young player is a potential HOF level elite talent or not.  If yes.....then absolutely you try and extend him because no system is good enough to reliably be able to churn out a repl

Just Regular
Just Regular

At a glance Jeremy Pena looks like the only strong young player going from Rounds 2-5 of the Astros Luhnow years.    The draft misses their famous successes with Yordan, Altuve, and the set of Latin A

Frobby
Frobby

The Rays have had a lot more continuity than people realize.    Longoria played 10 years there, Kiermaier played 10 years there, Zobrist played 9 years there, Crawford played 9 years there.  They sign

emmett16 Hangout Grand Counsel

emmett16

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55 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I tend to think being too dogmatic towards any modality/methodology is probably unwise. 

I get believing in your data/science/developmental process. But I also shudder to think about an org willing to take so much risk in trying to do something that no one else has ever done. In essence they would be saying we are the smartest guys in the room/game, and we are willing to bet it all on that belief. The hubris is that may not turn out well in the end.

I’m not saying they are being dogmatic to a philosophy, but rather wondering if they can create an accurate model to predict what an MLB producer looks like from all the data & metrics gathered on players from their  age 15 to 25(average MLB debut) year old seasons.  

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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25 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I tend to agree.  And history shows a pattern of clubs wrapping up those type of guys.  But, players that continue high-end performance from years 29+ are very few and far between.  I’m just wondering if they don’t think the juices worth the squeeze and that they can hedge their bets with younger up and coming replaceable talent.  

Holliday and Henderson aren’t signing beyond that age anyway. (Unless it’s an opt out type thing like Witt did)

Adley would be different.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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14 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

My bad - shouldn’t have said ego.  I meant confidence in their models (from an abundance of long term data points from very young to MLB producer)  and drafting & development methodologies.  

Again, this is why they shouldn’t sign middling players..or overpriced relievers, starters, role players, etc…

Stars and scrubs.

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Bemorewins Hangout Grand Counsel

Bemorewins

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14 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I’m not saying they are being dogmatic to a philosophy, but rather wondering if they can create an accurate model to predict what an MLB producer looks like from all the data & metrics gathered on players from their  age 15 to 25(average MLB debut) year old seasons.  

Never investing meaningful in FA or extensions sounds dogmatic to me.

It is an interesting question that you raise though. Even if that were to be the case/true, I wonder how long it would hold as a  competitive advantage?

Two things would inevitably happen IMO. 1) Other, more lucrative offers would be made to Elias and Sig from wealthier owners. 2) Even if they stayed, some of their subordinates, who know the secret sauce would eventually leave to run their own teams. And this the “cat would be out of the bag” so to speak.

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Just Regular Hangout Grand Counsel

Just Regular

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At a glance Jeremy Pena looks like the only strong young player going from Rounds 2-5 of the Astros Luhnow years.    The draft misses their famous successes with Yordan, Altuve, and the set of Latin American pitchers that sustained them in the latter years of the present run.

They purchased 2 extra years of Alex Bregman - I think he is the only Round 1 centerpiece who sold extra years to the drafting Club.

2011 - Springer walked

2012 - Correa walked

2013 - Appel busted

2014 - Aiken fiasco resulted in deferral to 2015 of top-tier draftee

2015 - Bregman sold Years 7 and 8, Tucker year-to-year in Arb despite being one of the league's very best players

2016 - Whitley busted

It isn't Luhnow, or even a Luhnow lieutenant's watch anymore, but Jim Crane's financial backing has so far only resulted in 25% of the Springer/Correa/Bregman/Tucker group of high 1st round hits selling FA years to the drafting Club.

More efficient to spend on Montgomery now, or Bregman/Tucker later, should Rubenstein really want to splash the pool?    

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RZNJ Hangout Grand Counsel

RZNJ

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I think the biggest question is going to be if they try to trade any of these elite players before they become free agents.  You could argue that Rutschman, Holliday, Henderson, Basallo, are elite talents.  I hesitate to put Mayo there.   Two were 1:1 picks.   We aren’t getting those types anymore.  Getting Henderson was great but, obviously, not easily repeatable.   Yes, I think ME and Sig believe they can draft and develop the Santander, Mullins types from the draft and get the elites through the Latin American program but I do think they’ll see the PR and practical need to at least sign 2-3 homegrown players (elites) to big extensions.  

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emmett16 Hangout Grand Counsel

emmett16

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55 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Never investing meaningful in FA or extensions sounds dogmatic to me.

It is an interesting question that you raise though. Even if that were to be the case/true, I wonder how long it would hold as a  competitive advantage?

Two things would inevitably happen IMO. 1) Other, more lucrative offers would be made to Elias and Sig from wealthier owners. 2) Even if they stayed, some of their subordinates, who know the secret sauce would eventually leave to run their own teams. And this the “cat would be out of the bag” so to speak.

Good post.  And good questions.  Yes, that’s the real long term question.  How long can you be ahead of the pack?  
 

The Dodgers to me are the best org. In baseball.  They develop better than most and spend to hold talent and depth.  Is there a better way to do it where your valuable roster spots aren’t locked into long term expensive contracts that negate flexibility? 

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emmett16 Hangout Grand Counsel

emmett16

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26 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I think the biggest question is going to be if they try to trade any of these elite players before they become free agents.  You could argue that Rutschman, Holliday, Henderson, Basallo, are elite talents.  I hesitate to put Mayo there.   Two were 1:1 picks.   We aren’t getting those types anymore.  Getting Henderson was great but, obviously, not easily repeatable.   Yes, I think ME and Sig believe they can draft and develop the Santander, Mullins types from the draft and get the elites through the Latin American program but I do think they’ll see the PR and practical need to at least sign 2-3 homegrown players (elites) to big extensions.  

The PR and practical need are the two things Lunhow threw out the window with no remorse.  

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