Cade Povich 2024

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

I expected him to do that. He became tiring. I mean we all get that he loves himself some Povich, but his constant attacks on @Sports Guy when Rob even showed restraint (for Rob at least :D), was getting obnoxious. He's probably a former roommate or went to class with Povich or something. 

Remember when Parker Bridwell's mom came after you?  

She actually contacted me and told me someone else had been using her account.

Generally, I feel like there's been a recent uptick in people getting personal with other posters and being unnecessarily snarky about others' opinions.   I'm glad you drew a line here.   He obviously watched Povich's games closely (according to his posts, he's not related but is kind of a Nebraska Cornhusker insider who follows their prospects very closely and has sources in the program).   Occasionally he'd post some useful details about why the box score didn't fully reflect Povich's outing.   But the "Billy Boxscore" stuff was irritating, and he should have stopped when you told him to.   Instead he just doubled down on being a jerk.   

[Tony-OH]

By the way, did anyone notice Povich was taken as an underslot 3rd round pick ($500k), a pick after Mason Miller ($599k) was drafted by the A's in the 2021 draft. Not to beat this dead horse, but the Orioles selected John Rhodes 21 picks before Miller and gave him overslot at $1,375,000. Sometimes you win some (Gunnar/Westburg) and sometimes you lose some in those 2nd-3rd rounds. And yes, this is where @DrungoHazewood or @Frobby tells us that most players are misses in these rounds which is 100% correct. 

I'm just hoping seeing how some of these 3rd round pitchers have done well will help them select more in the higher rounds like they did in last draft. Also, I'm hoping with failures like Carter Young and Rhodes to a lesser extent, they realize guys that did not perform well in college the year before they get drafted may not have because they weren't that good. But that's a different subject than Povich so digress.

I've moved Povich up to the top pitching prospect in the system but Luis DeLeon is right on his heels.

 

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I expected him to do that. He became tiring. I mean we all get that he loves himself some Povich, but his constant attacks on @Sports Guy when Rob even showed restraint (for Rob at least :D), was getting obnoxious. He's probably a former roommate or went to class with Povich or something. 

Remember when Parker Bridwell's mom came after you?  

David Hernandez’s dad would come after me because I said I thought his son was a future reliever and wouldn’t be a ML starter.

He used to get into with me all the time when I would talk about that.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

By the way, did anyone notice Povich was taken as an underslot 3rd round pick ($500k), a pick after Mason Miller ($599k) was drafted by the A's in the 2021 draft. Not to beat this dead horse, but the Orioles selected John Rhodes 21 picks before Miller and gave him overslot at $1,375,000. Sometimes you win some (Gunnar/Westburg) and sometimes you lose some in those 2nd-3rd rounds. And yes, this is where @DrungoHazewood or @Frobby tells us that most players are misses in these rounds which is 100% correct. 

I'm just hoping seeing how some of these 3rd round pitchers have done well will help them select more in the higher rounds like they did in last draft. Also, I'm hoping with failures like Carter Young and Rhodes to a lesser extent, they realize guys that did not perform well in college the year before they get drafted may not have because they weren't that good. But that's a different subject than Povich so digress.

I've moved Povich up to the top pitching prospect in the system but Luis DeLeon is right on his heels.

 

Wow, that’s crazy. I didn’t see that before.

The thing I hope they take from that, besides what you mentioned, is just to stop overrating college OFers, especially left handed ones.

Whats odd is that they said the likes Povich a lot..which I guess tells you how much they liked Rhodes..for some reason.

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

David Hernandez’s dad would come after me because I said I thought his son was a future reliever and wouldn’t be a ML starter.

He used to get into with me all the time when I would talk about that.

I'm still friends with his Dad (Rick) on Facebook and we used to interact a lot. He was good guy overall, but yes, family members are too close to the situation for the most part. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

She actually contacted me and told me someone else had been using her account.

Generally, I feel like there's been a recent uptick in people getting personal with other posters and being unnecessarily snarky about others' opinions.   I'm glad you drew a line here.   He obviously watched Povich's games closely (according to his posts, he's not related but is kind of a Nebraska Cornhusker insider who follows their prospects very closely and has sources in the program).   Occasionally he'd post some useful details about why the box score didn't fully reflect Povich's outing.   But the "Billy Boxscore" stuff was irritating, and he should have stopped when you told him to.   Instead he just doubled down on being a jerk.   

The consistent thought that anything even remotely negative about Povich meant he should argue about it was over the top.

He genuinely thought the idea that throwing more strikes is needed was some kind of an insult and horrible point to make. I thought that was pretty obvious to everyone in baseball? Strikes are still a good thing, right?

[Frobby]

20 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

And yes, this is where @DrungoHazewood or @Frobby tells us that most players are misses in these rounds which is 100% correct. 

 

So far, only 3 2nd rounders and 3 3rd rounders from that draft have made the majors, and only three of those have positive WAR.   But, it's still early and I'm sure that several others will make the majors eventually.   I don't follow other team's prospects closely enough to guess who from that group has a good shot at the majors.  I'd certainly say that Rhodes is a long shot, but I guess it wouldn't shock me if he developed enough to get a cup of coffee some day.  He does have some pop and pretty good plate discipline.

Sorry for the digression.   Back to Povich, among pitchers with at least 5 starts, Povich leads the IL in ERA, is 3rd in WHIP, and is 3rd in K/9.  He's also 5th in innings pitched.

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So far, only 3 2nd rounders and 3 3rd rounders from that draft have made the majors, and only three of those have positive WAR.   But, it's still early and I'm sure that several others will make the majors eventually.   I don't follow other team's prospects closely enough to guess who from that group has a good shot at the majors.  I'd certainly say that Rhodes is a long shot, but I guess it wouldn't shock me if he developed enough to get a cup of coffee some day.  He does have some pop and pretty good plate discipline.

Sorry for the digression.   Back to Povich, among pitchers with at least 5 starts, Povich leads the IL in ERA, is 3rd in WHIP, and is 3rd in K/9.  He's also 5th in innings pitched.

Where’s his ranking for walks?  Curious how his walk rate is compared to the league average.  

[btdart20]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Where’s his ranking for walks?  Curious how his walk rate is compared to the league average.  

33rd out of 44 qualifiers.  2nd to some Skenes guy in K%-BB% though.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, btdart20 said:

33rd out of 44 qualifiers.  2nd to some Skenes guy in K%-BB% though.

Anyone keep track of the league average walk rate overall?

 

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Anyone keep track of the league average walk rate overall?

 

The IL is walking 4.7 per nine, which is kind of astronomical. Across the minors walks are over 4.0 per nine everywhere except the AA Southern League. That was the case last year, too. Was a little lower in '22. But if you go back to '19 everyone (except a couple rookie leagues) were under 4.0. Is this because of the auto ball/strike system? I think I haven't been paying close enough attention to know.

For comparison, the Majors have been over 4.0 walks per nine just twice and just barely, in 1949-50. And in the last 60-70 years have only been over 3.5 a very small handful of times.

So the International League sees more walks this year than any year in MLB history, and it's not close. They're walking 44% more batters than the Majors are in '24. It would be nice if some aspiring analyst went and looked to see if AAA pitchers walk rates fall upon promotion to the majors, and vice versa.

Edited May 9 by DrungoHazewood

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The IL is walking 4.7 per nine, which is kind of astronomical. Across the minors walks are over 4.0 per nine everywhere except the AA Southern League. That was the case last year, too. Was a little lower in '22. But if you go back to '19 everyone (except a couple rookie leagues) were under 4.0. Is this because of the auto ball/strike system? I think I haven't been paying close enough attention to know.

For comparison, the Majors have been over 4.0 walks per nine just twice and just barely, in 1949-50. And in the last 60-70 years have only been over 3.5 a very small handful of times.

So the International League sees more walks this year than any year in MLB history, and it's not close. They're walking 44% more batters than the Majors are in '24.

So what do we take from this w/r/t Povich?  He is at 3.9, so slightly better than league average but still high.

I would guess you still have to think he needs to improve on it but maybe improving on it can/will occur at the ML level, if he does indeed improve on it?

[DrungoHazewood]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

So what do we take from this w/r/t Povich?  He is at 3.9, so slightly better than league average but still high.

I would guess you still have to think he needs to improve on it but maybe improving on it can/will occur at the ML level, if he does indeed improve on it?

I don't really know. I'd have to do some research to see if walk rates track with the league rates. Maybe he gets called up and sees his free passes go down by 44%? All I really know is there are a lot of walks in the minors today.

[Aglets]

I blame Jackson Holliday.

24 BB in 20 games so far in AAA.  had 3 more today in game 21.   He is ruining the data set!

Edited May 9 by Aglets

[baltfan]

4 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

By the way, did anyone notice Povich was taken as an underslot 3rd round pick ($500k), a pick after Mason Miller ($599k) was drafted by the A's in the 2021 draft. Not to beat this dead horse, but the Orioles selected John Rhodes 21 picks before Miller and gave him overslot at $1,375,000. Sometimes you win some (Gunnar/Westburg) and sometimes you lose some in those 2nd-3rd rounds. And yes, this is where @DrungoHazewood or @Frobby tells us that most players are misses in these rounds which is 100% correct. 

I'm just hoping seeing how some of these 3rd round pitchers have done well will help them select more in the higher rounds like they did in last draft. Also, I'm hoping with failures like Carter Young and Rhodes to a lesser extent, they realize guys that did not perform well in college the year before they get drafted may not have because they weren't that good. But that's a different subject than Povich so digress.

I've moved Povich up to the top pitching prospect in the system but Luis DeLeon is right on his heels.

 

Further on this, I think they are going to learn that guys that start off hot in a big-time program and then year after year get worse likely aren’t fixable