The 2024 Trade Deadline

[Allan Bryant]

8 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

Just to put Colorado Rockies player's stats into perspective... 

Thus, pitchers are 15% worse there than league average.  The 2nd rated park factor is Fenway, 8% lower at 106. 

It is for this reason mainly, I think they should check on his availability for trade here .  Despite hearing about weird Rockies FO , it can’t hurt to ask. Cal Quantril is better than Suárez, Irvin & Kremer as our # three starter. JMO 

[Allan Bryant]

8 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

What is the thought in Chicago right now?  Cubs going to be sellers?

As of this morning, they’re 4 games behind for third WC spot with six teams in front of them. The question is…..what is their last straw ?

[Roll Tide]

19 hours ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

He's a 30 year old UIF with a sub-100 OPS+ since opening day last year who is already in his arbitration years. Why would a rebuilding team trade anything of value that they have to market to contenders for that instead of prospects?

Dumping a high salary relief pitcher is a reason.

[RZNJ]

5 hours ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

Pittsburgh needs to score some runs. Since it’s been the good Mitch Keller lately how about a block buster. Keller and Bednar for Mountcastle, Stowers, Norby and McDermott. Add a DSL or FCL player if needed. Pittsburgh gets 3 guys to plug in there offense today.

The Pirates are 2-3 games out of a playoff spot.   If they are going for it they’re not trading Bednar and Keller.  If they’re not going for it they don’t trade those guys for a package that includes Mountcastle.

[dystopia]

13 hours ago, Warehouse said:

Below is the average rest-of-season FIP projection from Steamer, ZIPS, ATC, and The Bat:

Player	Avg
Garrett Crochet	3.25
Zach Eflin	3.57
Alex Cobb	3.61
Jack Flaherty	3.74
David Peterson	3.82
Braxton Garrett	3.88
Jesus Luzardo	3.95
Lance McCullers Jr	3.96
Nathan Eovaldi	3.96
Max Scherzer	3.98
Yusei Kikuchi	4.00
Chris Bassitt	4.01
Jordan Montgomery	4.01
Jon Gray	4.03
Sean Manaea	4.05
Reid Detmers	4.18
Paul Blackburn	4.23
Edward Cabrera	4.24
Jose Quintana	4.30
Erick Fedde	4.32
Luis Severino	4.33
Justin Verlander	4.33
Ross Stripling	4.33
Lance Lynn	4.35
Kyle Gibson	4.38
Miles Mikolas	4.38
Andrew Heaney	4.39
Frankie Montas	4.41
Ryan Weathers	4.47
Michael Lorenzen	4.67
Yonny Chirinos	4.69
Trevor Williams	4.71
Tyler Anderson	4.78
Rich Hill	4.84
Cal Quantrill	4.95

What is the purpose of "projecting" a stat that is supposed to be a predictive stat only? I can think of nothing more useless.

[Rbiggs2525]

17 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

The Pirates are 2-3 games out of a playoff spot.   If they are going for it they’re not trading Bednar and Keller.  If they’re not going for it they don’t trade those guys for a package that includes Mountcastle.

There offense is horrible. Mountcastle would go in as best hitter on the team and Stowers, Norby starters. I am not saying for them to tank but they need hitting.

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

There offense is horrible. Mountcastle would go in as best hitter on the team and Stowers, Norby starters. I am not saying for them to tank but they need hitting.

So, if your the Pirates you think trading your #1 or #2 starter and your closer for those 3 makes you a better team for the rest of THIS season?

[Roll Tide]

6 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

There offense is horrible. Mountcastle would go in as best hitter on the team and Stowers, Norby starters. I am not saying for them to tank but they need hitting.

I worry about Keller ….pitching well then goes to a new team and pitches at the 4 ERA he was last season. 

[Roll Tide]

10 minutes ago, dystopia said:

What is the purpose of "projecting" a stat that is supposed to be a predictive stat only? I can think of nothing more useless.

Right …would anybody be for us picking up Flaherty again? I know I wouldn’t 

[OriolesMagic83]

8 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

There offense is horrible. Mountcastle would go in as best hitter on the team and Stowers, Norby starters. I am not saying for them to tank but they need hitting.

Pittsburgh signed Keller thru 2028.  As much as I would like to trade for him, I think they plan to build their rotation around Keller and Skenes.  Keller is a #2/3 with ace upside.  If their GM would think to move him, they would no doubt want a package starting w/ Mayo/Basallo or Holliday, fair or unfair. 

[Warehouse]

17 minutes ago, dystopia said:

What is the purpose of "projecting" a stat that is supposed to be a predictive stat only? I can think of nothing more useless.

Because I believe how it works is they project FIP and then adjust based on team defense and park factors to project ERA. Since we’re talking about a trade, the context-specific elements of defense and park factors are less relevant.

The projections have been shown to be more highly correlated with future performance than ERA or ERA estimators such as FIP.

 

[Sports Guy]

I tend to doubt Pitt trades Keller but I think Bednar could be on the board. He hasn’t even the lights out guy so far that he has been in the past. Mountcastle and other make them a better offense and perhaps team right now.

[dystopia]

59 minutes ago, Warehouse said:

Because I believe how it works is they project FIP and then adjust based on team defense and park factors to project ERA. Since we’re talking about a trade, the context-specific elements of defense and park factors are less relevant.

The projections have been shown to be more highly correlated with future performance than ERA or ERA estimators such as FIP.

 

Mental masturbation for nerds… that’s all this will ever be. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

51 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I tend to doubt Pitt trades Keller but I think Bednar could be on the board. He hasn’t even the lights out guy so far that he has been in the past. Mountcastle and other make them a better offense and perhaps team right now.

Reading between the lines, one way of “figuring out ways to work him in” is by trading Urias or Mountcastle. It sounds like Elias is with everyone else wanting Mayo on the big league club ASAP. I think he’s probably working the phones trying to find an early deal ahead of the deadline to accommodate calling Mayo up. 

IMO I’d rather trade Urias than Mountcastle, but it’s hard finding a trade partner. The Royals have a pretty bad 2B/3B situation, that may be the best fit? Even if you’re only getting minor league players back for Urias it’s probably worth it to bring Mayo up, so long as it’s decent enough value for Urias. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Reading between the lines, one way of “figuring out ways to work him in” is by trading Urias or Mountcastle. It sounds like Elias is with everyone else wanting Mayo on the big league club ASAP. I think he’s probably working the phones trying to find an early deal ahead of the deadline to accommodate calling Mayo up. 

IMO I’d rather trade Urias than Mountcastle, but it’s hard finding a trade partner. The Royals have a pretty bad 2B/3B situation, that may be the best fit? Even if you’re only getting minor league players back for Urias it’s probably worth it to bring Mayo up, so long as it’s decent enough value for Urias. 

Urias going helps now but when Holliday is ready to come back up, someone else needs to go anyway. 
 

But I hope you are right.  A deal now makes sense for so many reasons but the other side has to play ball too.

The Rangers got Chapman “early” last year, so hopefully Elias is able to pull off something similar.