Jordan Westburg 2024

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

4 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

A big 4 hit game. 2nd highest OPS on the team at .853. 

If we didn’t have Adley, or Gunnar, everyone would be walking around in Westburg jerseys. 

Westburg has the potential to have a Jeff Kent like career offensively with his ability shown so far to hit for good batting average and home run power.

[86this]

Hadn't seen this video prior to the All-Star game.  Also, when Showalter had that office, did he have as much personal stuff around the office?

 

 

[e16bball]

I think Westburg is in a period where he needs to adjust to how the league has adjusted to him. Like the entire team, it seems like, the early approach this season was to get on early pitches and do damage. And it worked really well. But over the last month, things have gotten pretty rough -- just a .634 OPS since June 25. And the BB rate, which was already really low, has basically cratered.

June 25: .287/.340/.520/.860, 5.7 BB%, 21.4 K%, .233 ISO, .332 BABIP, 48.6 HH%

Since June 25: .207/.232/.402, 3.2 BB%, 23.2 K%, .196 ISO, .227 BABIP, 44.3 HH%

One of the big changes seems to be that they're dialing back the fastballs (which he was crushing) and attacking him much more frequently with sliders (which he was, and is, struggling with). The fastball rate is down from 45% to 36% over the last month, and that drop has been offset entirely by the massive increase in sliders (from 28% to 37%). Over the last month, he's actually been thrown more sliders than fastballs.

By way of comparison, no player in baseball has seen 37% sliders over the course of the full season. Javier Baez, the reigning and defending irresponsible swing king, has seen 36.3% sliders this year, and no one else with 150+ PAs has been over 34.4%. Westy is well clear of even Baez over the last month. 

He's chasing more (from 34% up to 37%) and he's making contact a lot less (whiff rate up from 25% to 31%). That whiff rate over the last month is basically bottom 10th percentile. In what seems like "not a coincidence," he's also bottom 10th percentile in run value against sliders in that span.

 

In short, the league has made a major adjustment with Westy. They've clearly noted that his xWOBA against breaking stuff this year is .268, and they're just spamming sliders at him. The crazy (and promising) thing is that this wasn't an issue at all last year -- he was actually +4 runs against sliders/sweepers in his limited duty in 2023. So if he can make the appropriate adjustment and start spitting on the good sliders, I think there's a lot of reason to believe he gets back to who he's been prior to this funk.

[Malike]

 

[banks703]

 

8 minutes ago, Malike said:

 

This makes sense. He and Ramon are the only other guys on the 26 who have played games at SS above AAA. 

Edited July 29 by banks703

[dzorange]

Though it's not a great comparison because one was better at defense and the other is hopefully a better hitter, but I feel like Jordan Westburg is the new J.J. Hardy for Orioles fans.

[OriolesUpAndDowns]

IIRC he was still playing mostly SS at AAA until he came up last year.  

[Say O!]

On 7/27/2024 at 3:22 PM, e16bball said:

I think Westburg is in a period where he needs to adjust to how the league has adjusted to him. Like the entire team, it seems like, the early approach this season was to get on early pitches and do damage. And it worked really well. But over the last month, things have gotten pretty rough -- just a .634 OPS since June 25. And the BB rate, which was already really low, has basically cratered.

June 25: .287/.340/.520/.860, 5.7 BB%, 21.4 K%, .233 ISO, .332 BABIP, 48.6 HH%

Since June 25: .207/.232/.402, 3.2 BB%, 23.2 K%, .196 ISO, .227 BABIP, 44.3 HH%

One of the big changes seems to be that they're dialing back the fastballs (which he was crushing) and attacking him much more frequently with sliders (which he was, and is, struggling with). The fastball rate is down from 45% to 36% over the last month, and that drop has been offset entirely by the massive increase in sliders (from 28% to 37%). Over the last month, he's actually been thrown more sliders than fastballs.

By way of comparison, no player in baseball has seen 37% sliders over the course of the full season. Javier Baez, the reigning and defending irresponsible swing king, has seen 36.3% sliders this year, and no one else with 150+ PAs has been over 34.4%. Westy is well clear of even Baez over the last month. 

He's chasing more (from 34% up to 37%) and he's making contact a lot less (whiff rate up from 25% to 31%). That whiff rate over the last month is basically bottom 10th percentile. In what seems like "not a coincidence," he's also bottom 10th percentile in run value against sliders in that span.

 

In short, the league has made a major adjustment with Westy. They've clearly noted that his xWOBA against breaking stuff this year is .268, and they're just spamming sliders at him. The crazy (and promising) thing is that this wasn't an issue at all last year -- he was actually +4 runs against sliders/sweepers in his limited duty in 2023. So if he can make the appropriate adjustment and start spitting on the good sliders, I think there's a lot of reason to believe he gets back to who he's been prior to this funk.

Props to the well thought out and researched post.  This type of content is why I love the Hangout.

From watching his ABs, to me it seems that Westburg “up the middle” approach when hunting fastballs that works so well gets him stuck in between with the breaking balls.  He should be ripping those hangers down the LF line.  IIRC There was a HR earlier in the year where Westy pulled a high slider over Waltimore.  Maybe that approach is tougher at OP@CY due to LF dimensions so Westy will continue hunting fastballs at home and driving them to right center. 

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, Malike said:

 

#savegunnarsknees

[Say O!]

Westy just yanked a 2 strike slider for a double off Waltimore.  Nice to see. 

Edited July 29 by Say O!

[Say O!]

1 hour ago, Say O! said:

Westy just yanked a 2 strike slider for a double off Waltimore.  Nice to see. 

Make that TWO doubles on breaking balls today. (Must be reading the hangout heh heh)

[interloper]

Great to see 3 doubles from Westy today. 

[eddie83]

 

[Say O!]

3 hours ago, Say O! said:

Make that TWO doubles on breaking balls today. (Must be reading the hangout heh heh)

And now Westy tattooed a breaking ball for a HR to LCF!! 103mph EV and 409 feet.