Sunday May 19: O's vs Mariners

[Malike]

Just now, fansince71 said:

What did i miss? Why are we talking about the owners wife in a game thread

No idea and I probably shouldn't have have bit and answered.

[baltfan]

Just now, fansince71 said:

What did i miss? Why are we talking about the owners wife in a game thread

They showed the owner throwing out hats again today just as he did the day before.  It was just a funny thought. Nothing more. 

[Philip]

8 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Oh now, bit snarky aren’t we?  

If I were married to a guy with $1 billion I’m going anywhere he wanted me to.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Philip said:

If I were married to a guy with $1 billion I’m going anywhere he wanted me to.

That's what I'd do if I were dating someone with a billion.

Once we are married.   Pfft, what are you going to do divorce me for not going to ball games?  I'll take my half interest in your team.

[CynBeth]

2 hours ago, Goober Noodles said:

That is my friend’ and her son. She texted me a picture of him with the sign before the game. I was out so did not get a chance to see it and she told me later he caught a foul ball.

[DenPA2002]

3 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Who wants to brag about grabbing Gunnar as home run champion of AL when odds were great.  I wish I had.

Like 100-1? 

[DrungoHazewood]

3 hours ago, Malike said:

There are many studies that suggest batting order has almost no impact on the game. You lead off once a game unless you are being no-hit. You can die on the hill you're standing on, the research is out there and it's up to you to trust it or not. I'm sure @DrungoHazewood would explain it more eloquently than I can.

I don't know about eloquently, but every study, every simulation I've ever seen says the difference between the most and least logical batting orders (given the same nine players) is maybe a couple dozen runs over a whole season. Literally, the difference between batting Mateo leadoff and Gunner 9th is maybe 1/10th of a run a game.

You'd be hard pressed to tease out the advantages of any reasonable lineup over any other.

[Fiver6565]

49 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I don't know about eloquently, but every study, every simulation I've ever seen says the difference between the most and least logical batting orders (given the same nine players) is maybe a couple dozen runs over a whole season. Literally, the difference between batting Mateo leadoff and Gunner 9th is maybe 1/10th of a run a game.

You'd be hard pressed to tease out the advantages of any reasonable lineup over any other.

It’s funny, because this is one of those things that I know to be statistically true, but it still seems impossible that it is. The idea of batting Mateo first and Gunnar ninth is 1000000% ludicrous in my head, but apparently is statistically insignificant. I have the hardest time balancing those ideas in my head. 

[DrungoHazewood]

23 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

It’s funny, because this is one of those things that I know to be statistically true, but it still seems impossible that it is. The idea of batting Mateo first and Gunnar ninth is 1000000% ludicrous in my head, but apparently is statistically insignificant. I have the hardest time balancing those ideas in my head. 

It's not intuitive, but every single piece of evidence points in that direction.

Think of it this way, a player leading off every game might get 700 PAs a year. Batting ninth they'd get something like 25% less, or 525. Over his career, per 700 PAs, Mateo creates 67 runs, Gunnar 107. If you give Gunnar 700 PAs and Mateo 525 the two of them create about 157 runs. Give Mateo 700 and Gunnar 525 and they create about 147. So 10 runs difference over 162 games, or 0.06 runs/game. And that's probably the most extreme lineup switch you can make, every other one for the O's would have less impact, and most of them (say, swapping the 3 and 5 hitters) almost zero. So in the end the difference between any two lineups Brandon Hyde is going to write down is too small to ever worry about.

Edited May 19 by DrungoHazewood

[Fiver6565]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

It's not intuitive, but every single piece of evidence points in that direction.

Think of it this way, a player leading off every game might get 700 PAs a year. Batting ninth they'd get something like 25% less, or 525. Over his career, per 700 PAs, Mateo creates 67 runs, Gunnar 107. If you give Gunnar 700 PAs and Mateo 525 the two of them create about 157 runs. Give Mateo 700 and Gunnar 525 and they create about 147. So 10 runs difference over 162 games, or 0.06 runs/game. And that's probably the most extreme lineup switch you can make, every other one for the O's would have less impact, and most of them (say, swapping the 3 and 5 hitters) almost zero. So in the end the difference between any two lineups Brandon Hyde is going to write down is too small to ever worry about.

Sure. The three and five thing really makes sense, both intuitively and statistically. It’s the intuitive side of 1 v 9 that I just can’t wrap my head around in spite of the well done stats you’ve provided as an example.  Probably because I’m thinking game by game and not season by season. The idea of Mateo batting 5 times tomorrow night, while one of the best hitters in the league bats 4, seems in my head like nonsense. 

[dystopia]

14 hours ago, CynBeth said:

That is my friend’ and her son. She texted me a picture of him with the sign before the game. I was out so did not get a chance to see it and she told me later he caught a foul ball.

Sounds like a great day at the Yard to me. I'm sure he won't forget that anytime soon.

[Goober Noodles]

19 hours ago, CynBeth said:

That is my friend’ and her son. She texted me a picture of him with the sign before the game. I was out so did not get a chance to see it and she told me later he caught a foul ball.

Awesome!  Thanks for sharing.  I love seeing all of the kids at the games these days.  You know they're going to grow up to be life-long O's fans with a team like this to root for when they're at that age.

[DrungoHazewood]

18 hours ago, Fiver6565 said:

Sure. The three and five thing really makes sense, both intuitively and statistically. It’s the intuitive side of 1 v 9 that I just can’t wrap my head around in spite of the well done stats you’ve provided as an example.  Probably because I’m thinking game by game and not season by season. The idea of Mateo batting 5 times tomorrow night, while one of the best hitters in the league bats 4, seems in my head like nonsense. 

It is nonsense, nobody would do it if given a choice. If someone told you that you have a choice between scoring 5.1 runs/game and 5.2 you'll always take 5.2. But in the end that 1/10th of a run per game isn't that big of a deal.

[Gurgi]

They let St. Louis score these two and its probably game over.  

Glad we wiggled out of that mess.

[Gurgi]

They should of made the Arch ACROSS the Mississippi and not just next to it.  

Hell the Saudi's would make it work.