The 2024 Trade Deadline

[Just Regular]

It caught me a little surprise how low NL6 is running that today it looks like even the Washington Nationals have that spot.     13 of the 15 teams probably feel like they aren't much worse than the current league champions.     They all have season ticket holders to keep faith with.

Like Duquette in 2014, it is apparent at midyear that BAL's postseason berth is assured.    That frees up the GM to target playoff utility over regular season utility.    It is really just a question of will he pay the Eduardo-Andrew Miller price for a top talent or two.

Minnesota enjoying Royce Lewis' strong return has won 5 in a row and is 3 clear of Boston and more clear of everyone behind the Red Sox.

We will see in a month but buying GM's might end up with BOS, TBR, TOR, DET, TEX and HOU pitchers in the supply pool along with Fedde and Detmers.

[casadeozo]

34 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’d rather trade Kjerstad + for Robert if I’m dealing with the WS

The issue is all indications are the WS are delusional with his value just like Cease. 

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, emmett16 said:

Looking at the numbers objectively, Irvin & Suarez have out pitched Rodon.  If you are giving points for name recognition, then sure, Rodon would be a more popular choice.

Have you taken a few minutes to check out their statcast #s?  Suarez has objectively been the better pitcher.  

Rodon has had two bad/blow up starts (one against us and one on Sat night against the Red Sox) in his last ELEVEN. 9 of those 11 starts were quality starts. Of those 9 quality starts, he actually (himself) not the team, won 8 of those games.

I know it's 2024 and pitcher wins are discounted. But that is still uber impressive to me. To have 9 out of 11 games be quality starts is ace like IMO.

So yes I would rather have the guy with 9 out of 11 quality starts as opposed to the guy with ZERO, the guy with FOUR, and the guy (who albeit was hurt for some of that time) has THREE.

Rodon has more quality starts in that stretch than all 3 COMBINED. Of course, I know the counter argument could be that he has just been lucky and his peripherals aren't as good as he has pitched. For me, I would love for our guys to get that "lucky" consistently.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Rodon has had two bad/blow up starts (one against us and one on Sat night against the Red Sox) in his last ELEVEN. 9 of those 11 starts were quality starts. Of those 9 quality starts, he actually (himself) not the team, won 8 of those games.

I know it's 2024 and pitcher wins are discounted. But that is still uber impressive to me. To have 9 out of 11 games be quality starts is ace like IMO.

So yes I would rather have the guy with 9 out of 11 quality starts as opposed to the guy with ZERO, the guy with FOUR, and the guy (who albeit was hurt for some of that time) has THREE.

Rodon has more quality starts in that stretch than all 3 COMBINED. Of course, I know the counter argument could be that he has just been lucky and his peripherals aren't as good as he has pitched. For me, I would love for our guys to get that "lucky" consistently.

You think 3 ER in 6 IP in a lower offense environment is “impressive”?

[RZNJ]

51 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’d rather trade Kjerstad + for Robert if I’m dealing with the WS

Afraid of Crochet breaking down?  No problem, we’ll go with dependable Luis Robert Jr. who, while powerful and fast, will wave at any outside breaking ball like it’s the incarnation of Marilyn Monroe walking down the street.

[btdart20]

50 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Detmers

If we're talking with LAA, then we should kick the tires on Jo Adell at the RHH compliment at CF.  2024 top line stats are bad, but most of the improhavebeen vs LHP.  

[OriolesMagic83]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You think 3 ER in 6 IP in a lower offense environment is “impressive”?

Against the Phillies, yes.  Against the White Sox, no.

[Bemorewins]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You think 3 ER in 6 IP in a lower offense environment is “impressive”?

I have to go back and look. But I think he only did that once during those 9 starts. And I think he only gave up like 3 hits and 1BB in that start, so it's not like he was getting killed.

But I'm not going to continue going on about Rodon. Because I genuinely don't care what he does. I just want our guys to win and beat him when we play.

[Greg Pappas]

One interesting aspect of valuing a target is how well they are performing this season in comparison to prior seasons.  Are they notably better thus far this season, or notably worse?  Kyle Finnegan, the Nats closer is an example of a pitcher that is having a career year as their closer.  One may be buying high if the Nats were agreeable to trade him (I understand they are in the wild card race, but to illustrate a point, let's ignore that.)  There are other examples, but I'd be curious to know how GM's look at it.  I would expect a regression for Finnegan, unless there were something new in his arsenal that led to the uptick.  There is so much to weigh.

Jesus Luzardo (26) is having a down year after two very good seasons in Miami. In 2022 he had a 3.32 ERA & 3.12 FIP.  In 2023 he had a 3.58 ERA & 3.55 FIP.  This season he has a 5.00 ERA & 4.25 FIP.  Might Luzardo be a bow low candidate? 

Naturally there can be various factors for doing better or worse than prior seasons, but it must make for some interesting discussions between these teams.

[Malike]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Afraid of Crochet breaking down?  No problem, we’ll go with dependable Luis Robert Jr. who, while powerful and fast, will wave at any outside breaking ball like it’s the incarnation of Marilyn Monroe walking down the street.

I'd love Crochet, but looking at it realistically he pitched 54 innings in 2021, missed 2022 and most of 2023 with TJS and then got shelved after 12 IP last year with a shoulder issue. If you want to leverage your investment, you do the responsible thing and manage his arm appropriately, he's never started before this season, either. Crochet would likely be an investment for the next two years more so than leading a rotation into October in 2024.

The CWS are monitoring him, keeping him on 5 days rest, etc, and have said multiple times they don't know when he's going to hit the wall this year but they are preparing for it. You can't just pencil him for 200 IP this year without substantial risk.

I have no interest in Robert Jr. due to injury concerns that happen far too often with him.

[Greg Pappas]

Bowden earlier today behind TheAthletic paywall:

Quote

Orioles acquire RHP Luis Severino from Mets for RHP Trace Bright and OF Jud Fabian
Kyle Bradish is back on the IL with a UCL sprain, and that should make the Orioles pivot from the bullpen to the rotation as their top trade priority. Luis Severino is a perfect fit based on his past experience in the AL East with the Yankees. Severino is having a solid comeback season with the Mets, going 4-2 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.179 WHIP in 13 starts. He will be a free agent after this season and should do well on the open market if he maintains this level.

In return, the Mets would acquire Trace Bright, a fifth-round pick in 2022 out of Auburn who is one of the Orioles’ top pitching prospects. He has a 3.91 ERA with 62 strikeouts in 53 innings this season with Double-A Bowie, but has work to do with his delivery, command and control (1.472 WHIP). In addition, the Mets would get outfielder Jud Fabian, who has slashed .241/.316/.462 with 12 home runs and 29 RBIs in 199 at-bats in Double A. He is expendable because of the plethora of outfield prospects the Orioles rate above him.

This has nothing directly to do with us, but I found it... interesting:

Quote

Dodgers acquire CF Luis Robert Jr., LHP Garrett Crochet and RHP Michael Kopech from White Sox for RHP Nick Frasso, LHP Justin Wrobleski, RHP Kyle Hurt, RHP Payton Martin, C Dalton Rushing, OF Andy Pages and SS Emil Morales

Could the Dodgers and White Sox find a trade match on a deal involving Luis Robert Jr.? (Steven Bisig / USA Today)
This would be an industry shocker — a 10-player trade! — that would put the Dodgers in a much better position to run the table in the postseason and would jump-start the White Sox’s rebuild. The Dodgers have a loaded farm system and the major-league roster to win it all now, so why not finish the job with one mammoth blockbuster deal? Luis Robert Jr. improves their defense in center field and adds length to the bottom half of the lineup. Garrett Crochet fits into the top of the rotation behind Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto once the latter returns from the injured list. Michael Kopech gives them another power arm option for the back of their bullpen. Robert is under team control through 2027, Crochet is under control through 2026 and Kopech is under control through 2025.

The White Sox would get a haul of seven solid to good prospects in return, putting them on track for a much faster rebuild. Andy Pages could replace Robert in the outfield immediately. Dalton Rushing would become their future starting catcher. Nick Frasso, Kyle Hurt, Justin Wrobleski and Payton Martin would make their future outlook on the mound much brighter and come with many years of team control. And the final piece of this deal, Emil Morales, 17, would give the White Sox a high-risk, high-reward defensive wiz at shortstop down the road, if he develops as a hitter.

 

Edited June 17 by Greg Pappas

[Malike]

1 minute ago, Greg Pappas said:

One interesting aspect of valuing a target is how well they are performing this season in comparison to prior seasons.  Are they notably better thus far this season, or notably worse?  Kyle Finnegan, the Nats closer is an example of a pitcher that is having a career year as their closer.  One may be buying high if the Nats were agreeable to trade him (I understand they are in the wild card race, but to illustrate a point, let's ignore that.)  There are other examples, but I'd be curious to know how GM's look at it.  I would expect a regression for Finnegan, unless there were something new in his arsenal that led to the uptick.  There is so much to weigh.

Jesus Luzardo (26) is having a down year after two very good seasons in Miami. In 2022 he had a 3.32 ERA & 3.12 FIP.  In 2023 he had a 3.58 ERA & 3.55 FIP.  This season he has a 5.00 ERA & 4.25 FIP.  Might Luzardo be a bow low candidate? 

Naturally there can be various factors for doing better or worse than prior seasons, but it must make for some interesting discussions between these teams.

I heard on the radio that Luzardo's fastball was down 3MPH last night and he stated after the game that his back was bothering him. The way he's performed and the injury risk, concern me.

[interloper]

10 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Afraid of Crochet breaking down?  No problem, we’ll go with dependable Luis Robert Jr. who, while powerful and fast, will wave at any outside breaking ball like it’s the incarnation of Marilyn Monroe walking down the street.

I think it's pretty wild that anyone would want Robert Jr. at this deadline, for any team. Mullins is also batting in the .180s, is worth the same exact rWAR, and doesn't cost a top prospect. What are we even talking about here? 

[Greg Pappas]

1 minute ago, Malike said:

I heard on the radio that Luzardo's fastball was down 3MPH last night and he stated after the game that his back was bothering him. The way he's performed and the injury risk, concern me.

Wow... hadn't seen that.  Thanks.  I agree, too risky.

[Aristotelian]

Some budget options:

Tyler Anderson (LAA, 2026 FA):

• 2.58 ERA
• 1.53 K/BB
• 4.69 FIP
• 99 offspeed run value
• 83 %ile average exit velo
• 2 %ile FB velo

Eric Fedde (CHW, 2025 FA)

• 3.09 ERA
• 3.61 K/BB
• 3.45 FIP
• 82 P run value
• 71 %ile exit velo
• 75 %ile GB