Gunnar Henderson 2024

[Just Regular]

If it is the offseason, an outcome of a playoff series between Bobby Witt and Gunnar Henderson's teams could also be fresh in view.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

3 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Agreed, I was just taking issue with the "no reason" comment. I don't have SG's certainty that he would accept but he definitely has reasons to accept.

Fair enough.

FWIW, this is definitely a situation where I would like nothing more than to be wrong, I just don't think I am.

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

There is a lot wrong with this.

First of all, this deal was offered to him in July of 2022, when he was only 2 years away from FA.

Secondly, Soto knew he was going to make 50ishM for the 2 years left under team control.

So that deal was 13/390.  That is “only” 30M a year, which is low.  The deal was also heavily backloaded, which he didn’t like. 
 

Had the offered him 500M, I think he signs the deal but since they didn’t, he felt the gamble was worth it for just 2 years (Gunnar has 4).
 

Also, he seemed to doubt the direction of the team, which I would doubt Gunnar would do.

https://amp.foxsports.com/stories/mlb/nationals-juan-soto-discusses-rejecting-15-year-440m-offer

There was nothing "wrong" with it, but you could argue that further context was required, which I personally think is debatable but I'll freely admit that it is not a perfect 1:1 comparison. It does however illustrate pretty clearly that Boras and his clients are perfectly willing to decline historically large guaranteed paydays in the pursuit of even larger guaranteed paydays despite the inherent risk that doing so will result in a payday that is smaller than the one they initially chose to decline, which is ultimately the most relevant aspect here. That is the bottom line.

Barring a legitimately career-ending injury, Gunnar has already played well enough that he isn't going to be non-tendered before arb-2 or (more likely) arb-3, even if his production completely falls off a cliff tomorrow for some bizarre reason, so he is already guaranteed to make plenty of money to provide a comfortable life for his family forever. In other words, I don't think that either he or Boras will weigh the possibility of injury derailing his ability to earn anywhere close to as heavily as you are. The miniscule percentage of high end Boras clients that have sold free agent years prior to reaching free agency over the years clearly demonstrates how little that factors into their decision-making process.

The only thing that is really in question here IMO is how much total guaranteed money Gunnar will secure for his services starting in 2029 and who will be on the hook for it, and I believe that the available evidence indicates that we won't know that until late 2028/early 2029.

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Fair enough.

FWIW, this is definitely a situation where I would like nothing more than to be wrong, I just don't think I am.

There was nothing "wrong" with it, but you could argue that further context was required, which I personally think is debatable but I'll freely admit that it is not a perfect 1:1 comparison. It does however illustrate pretty clearly that Boras and his clients are perfectly willing to decline historically large guaranteed paydays in the pursuit of even larger guaranteed paydays despite the inherent risk that doing so will result in a payday that is smaller than the one they initially chose to decline, which is ultimately the most relevant aspect here. That is the bottom line.

Barring a legitimately career-ending injury, Gunnar has already played well enough that he isn't going to be non-tendered before arb-2 or (more likely) arb-3, even if his production completely falls off a cliff tomorrow for some bizarre reason, so he is already guaranteed to make plenty of money to provide a comfortable life for his family forever. In other words, I don't think that either he or Boras will weigh the possibility of injury derailing his ability to earn anywhere close to as heavily as you are. The miniscule percentage of high end Boras clients that have sold free agent years prior to reaching free agency over the years clearly demonstrates how little that factors into their decision-making process.

The only thing that is really in question here IMO is how much total guaranteed money Gunnar will secure for his services starting in 2029 and who will be on the hook for it, and I believe that the available evidence indicates that we won't know that until late 2028/early 2029.

But he’s not guaranteed that his arb2, which in turn also means arb3, money will be at its highest point and he’s not guaranteed those early FA years will be 35ishM either.

[banks703]

54 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

There is a lot wrong with this.

First of all, this deal was offered to him in July of 2022, when he was only 2 years away from FA.

Secondly, Soto knew he was going to make 50ishM for the 2 years left under team control.

So that deal was 13/390.  That is “only” 30M a year, which is low.  The deal was also heavily backloaded, which he didn’t like. 
 

Had the offered him 500M, I think he signs the deal but since they didn’t, he felt the gamble was worth it for just 2 years (Gunnar has 4).
 

Also, he seemed to doubt the direction of the team, which I would doubt Gunnar would do.

https://amp.foxsports.com/stories/mlb/nationals-juan-soto-discusses-rejecting-15-year-440m-offer

This is all correct. And to add to it, If Gunnar only continues being this version of Gunnar, he is out-valued only by the sole two-way player in baseball (Ohtani). So, comparing Soto to Gunnar in a vacuum might make some sense, their situations are vastly different.

The closeness of the young guys has been well documented and we know that the group of Adley, Gunnar, Mountcastle, Stowers, Westy and Cowser are all strong in their faith. I do believe that will play some part in the contract finagling. I do not know any of them personally and with the union, the pressure of the sport, endorsements, etc. etc. ... I realize that at the end of the day guys are going to want what they are worth but I have long thought two things about this crop of players: they are incredibly consistent but they also seem to be genuinely good kids who want to win and put the team first.

We don't know yet what will happen over the next few years with these players but I wouldn't be surprised to see a version of what the cast of Friends did early in the show's run, where they essentially formed their own union of sorts and structured their compensation so that none of them would become bigger than the sum of their parts.

Again, I don't know them personally and I am fully in-tune with the idea that they all want to be paid but I think that their closeness means more to them than Soto's relationship with his teammates in Washington, and I think that holds true with respect to almost literally any other free agent in the history of the game. They are very unique in that they have this young group who are all 23 - 27 right now who are very tight. I happen to think that the stars of this team will be more inclined to consider more team-friendly deals if it means that their posse can stay in-tact for a longer duration of time.

Call me naïve but that's how I see it. I've been intimately involved in the game at various levels myself and I can honestly say that I can't remember a group of young players who demonstrated a caring for each other to the same level of these kids. It could mean nothing when Gunnar is being thrown half a billion dollars or when Adley is offered the moon but I just don't see these players being as motivated by money as other (especially recent) stars. 

I agree 100% that Gunnar would jump all over that Witt Jr. deal. I think he is smart enough to know that anything could happen over the next five years. Plus $288 million is a shitload of money. I don't know how  many generations of wealth that is but damn that's a lot of money for a soon to be 23 year old kid. 

 

[Bemorewins]

6 minutes ago, banks703 said:

This is all correct. And to add to it, If Gunnar only continues being this version of Gunnar, he is out-valued only by the sole two-way player in baseball (Ohtani). So, comparing Soto to Gunnar in a vacuum might make some sense, their situations are vastly different.

The closeness of the young guys has been well documented and we know that the group of Adley, Gunnar, Mountcastle, Stowers, Westy and Cowser are all strong in their faith. I do believe that will play some part in the contract finagling. I do not know any of them personally and with the union, the pressure of the sport, endorsements, etc. etc. ... I realize that at the end of the day guys are going to want what they are worth but I have long thought two things about this crop of players: they are incredibly consistent but they also seem to be genuinely good kids who want to win and put the team first.

We don't know yet what will happen over the next few years with these players but I wouldn't be surprised to see a version of what the cast of Friends did early in the show's run, where they essentially formed their own union of sorts and structured their compensation so that none of them would become bigger than the sum of their parts.

Again, I don't know them personally and I am fully in-tune with the idea that they all want to be paid but I think that their closeness means more to them than Soto's relationship with his teammates in Washington, and I think that holds true with respect to almost literally any other free agent in the history of the game. They are very unique in that they have this young group who are all 23 - 27 right now who are very tight. I happen to think that the stars of this team will be more inclined to consider more team-friendly deals if it means that their posse can stay in-tact for a longer duration of time.

Call me naïve but that's how I see it. I've been intimately involved in the game at various levels myself and I can honestly say that I can't remember a group of young players who demonstrated a caring for each other to the same level of these kids. It could mean nothing when Gunnar is being thrown half a billion dollars or when Adley is offered the moon but I just don't see these players being as motivated by money as other (especially recent) stars. 

I agree 100% that Gunnar would jump all over that Witt Jr. deal. I think he is smart enough to know that anything could happen over the next five years. Plus $288 million is a shitload of money. I don't know how  many generations of wealth that is but damn that's a lot of money for a soon to be 23 year old kid. 

 

This is a nice fuzzy notion.

But why wouldn't they be motivated by making as much money as they can? It is their job/livelihood/how they can set up themselves and their future generations for wealth. They can still have their faith and be friends while being on different teams.

You don't choose Boras as an agent and then go, "You know what? After all, money is not that important to me."

We're going to have to pony up and pay good/great players what they deserve, as it should be.

[banks703]

7 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

This is a nice fuzzy notion.

But why wouldn't they be motivated by making as much money as they can? It is their job/livelihood/how they can set up themselves and their future generations for wealth. They can still have their faith and be friends while being on different teams.

You don't choose Boras as an agent and then go, "You know what? After all, money is not that important to me."

We're going to have to pony up and pay good/great players what they deserve, as it should be.

I'm not suggesting that they don't want to be paid. Of course they want to be paid. I'm merely offering that if the decision is between $300 million and $320 million for Gunnar and $320 million meant that they wouldn't be able to extend another guy, I happen to think that he'd take the lower. That is my gut feeling and yeah, it might be naïve or fuzzy but that's the impression that I get from this core. 

Elias has shown that he is very transparent about and to his org. I'm sure they have a short-term and long-term budget that will obviously change as years go but I bet their management and ownership teams have an idea of what they can afford right now over the next five years, maybe even ten years and I am willing to bet that each of these guys are somewhat looped into it. Do they have decision power? No but I would be shocked if decisions are made by management/ownership (with this group) without players having an inkling of it. 

At the end of the day, the difference between $300 and $320 isn't as big to the person who is receiving it as it seems to us. 

[Bemorewins]

4 minutes ago, banks703 said:

I'm not suggesting that they don't want to be paid. Of course they want to be paid. I'm merely offering that if the decision is between $300 million and $320 million for Gunnar and $320 million meant that they wouldn't be able to extend another guy, I happen to think that he'd take the lower. That is my gut feeling and yeah, it might be naïve or fuzzy but that's the impression that I get from this core. 

Elias has shown that he is very transparent about and to his org. I'm sure they have a short-term and long-term budget that will obviously change as years go but I bet their management and ownership teams have an idea of what they can afford right now over the next five years, maybe even ten years and I am willing to bet that each of these guys are somewhat looped into it. Do they have decision power? No but I would be shocked if decisions are made by management/ownership (with this group) without players having an inkling of it. 

At the end of the day, the difference between $300 and $320 isn't as big to the person who is receiving it as it seems to us. 

It would be a SERIOUS indictment on the Orioles organization, Rubenstein, and Elias to allow a generational talent like Henderson walk over 20 million dollars. What is 20 million dollars to a multi-billionaire like Rubenstien? And then you add the other billions by his investment group, it's insane to think about.

Again, Gunnar is no different than most other players who have chosen Boras. Boras has been hired to get Gunnar the best deal/most dollars possible. Not worry about saving the Orioles and Rubenstien a few extra million.

[dystopia]

3 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

It would be a SERIOUS indictment on the Orioles organization, Rubenstein, and Elias to allow a generational talent like Henderson walk over 20 million dollars. What is 20 million dollars to a multi-billionaire like Rubenstien? And then you add the other billions by his investment group, it's insane to think about.

Again, Gunnar is no different than most other players who have chosen Boras. Boras has been hired to get Gunnar the best deal/most dollars possible. Not worry about saving the Orioles and Rubenstien a few extra million.

There’s no incentive for Gunnar to sign an extension. Boras clients don’t sign extensions. Maybe it will be different this time but I doubt it. 

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, dystopia said:

There’s no incentive for Gunnar to sign an extension. Boras clients don’t sign extensions. 

These are both factually wrong statements.

[spleen1015]

10 minutes ago, dystopia said:

There’s no incentive for Gunnar to sign an extension. Boras clients don’t sign extensions. Maybe it will be different this time but I doubt it. 

A simple Google search...

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/history-of-scott-boras-contract-extensions-with-walk-years-looming-for-juan-soto-jose-altuve-more/

Edited June 17 by spleen1015

[Malike]

2 minutes ago, spleen1015 said:

A simple Google search...

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/history-of-scott-boras-contract-extensions-with-walk-years-looming-for-juan-soto-jose-altuve-more/

Has he ever had a player sign a contract pre-arb? Google articles say no, I think that is where the pushback on locking up young talent that are Boras clients comes from, he doesn't do "snuff deals" on MiLB players or pre-arb guys, at least he hasn't yet.

[Goober Noodles]

Has anyone ever looked up Gunnar's high (K-12) school? Stumbled onto it yesterday while looking up stats, and it's rather eye opening...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_T._Morgan_Academy

Quote

 

John T. Morgan Academy, commonly known as Morgan Academy, is a school in Selma, Alabama, USA, originally founded in 1965 as a segregation academy.

The school is named for John Tyler Morgan, a Confederate general and Grand Dragon of the Ku Klux Klan who, as a U.S. Senator, advanced several bills to legalize lynching of African-Americans.^[1] It was founded in 1965, shortly after the Selma to Montgomery marches. The first classes in 1965 were held in the John Tyler Morgan House until a new campus was built in 1967.

After 41 years, the school admitted its first black student in 2008.^[2][3][4]

 

 

 

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Goober Noodles said:

Has anyone ever looked up Gunnar's high (K-12) school? Stumbled onto it yesterday while looking up stats, and it's rather eye opening...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_T._Morgan_Academy

 

 

 

 

Yes, we've had folks complaining about his school before.

[spleen1015]

7 minutes ago, Goober Noodles said:

Has anyone ever looked up Gunnar's high (K-12) school? Stumbled onto it yesterday while looking up stats, and it's rather eye opening...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_T._Morgan_Academy

 

 

 

 

What's your point?

[Moose Milligan]

59 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yes, we've had folks complaining about his school before.

Have we?

I'm not going to complain about it.  "Private schools" in the south are set up this way...sometimes, not all the time.  Basically a way to keep white kids integrated.

That doesn't mean that everyone there's racist.  But hard to have people wanting nuanced conversations these days.

Anyway, Gunnar has given every impression that he's an upstanding guy.  Trying to make some assertion about his character based on where his parents sent him to school is ridiculous.