The 2024 Trade Deadline

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Kjerstad might be on the table.  I don’t believe any of the top 3 are.  A legit bat?   That’s the last thing Elias would trade one of the top 3 guys on.  You could make an argument for a pitcher like Crochet, who can both make a difference in the playoffs and is controllable for two more years, but I don’t believe Elias will take that gamble.

I think we all agree that the relief upgrades are attainable without giving up top prospects.

I agree 100% that you can get relievers without your top prospects. The exception might be a closer. 
 

In regards to a bat, I could see Elias upgrading CF. I don’t know if Getz has learned from being unreasonable yet. But it would be a move that I’m all over if it was my decision. Kjerstad would be the main piece going the other way. Robert is controlled and Kjerstad isn’t particularly strong defensively in the OF. I think Santander can be retained for a reasonable contract if need be. This alignment sends you into the offseason with Cowser at me COF and Robert in CF. You’d have Norby, Stowers, and Billy Cook that could fill your 3-5 OF slots if Santander departs. Plus you’d also have the option of moving O’Hearn to RF

 

Edited June 17 by Roll Tide

[Rbiggs2525]

8 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

This is too long and nobody is going to read it.

But, what kind of hypothetical return (specific players) makes sense for our top 3 guys and the potential trade partner?

 

I think this is the real question. I’ll trade those guys but it would be for a real difference maker. Betts, Ohtani, Soto, Judge, Witt Jr, Harper. No seller has a guy with track record of success and degree of certainty. 

[Bemorewins]

13 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Irvin, Kremer, and maybe Povich are all capable of Game 3. You’re overstating what is necessary for postseason success. It doesn’t have to be a fool proof team. This offense is capable of carrying a league average #3 SP. 

Ok, so let's do it this way. Let's take the uniforms and team names off of the situation. Let's say it's not Orioles vs Yankees. But team A vs team B. 

Now in that scenario, you compare the pitching talent of Carlos Rodon vs the talent Irvin/Kremer/Povich, which would you favor objectively?

When you have an org with this much talent, my opinion is that we should be beyond being the underdog and relying on magical thinking that lesser talented players will outperform more talented ones. I know that we have been conditioned to that being the case for the last 30- 40 years. But it needn't not be that way anymore IMO.

[Bemorewins]

15 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

This is too long and nobody is going to read it.

But, what kind of hypothetical return (specific players) makes sense for our top 3 guys and the potential trade partner?

 

Feel free to ignore it and not respond.

[LGOrioles]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Kimbrel, Walker, Nardi, DC, Cano, Suarez, Webb, Perez pen would be very nice.

Walker is good but has there been much indication that SFG would trade him? He’s their best reliever and they are only 0.5 games back of a WC spot. Looks like he also has 5 years of control left too. 

[Rbiggs2525]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

Ok, so let's do it this way. Let's take the uniforms and team names off of the situation. Let's say it's not Orioles vs Yankees. But team A vs team B. 

Now in that scenario, you compare the pitching talent of Carlos Rodon vs the talent Irvin/Kremer/Povich, which would you favor objectively?

When you have an org with this much talent, my opinion is that we should be beyond being the underdog and relying on magical thinking that lesser talented players will outperform more talented ones. I know that we have been conditioned to that being the case for the last 30- 40 years. But it needn't not be that way anymore IMO.

Carlos Rodon expected ERA is over 4 and we already beat him around for 6 runs earlier in the season. The Yankees will have Cole and a bunch of guys over performing. Gil will more than likely be shut down or moved to pen.

[RZNJ]

15 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Honest question: In your opinion, how much better is Crochet than Fedde?

I will confess that I have not assessed both enough (side by side comparison) to know the answer to that question. I'm confident that our scouts do though.

I would say if they feel confident about getting equal production from either than you answer should be Fedde. But if you can objectively assess a discernible difference between the two and what you project for the rest of this season and going forward, I would say that the obvious answer should be Crocet.

Crochet can dominate.  Fedde can execute.   Fedde is going to cost less than Crochet.    Crochet is a better bet to dominate one game.   Fedde is a better bet to be healthy and strong in October.  If I wanted the best pitcher of the two on talent alone, it would be Crochet, hands down.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, LGOrioles said:

Walker is good but has there been much indication that SFG would trade him? He’s their best reliever and they are only 0.5 games back of a WC spot. Looks like he also has 5 years of control left too. 

I did forget that the crappy NL allows bad teams to stay in the race, so you might be right there.

 

[Roll Tide]

Quote

According to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, the Orioles are ‘on the lookout’ at the MLB trade deadline for a replacement to take over for the struggling Cedric Mullins. The All-Star center fielder has been unable to turn his season around, prompting Baltimore to begin exploring its options.

Jazz Chisholm Jr, Miami Marlins – An All-Star center fielder with the Miami Marlins, Jazz Chisholm Jr. is also under team control through 2026. Following a slow start to the 2024 season, Chisholm is slashing .277/.323/.480 with a .803 OPS, 6 home runs, 16 RBI and 18 runs scored in his last 38 games. He’d cost some top prospects, but not nearly as much as a Luis Robert trade would.

Kevin Pillar, Los Angeles Angels – If Baltimore doesn’t want to make a trade for a high-end outfielder who would unseat Cedric Mullins from his starting spot long-term, Kevin Pillar is an intriguing option. Since joining Los Angeles, Pillar owns a .984 OPS with a .340/.382/.602 slash line. He would be very cheap to acquire and could at least provide Baltimore with more depth in the outfield.

Harrison Bader, New York Mets – If Baltimore is willing to take the sacrifice offensively in center field, it’s hard to do better defensively than Harrison Bader. He ranks in the 93rd percentile for Outs Above Average and is in the 93rd percentile for Fielding Run Value. He isn’t great at the plate, but his .693 OPS is better than what Mullins has provided this year.

Luis Robert Jr, Chicago White Sox – We wanted to highlight some of the more realistic and more cost-friendly Orioles trade targets first. However, if a deal for Chisholm can’t be worked out, sacrificing top talent in the farm system for Luis Robert Jr. might be worth it. He is an All-Star talent with offensive skills that could be unlocked to an even greater extent with the surrounding talent in the Orioles lineup. Plus, he would be under team control through 2027.

 

https://sportsnaut.com/baltimore-orioles-rumors-trade-cedric-mullins-replacements/

Edited June 17 by Roll Tide

[RZNJ]

10 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I agree 100% that you can get relievers without your top prospects. The exception might be a closer. 
 

In regards to a bat, I could see Elias upgrading CF. I don’t know if Getz has learned from being unreasonable yet. But it would be a move that I’m all over if it was my decision. Kjerstad would be the main piece going the other way. Robert is controlled and Kjerstad isn’t particularly strong defensively in the OF. I think Santander can be retained for a reasonable contract if need be. This alignment sends you into the offseason with Cowser at me COF and Robert in CF. You’d have Norby, Stowers, and Billy Cook that could fill your 3-5 OF slots if Santander departs. Plus you’d also have the option of moving O’Hearn to RF

 

If Luis Roberts was an Oriole, hitting .186 with 31 strikeouts in 77 PA, you’d be telling me the Orioles need to trade for CF help.

[btdart20]

7 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Ok, so let's do it this way. Let's take the uniforms and team names off of the situation. Let's say it's not Orioles vs Yankees. But team A vs team B. 

Now in that scenario, you compare the pitching talent of Carlos Rodon vs the talent Irvin/Kremer/Povich, which would you favor objectively?

When you have an org with this much talent, my opinion is that we should be beyond being the underdog and relying on magical thinking that lesser talented players will outperform more talented ones. I know that we have been conditioned to that being the case for the last 30- 40 years. But it needn't not be that way anymore IMO.

Can we play the same game removing the names from the back of the jersey?  Is there really a difference between Rodon and Irvin over 2023-2024?

[Roll Tide]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

If Luis Roberts was an Oriole, hitting .186 with 31 strikeouts in 77 PA, you’d be telling me the Orioles need to trade for CF help.

He obviously needs to start hitting but as you mentioned he only has 77 ABs 

[Fiver6565]

I don’t understand all the talk of Crochet. It’s been made pretty clear that the guy probably won’t even be pitching post all star break due to innings limits post-TJ. If we trade for him it shouldn’t/wouldn’t be with the idea that he’ll help this year. Which means we won’t trade for him yet he’s constantly under discussion here. What am I missing?

[LGOrioles]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I did forget that the crappy NL allows bad teams to stay in the race, so you might be right there.

 

He’s definitely a good target if available though. 

[Bemorewins]

15 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

All I asked is for your opinion on whether you think Elias will trade any of the top three prospects.   Certainly you have an opinion.

I like Santander but he might be DH/1B material within the next two years.    If he finishes the year well I would offer the QA.   Signing outfielders who are slowing down and entering there 30’s so you can trade 19 and 22 yo prospects doesn’t seem like the answer.

I agree that we need bullpen help and another really good starter to feel good about a short series in the postseason.   Elias just won’t sell out to increase his chances for one year.  Again, I think Kjerstad might be on the table, especially if they envision Mayo in RF.

I don't think he has to nor should he "sell out". But the problem with continuous hedging is that better opportunities might not come.

What is to say that we don't have a rash of injuries next year or underperforming key players?

I would hate (as I assume you would) for us to become and "almost was" or a "never was" team, like the Blue Jays/White Sox/Padres. Teams with loads of talent and great farm system, who didn't win anything.

There are no guarantees that next year or any other future year is offers any better opportunity than this present season.