Colton Cowser 2024

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s not the lie.  You said now people are saying Ortiz and Cowser are equals.  No one is saying that.  That’s a lie.

I mean I always liked Ortiz more than Cowser. I've been complaining about Cowser's untenable strikeout rate since he was in AA. 

[MCO'sFan]

5 minutes ago, interloper said:

I mean I always liked Ortiz more than Cowser. I've been complaining about Cowser's untenable strikeout rate since he was in AA. 

I did too. I just thought that he (Ortiz) was more redundant than Cowser. He probably still is if Holliday works out. 

[Tony-OH]

I had Cowser and Ortiz as similar prospects in last year's Top 75 even. Cowser got the nod for me over Ortiz by a hair. 

Rk	Name	POS	Current	Future	Ceiling	Risk	ETA
1	Jackson Holliday	SS	45	65	70	Low	2024
2	Samuel Basallo	C	35	65	75	High	2025
3	Coby Mayo	3B	45	60	70	Low	2024
4	Heston Kjerstad	OF	45	55	60	Low	2024
5	Colton Cowser	OF	45	50	55	Low	2024
6	Joey Ortiz	SS	45	50	55	Low	2024

[Moose Milligan]

I don't know if I've ever seen a prospect as polarizing as Cowser.  Where he ranked on a lot of national publications seemed to vary wildly.

I thought Tony ranking him 5th was fair and accurate behind the rest, though I felt that there was a decent delta between him and Ortiz and the bottom half of the top 10.  Ortiz has turned out to be a much better hitter (so far) than I ever thought he would be.

I get that Cowser strikes out a lot, has been terrible in clutch situations...all of that is fair and warranted critique.  But I can see where he could be a really good hitter.  He's got a lot of work to do but I'm really curious to see how he starts the 2025 season and what work he'll have done in the offseason.

[Big Mac]

52 minutes ago, interloper said:

I mean I always liked Ortiz more than Cowser. I've been complaining about Cowser's untenable strikeout rate since he was in AA. 

Would you describe Mayo's strikeout rate as "untenable"?

[Tony-OH]

I think Cowser's lack of clutchiness is really what makes him more polarizing. Those failures in high leverage situations have really put a mark on him for some, and that's understandable. 

I know in the Yankees game in the bottom of the 9th, I 100% would have wanted Mullins in that situation than Cowser. I do think Cowser is going to improve and that he's still going to be a good player at the major league level. 

Saying that, this year is about winning or at least getting to the World Series and I think there is room for both Cowser and Mullins on this team. Besides Mateo, who the team seems very reluctant to put in CF, there is no one else ready to play CF defensively on the team and no really good options in Norfolk either. Interestingly, with Stowers new found speed this year (80th percentile) they were playing him some in CF in Norfolk. 

[interloper]

11 minutes ago, Big Mac said:

Would you describe Mayo's strikeout rate as "untenable"?

I guess it's a fair question.

Mayo in AAA: 133 K's in 561 PA. 

Cowser in AAA: 145 K's in 523 PA.

So Mayo has had 12 less Ks in 38 more PA. Definitely better, but not overwhelmingly so. The difference, I think, is Mayo's overall better OPS in AAA based more on power than walks, though Cowser did have 17 home runs in AAA in 2023. But he would also go whole series where he'd K 3 to 4 times per game against sub-par AAA pitching. To my knowledge Mayo doesn't really have those stretches - he's pretty consistent. 

Overall Mayo looks like the more accomplished hitter to me. 

 

[Big Mac]

Just now, interloper said:

I guess it's a fair question.

Mayo in AAA: 133 K's in 561 PA. 

Cowser in AAA: 145 K's in 523 PA.

So Mayo has had 12 less Ks in 38 more PA. Definitely better, but not overwhelmingly so. The difference, I think, is Mayo's overall better OPS in AAA based more on power than walks, though Cowser did have 17 home runs in AAA in 2023. But he would also go whole series where he'd K 3 to 4 times per game against sub-par AAA pitching. To my knowledge Mayo doesn't really have those stretches - he's pretty consistent. 

Overall Mayo looks like the more accomplished hitter to me. 

 

I certainly agree with the bolded.  It was probably just nitpicky, when I think "untenable", I think of something like Jud Fabian's K rate at Bowie last year. 

[Sports Guy]

Nice to see him hit the homer tonight and he hit about 105MPH..of course he hit one 108 and that was an out. Would have been nice to get the second hit. 

[Say O!]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Nice to see him hit the homer tonight and he hit about 105MPH..of course he hit one 108 and that was an out. Would have been nice to get the second hit. 

HR on breaking ball too. Of course he whiffed later in the game on changeup (but so did Mullins and Mounty).

[ScGO's]

What's his chances at ROY,? Who is his competition? Langford? Gil?

[Say O!]

2 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

What's his chances at ROY,? Who is his competition? Langford? Gil?

Mason Miller still has rookie status IIRC.  I think he is odds on favorite at this point. 

[Hallas]

5 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

What's his chances at ROY,? Who is his competition? Langford? Gil?

Gil, Austin Wells, maybe Raffaela?

 

I kind of am unsure how much run he's going to get because he's leading AL position players in WAR but it's on the strength of his defense which has SSS concerns.

 

edit: forgot about Miller.

Edited July 20 by Hallas

[Malike]

2 minutes ago, Hallas said:

Gil, Austin Wells, maybe Raffaela?

 

I kind of am unsure how much run he's going to get because he's leading AL position players in WAR but it's on the strength of his defense which has SSS concerns.

 

edit: forgot about Miller.

Langford is the money favorite, followed closely by Gil. One site lists Cowsers best shot at +550, the other two +1,100, 1,200.

[Hallas]

2 minutes ago, Malike said:

Langford is the money favorite, followed closely by Gil. One site lists Cowsers best shot at +550, the other two +1,100, 1,200.

I think Langford's a bad choice personally - he's been just straight up worse as a hitter than Cowser, and I imagine he's only getting some run because he got hot recently and took his OPS out of the bottom of the ocean.