The 2024 Trade Deadline

[CaptainRedbeard]

There’s a lot of SP who COULD be moved at the trade deadline. But who are the locks to get traded?

I think it’s only Flaherty, Kikuchi and Fedde, and probably Crochet. And the Rays are likely to deal one of Eflin or Littell. If the Rangers are sellers, that adds Scherzer and Heaney, but that’s TBD.

Anybody else?

I think this is the main reason we could see some more off-season-type trades with players with more years of control than your typical 0.5 rental & 1.5 year types. Plus the phenomenon being talked about more of teams not being inclined to trade during the off-season when there are free agent alternatives. Hoping teams get more creative this year, like MIA and LAA with their SPs with more control.

 

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

There’s a lot of SP who COULD be moved at the trade deadline. But who are the locks to get traded?

I think it’s only Flaherty, Kikuchi and Fedde, and probably Crochet. And the Rays are likely to deal one of Eflin or Littell. If the Rangers are sellers, that adds Scherzer and Heaney, but that’s TBD.

Anybody else?

I think this is the main reason we could see some more off-season-type trades with players with more years of control than your typical 0.5 rental & 1.5 year types. Plus the phenomenon being talked about more of teams not being inclined to trade during the off-season when there are free agent alternatives. Hoping teams get more creative this year, like MIA and LAA with their SPs with more control.

 

Quantrill.

[CaptainRedbeard]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Quantrill.

Right. I’ve ignored him because he’s not very good and he has an extra year, and the Rockies are really weird about never trading guys even when it’s clear they should. Hopefully they wise up and that helps expand the supply side of the SP market.

[Sports Guy]

This is from Bowdens latest column.  I don’t buy this being true but if so, that would be tremendous:

AL East

Baltimore Orioles

The season-ending injuries to Kyle Bradish and John Means have the Orioles in the starting pitching market, but they don’t intend to trade any of their top prospects. They didn’t do so to acquire Corbin Burnes earlier this year, and they don’t see a reason to now. The quality and depth of their farm system are as good as any organization in baseball, and they have enough talent to land any available starter they want without giving up their top-three or -four prospects. The Orioles have been linked in trade talks with the White Sox, Blue Jays and Rockies on their available starting pitchers.

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

This is from Bowdens latest column.  I don’t buy this being true but if so, that would be tremendous:

AL East

Baltimore Orioles

The season-ending injuries to Kyle Bradish and John Means have the Orioles in the starting pitching market, but they don’t intend to trade any of their top prospects. They didn’t do so to acquire Corbin Burnes earlier this year, and they don’t see a reason to now. The quality and depth of their farm system are as good as any organization in baseball, and they have enough talent to land any available starter they want without giving up their top-three or -four prospects. The Orioles have been linked in trade talks with the White Sox, Blue Jays and Rockies on their available starting pitchers.

This part is true.

”but they don’t intend to trade any of their top prospects “

This part is false.

”and they have enough talent to land any available starter they want without giving up their top-three or -four prospects.”

[Orioles0615]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

land any available starter they want without giving up their top-three or -four prospects

I don't buy this. Not ANY starter, they couldn't get Crochet that way or if Skubal became available. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Orioles0615 said:

I don't buy this. Not ANY starter, they couldn't get Crochet that way or if Skubal became available. 

Yea that’s where I think it’s bs.

That said, you never know how teams view the rest of our guys and you do wonder if the Os rep of drafting and developing makes our prospects “worth more”. 

[CTBear]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

This is from Bowdens latest column.  I don’t buy this being true but if so, that would be tremendous:

AL East

Baltimore Orioles

The season-ending injuries to Kyle Bradish and John Means have the Orioles in the starting pitching market, but they don’t intend to trade any of their top prospects. They didn’t do so to acquire Corbin Burnes earlier this year, and they don’t see a reason to now. The quality and depth of their farm system are as good as any organization in baseball, and they have enough talent to land any available starter they want without giving up their top-three or -four prospects. The Orioles have been linked in trade talks with the White Sox, Blue Jays and Rockies on their available starting pitchers.

I’m still so annoyed anytime Bradish and Means’ injuries get mentioned as a reason for needing SPs. We’ve known since before Spring Training those dudes weren’t making it a full season. The amount of advanced imaging and tests done on these players, they knew we couldn’t count on them this year and still didn’t bolster the rotation. I think Wells was a surprise and the ownership change may have interfered a bit but I just don’t want Bradish and Means being an excuse for why our rotation is so suddenly depleted. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

This part is false.

”and they have enough talent to land any available starter they want without giving up their top-three or -four prospects.”

There’s a big difference between the top 3 and the top 4! Kjerstad is definitely good enough to land anybody available (if you don’t count Skubal), likely including Crochet (but it would have to be Kjerstad +). 

Way too imprecise of a statement for it to really mean anything.

[CaptainRedbeard]

25 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The Orioles have been linked in trade talks with the White Sox, Blue Jays and Rockies on their available starting pitchers.

This is the most interesting part. Glad to see the Jays included, but that makes the Rays conspicuously absent. The Orioles need Kikuchi and Eflin to be options, given I’m not bullish on lining up with the CWS after they failed to do so on Cease when the Orioles were the clear top suitor. Kikuchi seems most likely, since he’s a 0.5 rental and the Jays don’t have to worry about an in-division trade impacting their contending next year. That may be more of a hurdle for the Rays with Elfin having 1.5 years - not enough for the Rays to close the door to it, but maybe the tiebreaker to steer them to another team.

The Tigers with Flaherty are also absent, but that’s not surprising. 

The Rockies feels like they are just casting a wide net for all of the clear SP sellers to try to line up fallback options. I really don’t see how they’d have much interest in Quantrill or anybody else, they’re not really better than the current options, but maybe that’s the backup plan purely for depth reasons if they can’t land anybody else. 

[Just Regular]

I think the Marlins will move someone.     Max Meyer is nearly done his rehab.    Edward Cabrera and Trevor Rogers throw their last 2 games before the break.

Extrapolating from the Kiermaier report yesterday, other Blue Jays walk year guys look like:

Justin Turner, Yusei Kikuchi, Yimi Garcia, Danny Jansen and Trevor Richards

Richards is kind of their Keegan Akin type guy who is also having a good year.

Where does Kikuchi fall on the Anthony Santander qualifying offer scale?    That might make his return a few ticks nicer than Flaherty last year.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

I think the Marlins will move someone.     Max Meyer is nearly done his rehab.    Edward Cabrera and Trevor Rogers throw their last 2 games before the break.

Extrapolating from the Kiermaier report yesterday, other Blue Jays walk year guys look like:

Justin Turner, Yusei Kikuchi, Yimi Garcia, Danny Jansen and Trevor Richards

Richards is kind of their Keegan Akin type guy who is also having a good year.

Where does Kikuchi fall on the Anthony Santander qualifying offer scale?    That might make his return a few ticks nicer than Flaherty last year.

Can you make a QO to someone you acquired mid season?

[Rbiggs2525]

11 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Can you make a QO to someone you acquired mid season?

Pretty sure they have to be on the same team full season.

[Just Regular]

10 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Can you make a QO to someone you acquired mid season?

Mike Elias can't, but Ross Atkins could and might want value for that Elias won't want to give.    Kikuchi is probably Santander-adjacent as a maybe.

Kikuchi's financial advisor is probably hoping for a trade to get free of the drag, which for a guy like him or Santander might put a dent in the ~$50-$60M they may be hoping to get.

[casadeozo]

Really detailed and researched article from Finkelstein on the O’s trade deadline outlook. A great alternative to all the sameness from everything else out there 

not sure how realistic that Mason Miller return is, but I heard him discussing this on a podcast and using Miller as a fireman role 7th or 8th inning guy like Andrew Miller was for the Indians in 2016. Sign me up!

also trading Mullins is an interesting thought experiment

https://www.justbaseball.com/mlb/3-trades-that-would-put-the-orioles-over-the-top-to-win-it-all/

Edited July 12 by casadeozo