The 2024 Trade Deadline

[gamiliel]

41 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Soto and Cole are going to be Free Agents after this year.  The Yankees are kind of pot committed to go for it this season.

The Sawx have 3 prospects in the top 25 and are only 4.5 GB.  Are they going to be passive this deadline?

We might have to trade 2 of the big 3 just to keep up.  Elias got lucky last year that he was in a division race with the Rays.  This year is going to be pricey.  

IF Cole stays healthy he should opt out, you would think. All we need to win the division is an innings eating starter (should not cost much prospect wise) and a good reliever. Those moves keep us atop the division. Now if we want to ensure playoff success, then we must shoot higher. But without giving up much we can win the division IMO.

[HowAboutThat]

23 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

MacFarland was the better pitcher that year than Strop.  Heck, he was better than Arrieta that season.  Results matter and we were winning.  MacFarland is still pitching in year 12.  He'll likely get dealt for a prospect.  

We can criticize the Arrieta/Strop deal, but MacFarland isn't the one to pick on.  Arrieta had plenty of chances here.  We need a SP.  We were competing.  He went to a non competitive team that could deal with more growing pains.  

I’ve always been a TJ fan. He did quite well with Az, but we gave WAY too much for Scott Feldman. That must rank as one of our all time worst trades. 
I have toyed with the idea of bringing back TJ, which we could do very cheaply, but I don’t think we will. He’s like Keegan Akin, but older.

Yimi Garcia, Kirby Yates, maybe. Some others slip my mind ATM.

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Yeah, Feldman only cost us Arrieta and Strop.  Not much, considering we also got back Steve Clevenger.  

 

[HowAboutThat]

24 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Pillar is tearing up lefties this year.

His sprint speed is still high and he had a good arm. OAA has him -1. uZR/UZR150 have him just over 0.

Basically, he’s around league average defensively.

Would prefer better but that’s good enough.  He makes sense and will cost very little.

Yes, he’d cost little, but who would he replace? He’s always been one of my favorite enemies, but do we need another light hitting aging speedster? His defense has slipped, and his offense is in dead cat bounce territory.

[foxfield]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

I appreciate you taking the time to respond and share your opinion.

But I disagree fundamentally with just about everything you said.

“Recent history”?? The Joe Saunders and Scott Feldman additions were over a decade ago! Frankly, I don’t want to repeat many things in terms of planning and execution from the 2012- 2018 era. Much of that success seemed so accidental, temporary, and unsustainable because there was no long term vision. Our moves were largely driven by Peter Angelos and Buck Showalter’s desire to get that one championship before time was up for both of them (probably Dan Duquette as well).

This era has been extremely well planned, orchestrated, and executed. Look at the difference in the young talent we have now vs back then.

We have amassed an amazing amount of organizational assets and done a tremendous job of drafting and developing. I argue that we have dynasty level assets.

To me, it makes little to no sense to continue to punt the present opportunities away by repeatedly making marginal moves (like last year), with potential World Series trophies at stake. IMO now is not the time to hedge, but to be begin to be bold. Gunnar, Adley, Westburg etc are too good to waste these years away being ultra cheap/conservative with pitching acquisitions.

Opportunities must be ceased in the lifetime of the opportunity.

I think your points are completely valid.  What Dan and Buck did before sold out the future for a small window.  

I also agree that your assessment of the talent and organizational assets that have been drafted and developed are top level.  And your argument that we have dynasty level assets is also spot on.

And like many you argue that assets can and should be spent to improve pitching and the chances for success in the playoffs.

The crux of the matter is that in your many posts you advocate "difference makers" as being the only thing that makes sense.  You seem to grasp that while the Orioles would love to acquire difference makers, they must be at a reasonable cost.

I think the challenge for Elias is finding an acceptable cost, to him, that still allows for that dynasty.  One wonders if the type of dynasty that the Braves had years ago that was full of success, even domination...and yet only yielded one World Series title, would be acceptable here.

I would offer that I would be disappointed in that but would certainly prefer it to the last four decades of mostly futility.

I do not think it is fair to be so absolute in your disparaging comments to punting opportunities.  The Orioles certainly did not punt last year.  But it is also fair to say they did not go "all in".  And while their pitching acquisitions did not move the dial, the Orioles exited the playoffs quickly because their #1 and #2 pitchers showed up like difference maker Clayton Kershaw in the playoffs.  The Orioles also lost because their offense did not perform to the same level.  And mostly the Orioles lost because they did not play together.  Even when the Orioles did score, they simply couldn't stop giving up runs.  But none of that means they punted.  But it also doesn't mean that the could not have done more.  And it all could have been different if say Jack Flaherty pitched like he has this year.

We all want success.  And yes having opportunities should not be wasted.  We need some help and we have ownership and a front office that has access to tools that are needed.  I think they deserve the chance to do this without being so absolute.  

I am hopeful that we get bullpen help and starting pitching help.  And I am not totally against a major top shelf acquisition.  I just do not think it is the only way to maximize this opportunity or the future.   But whatever they do, whether it is enough will depend more on how everyone else that is here performs.  Not just down the stretch but during the playoffs.  

If we see what we have mostly seen for the last year and a half, I feel pretty optimistic.  If we see what we have seen for the last couple of weeks, both offensively and with pitching, then a Skubal or Miller isn't going to have mattered.  I think you sell the entire organization a little short, but I completely agree that the drive to be better, or to have better talent both for today and tomorrow should always be front of mind.  One thing is for certain, I do appreciate being in a position where anything short of a title is a miss.

[RZNJ]

22 minutes ago, gamiliel said:

IF Cole stays healthy he should opt out, you would think. All we need to win the division is an innings eating starter (should not cost much prospect wise) and a good reliever. Those moves keep us atop the division. Now if we want to ensure playoff success, then we must shoot higher. But without giving up much we can win the division IMO.

Cole's contract includes an opt out after the 2024 season, and the Yankees can void that opt out by picking up a one-year club option worth $36 million. Essentially, Cole can force the Yankees to add an extra year to his contract, making it a 10-year deal worth $360 million, thus reclaiming the record from Yamamoto.Feb 20, 2024

https://www.cbssports.com › news

 

How

[Malike]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Could be worth the cost if you think he’s a starter long term but he’s so risky. 

He's definitely got starter stuff and would be effective but the risk of injury with him is high, that's a tough trade to make for the cost but he's a legit talent.

[Allan Bryant]

2 hours ago, Matt Bennett said:

In the form of multiple, substantial multi-year free agency additions starting after the 2022 season

Also....again....not knocking the trade. I'm not sure where you read that. Burnes is awesome. 

Unfortunately Rubenstein wasn’t our owner after the 2022 season, sorry  

[Bemorewins]

23 minutes ago, foxfield said:

I think your points are completely valid.  What Dan and Buck did before sold out the future for a small window.  

I also agree that your assessment of the talent and organizational assets that have been drafted and developed are top level.  And your argument that we have dynasty level assets is also spot on.

And like many you argue that assets can and should be spent to improve pitching and the chances for success in the playoffs.

The crux of the matter is that in your many posts you advocate "difference makers" as being the only thing that makes sense.  You seem to grasp that while the Orioles would love to acquire difference makers, they must be at a reasonable cost.

I think the challenge for Elias is finding an acceptable cost, to him, that still allows for that dynasty.  One wonders if the type of dynasty that the Braves had years ago that was full of success, even domination...and yet only yielded one World Series title, would be acceptable here.

I would offer that I would be disappointed in that but would certainly prefer it to the last four decades of mostly futility.

I do not think it is fair to be so absolute in your disparaging comments to punting opportunities.  The Orioles certainly did not punt last year.  But it is also fair to say they did not go "all in".  And while their pitching acquisitions did not move the dial, the Orioles exited the playoffs quickly because their #1 and #2 pitchers showed up like difference maker Clayton Kershaw in the playoffs.  The Orioles also lost because their offense did not perform to the same level.  And mostly the Orioles lost because they did not play together.  Even when the Orioles did score, they simply couldn't stop giving up runs.  But none of that means they punted.  But it also doesn't mean that the could not have done more.  And it all could have been different if say Jack Flaherty pitched like he has this year.

We all want success.  And yes having opportunities should not be wasted.  We need some help and we have ownership and a front office that has access to tools that are needed.  I think they deserve the chance to do this without being so absolute.  

I am hopeful that we get bullpen help and starting pitching help.  And I am not totally against a major top shelf acquisition.  I just do not think it is the only way to maximize this opportunity or the future.   But whatever they do, whether it is enough will depend more on how everyone else that is here performs.  Not just down the stretch but during the playoffs.  

If we see what we have mostly seen for the last year and a half, I feel pretty optimistic.  If we see what we have seen for the last couple of weeks, both offensively and with pitching, then a Skubal or Miller isn't going to have mattered.  I think you sell the entire organization a little short, but I completely agree that the drive to be better, or to have better talent both for today and tomorrow should always be front of mind.  One thing is for certain, I do appreciate being in a position where anything short of a title is a miss.

I appreciate the perspective. Very well stated!

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, dystopia said:

You’re not understanding me. You said there was a fall off after the big three, now you’re moving the goalposts to #7. 
 

Also please provide a link because I have no idea where you’re getting this information. 

No … I was posting facts . Holliday is a 70 … Mayo and Basallo are almost certainly 60+ the next rating cycle.  I’m not sure I seeing anyone else that high or anyone moving up into that range. Hard to see if the top draftees will. 
 

Essentially I’m not excited about anyone 4-10 except Norby whom the Orioles don’t seem to value very high due to shortcomings in defense. So yes there is a drop off after 3 but we do have a 50-55 guys. 

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, dystopia said:

You’re not understanding me. You said there was a fall off after the big three, now you’re moving the goalposts to #7. 
 

Also please provide a link because I have no idea where you’re getting this information. 

No … I was posting facts . Holliday is a 70 … Mayo and Basallo are almost certainly 60+ the next rating cycle.  I’m not sure I seeing anyone else that high or anyone moving up into that range. Hard to see if the top draftees will. 
 

Essentially I’m not excited about anyone 4-10 except Norby whom the Orioles don’t seem to value very high due to shortcomings in defense. So yes there is a drop off after 3 but we do have a 50-55 guys. 

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, dystopia said:

You’re not understanding me. You said there was a fall off after the big three, now you’re moving the goalposts to #7. 
 

Also please provide a link because I have no idea where you’re getting this information. 

No … I was posting facts . Holliday is a 70 … Mayo and Basallo are almost certainly 60+ the next rating cycle.  I’m not sure I seeing anyone else that high or anyone moving up into that range. Hard to see if the top draftees will. 
 

Essentially I’m not excited about anyone 4-10 except Norby whom the Orioles don’t seem to value very high due to shortcomings in defense. So yes there is a drop off after 3 but we do have a 50-55 guys. 

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, dystopia said:

You’re not understanding me. You said there was a fall off after the big three, now you’re moving the goalposts to #7. 
 

Also please provide a link because I have no idea where you’re getting this information. 

Quit with the goal post crap…. There is a drop off after 3. It’s true…they have ratings that indicate Star level expectations. 50 FV I believe is a ceiling of MLB contributor. 
 

There is a big difference between a MLB regular a perennial allstar no?

Do you think Bradfield is a perrenial Allstar at this point? 

[sportsfan8703]

What about Blake Snell?  Since coming off the IL, he's thrown 12 scoreless.  He obviously made a huge mistake by listening to Boras and holding out to miss ST.  But what if he's back to being... Blake Snell.  Two time CYA winner.  He has a $30 million player option.  

He's way cheaper in terms of prospects.  Who cares about what has happened this season up until this point.  Would he be that much worst that Skubal the rest of the way.  

I'd be inclined to roll the dice with him.  Dude is a beast.  

[Yardball85]

Not saying the rumor was true, but interesting food for thought.

https://birdswatcher.com/posts/conflicting-reports-indicate-orioles-willingness-to-trade-jackson-holliday-01j32ygjgcf5