Winter 2024 40-Man Additions

[Warehouse]

27 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s extremely hard for a contender to nurse a Rule 5 pitcher through a full season.  I’m not saying it can’t be done, but the failures outnumber the successes by a wide margin.   

The inflexibility of having one fewer player with an option really hurts (and if you get to August/September and are forced to DFA/return the player, then it is all a waste).  

It’s particularly hard to find someone worth the inflexible roster spot when you are picking toward the end of the first round.

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

It’s extremely hard for a contender to nurse a Rule 5 pitcher through a full season.  I’m not saying it can’t be done, but the failures outnumber the successes by a wide margin.   

No disagreement. Question of keeping him on the Ross all season, it’s just a question of being able to get a very close look at them during spring  training.

If there’s room, there’s absolutely no reason not to take a couple of gambles because you’ve got not just spring training to work on the Guy, but you’ve got the winter months and whatever training program the team has available before then.

And the team is gonna start the season with a bunch of Likely fellows in the minors anyway, so it’s no handicap to carry a gamble for a little while.

[wildcard]

On 9/10/2024 at 8:07 AM, Jammer7 said:

I get all of that, sure. But they need pen guys on the active roster who have options so they can send them down and bring others up. No? Unless you want to DFA people. I am not sure that both Webb and Coulombe will be back. 

I am pretty confident that Webb and Coulombe will be on the 2025 O's team.

Injuries happen.   When they do guys like McDermott, Rogers and Young can be on the shuttle.

[Jammer7]

34 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I am pretty confident that Webb and Coulombe will be on the 2025 O's team.

Injuries happen.   When they do guys like McDermott, Rogers and Young can be on the shuttle.

Both are deserving. That’s not the point. How they construct the pen in ‘25 may be different. None of the guys you mentioned have been pen guys, although McDermott probably should be. Young and Rogers are more of a starter repertoire. Armbruster and others, like Tony said in another thread, should be pen arms.

You need flexible and effective arms to move up and down, while they gain experience. We need some guys with some swing and miss stuff. Adding Bautista back into the back end moves everyone down a notch, but some of the guys we have now will likely have to move on for the purposes of flexibility. There is always some natural turnover, and for good reason. 

[wildcard]

50 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Both are deserving. That’s not the point. How they construct the pen in ‘25 may be different. None of the guys you mentioned have been pen guys, although McDermott probably should be. Young and Rogers are more of a starter repertoire. Armbruster and others, like Tony said in another thread, should be pen arms.

You need flexible and effective arms to move up and down, while they gain experience. We need some guys with some swing and miss stuff. Adding Bautista back into the back end moves everyone down a notch, but some of the guys we have now will likely have to move on for the purposes of flexibility. There is always some natural turnover, and for good reason. 

For me the core pen next year is Bautista, Soto, Cano, Coulombe, Akin, Dominguez and Webb.   There is plenty of swing and miss there.    I see Perez and Bowman on the bubble.     Elias may use Rogers, McDermott or Young  as long men.   

There has already been a fair about of turnover with Kinbrel, Tate, Irvin,  and Baumann gone.   I don't expect Baker, Smith or Vespi back.     

Elias will no doubt add some waiver wire guys and make some small purchases.    We could see a FA signing to add to the staff but I think Elias did most of his shopping at the deadline.

[Jammer7]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

For me the core pen next year is Bautista, Soto, Cano, Coulombe, Akin, Dominguez and Webb.   There is plenty of swing and miss there.    I see Perez and Bowman on the bubble.     Elias may use Rogers, McDermott or Young  as long men.   

There has already been a fair about of turnover with Kinbrel, Tate, Irvin,  and Baumann gone.   I don't expect Baker, Smith or Vespi back.     

Elias will no doubt add some waiver wire guys and make some small purchases.    We could see a FA signing to add to the staff but I think Elias did most of his shopping at the deadline.

Bautista, if he is back to his old self, would be a big addition. Dominguez and Soto have to improve the walk rate. They certainly have swing and miss, but at a significant cost. Cano can throw up in the zone and get misses, but he is used so often he is rarely sharp. He is used to induce ground balls, and the sinker is fairly effective when he is tired. 

Akin, Webb and Coulombe are getting some swing and miss. They are all above average in swinging strike percentage, according to FanGraphs. MLB average is generally around 11.2% from year to year, and Akin (second on the Orioles behind Grayson 13.6) is at 13.2, Dominguez 12.4, Cano 12.2, Soto 12.9, Webb 11.8, Coulombe is 9.9 and Cionel 9.5. In fairness to Coulombe (11.8) and Webb (13.7), they are higher over the last three years. They have not been healthy for a fair amount of this season and pitched through some things that made those numbers dip, perhaps. 

Bautista was 18% in the same period of 2022-2024. He would be 11th in MLB in 2024. No other Oriole is in the top 100 in MLB. Grayson Rodriguez is at #120. It should be noted that Andrew Walters is at 18.8, ranking 7th. He was our unsigned 18th round pick in 2022.

All of that aside, I am not sure the pen is structured the same as in recent years. There may be some moves there. Or, perhaps it is like you wrote, and they focus on Soto and Dominguez making adjustments to having more command, decreasing the walks. Those two are getting a little expensive as well. I guess we’ll see. 

 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Jammer7 said:

Bautista, if he is back to his old self, would be a big addition. Dominguez and Soto have to improve the walk rate. They certainly have swing and miss, but at a significant cost. Cano can throw up in the zone and get misses, but he is used so often he is rarely sharp. He is used to induce ground balls, and the sinker is fairly effective when he is tired. 

Akin, Webb and Coulombe are getting some swing and miss. They are all above average in swinging strike percentage, according to FanGraphs. MLB average is generally around 11.2% from year to year, and Akin (second on the Orioles behind Grayson 13.6) is at 13.2, Dominguez 12.4, Cano 12.2, Soto 12.9, Webb 11.8, Coulombe is 9.9 and Cionel 9.5. In fairness to Coulombe (11.8) and Webb (13.7), they are higher over the last three years. They have not been healthy for a fair amount of this season and pitched through some things that made those numbers dip, perhaps. 

Bautista was 18% in the same period of 2022-2024. He would be 11th in MLB in 2024. No other Oriole is in the top 100 in MLB. Grayson Rodriguez is at #120. It should be noted that Andrew Walters is at 18.8, ranking 7th. He was our unsigned 18th round pick in 2022.

All of that aside, I am not sure the pen is structured the same as in recent years. There may be some moves there. Or, perhaps it is like you wrote, and they focus on Soto and Dominguez making adjustments to having more command, decreasing the walks. Those two are getting a little expensive as well. I guess we’ll see. 

 

Elias traded for Soto and Dominguez having control of them through 2025.   In Soto's case they give up a good pitching prospect in Seth Johnson.  Elias knew what their salaries would be and made the trades anyway.   That makes me think he is ready to pay them.

After a couple of bad games Soto has gone 19 appearance with a 1.13 ERA  in 16 IP and 20 K and 4 BB.    They simplified his delivery and it as worked.

Dominguez has the velo that Elias was looking for.   I think working on this control will be a ST goal,