How much longer for Mullins

[ScGO's]

Cedric and Cowser are black holes in the line up right now. Cowser OPS in the last 30 days is .549

Mullins has a .304 OPS in the last 30 days

[Malike]

21 minutes ago, Chavez Ravine said:

But the idea of going down to AAA and “getting right” is so last decade. Stud prospects are coming up and flailing because it seems the gap in skills has grown. Folks ain’t translating the love of the  robo ump and mediocre pitching to the Show. Plus Mullins wasn’t claimed off waivers. He is an old school Oriole. You send Mullins down because you think he is done—and you ask his thoughts on the matter beforehand—not because he is going through a soft patch.

Right, you go down to AAA to get your timing and you see no velocity or LHP that are talented at all. Any LHP with talent is brought up to the MLB. MLB hitters on rehab are saying they aren't seeing any velocity.

If Mullins goes down and posts an .850 OPS, I don't think anyone would think he's been "fixed".

[Malike]

3 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

Cedric and Cowser are black holes in the line up right now. Cowser OPS in the last 30 days is .549

Mullins has a .304 OPS in the last 30 days

Prepare to be enlightened on how Cowser isn't struggling, he's just having bad luck.

[LGOrioles]

36 minutes ago, Malike said:

Prepare to be enlightened on how Cowser isn't struggling, he's just having bad luck.

And yet his OPS in that timeframe is almost double that of Mullins. That’s not a compliment to Cowser, but that’s definitely not good for Mullins either. 

[Malike]

2 minutes ago, LGOrioles said:

And yet his OPS in that timeframe is almost double that of Mullins. That’s not a compliment to Cowser, but that’s definitely not good for Mullins either. 

It's a pretty big indictment of both players.

[Moose Milligan]

47 minutes ago, Malike said:

Prepare to be enlightened on how Cowser isn't struggling, he's just having bad luck.

I like the snark in this comment a lot (and no, that's not me being snarky).

I understand why that argument exists but I agree that it gets annoying when the player in question is drawing the collar practically every night and then that argument is used to defend said player.  Like...fine, yeah, he's unlucky but that doesn't change the fact that he came up short in a big situation tonight, etc.

[Malike]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I like the snark in this comment a lot (and no, that's not me being snarky).

I understand why that argument exists but I agree that it gets annoying when the player in question is drawing the collar practically every night and then that argument is used to defend said player.  Like...fine, yeah, he's unlucky but that doesn't change the fact that he came up short in a big situation tonight, etc.

It's not unlucky striking out 30% of the time.

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, Malike said:

It's not unlucky striking out 30% of the time.

That's true, too.  

[Malike]

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

That's true, too.  

I guess it's the other two-thirds of ABs where he's unlucky.

[LGOrioles]

24 minutes ago, Malike said:

It's a pretty big indictment of both players.

Yeah Cowser has had some bad games for sure. But coming into tonight the players right in front of him in terms of xwOBA were William Contreras (OPS is .116 higher) and Josh Naylor (OPS is .044 higher). Two pretty good hitters. He’s had a bad last few games but I will definitely take his last month with his strong expected numbers over Mullins actual/expected numbers. That being said, let’s hope he starts actually producing though.

[Malike]

10 minutes ago, LGOrioles said:

Yeah Cowser has had some bad games for sure. But coming into tonight the players right in front of him in terms of xwOBA were William Contreras (OPS is .116 higher) and Josh Naylor (OPS is .044 higher). Two pretty good hitters. He’s had a bad last few games but I will definitely take his last month with his strong expected numbers over Mullins actual/expected numbers. That being said, let’s hope he starts actually producing though.

I go back to Tom Tango's quote about expected metrics quite frequently.

An interesting read if anyone is so inclined. 

Properly Diving Into Expected Stats | Community Blog (fangraphs.com)

“Tango then stressed that the expected metrics were only ever intended to be descriptive, that they were not designed to be predictive, and that if they had been intended to be predictive, they could have been designed differently or other metrics could be used.”

For what it is intended to do, which is try to separate a player from extenuating circumstances and tell the story of a player differently, expected stats have accomplished their job. Asking it to do more than that (predict future success) would be asking too much based on the purpose of the metric when formulated, which is evident in the data.

 

The most popular metrics on the website, however, are their expected stats: expected batting average (xBA), expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA), expected on-base percentage (xOBP), expected slugging percentage (xSLG), and expected isolated power (xISO). Essentially, these statistics are what you’d expect based on the name; they indicate what a player’s “true talent level is” based on the quality of their contact, frequency of contact, and, depending on the batted ball, sprint speed.

This would appear to be a gold mine on the surface. With the ability to know what numbers a player deserves to have, we should be able to separate their talent level from outside circumstances, and thus better predict future performance. Yet that actually isn’t the case.

Edited June 9 by Malike
Forgot link.

[Filmstudy]

In terms of Mullins specifically:

1. There has to be a real limit and I think the Orioles will get there no later than the AS break if he continues to hit under .200 with OPS < .600 for the games between now and then.  BTW, the Orioles will be entirely tight-lipped about it until they actually pull the trigger so we could literally hear lip service until the day before he is optioned.

2. Hays may have broken out of his funk and it does not help Mullins (in terms of staying in the Show) that he did so with a short stint in the minor leagues, which was **cough** completely injury-related.

3. The Orioles hit the reset easily with Wells, Grayson proactively.  Please don't bother to give me 29 reasons why those cases are different, because I know they are, but the fact Elias and Co. decided on the resets indicates a bias for action.

4. The Orioles can't afford to have multiple players in deep offensive funks when their offense is so HR-dependent.  OBP, specifically, is needed either by addition or subtraction.  This point actually may help Mullins because it appears Santander has turned it around and Hays has been solid since his hiatus.  In a way, that may give Cedric to the AS break.

In terms of whether or not a AAA stint might be worthwhile, I'm not sure it will, but he can't play every day in MLB now, so I have to believe he has a better chance to fix fundamentals at Norfolk or elsewhere.  If he is sent down, I fully trust the front office to have a plan to get him right.

So please feel free to refute, but what I want to hear from as many people as care to say is when the actual line in the sand is drawn in terms of a date if the production level I specifiy is not met.

[now]

Good points. The problem (?) with the AS break is the team might see the break itself as a kind of reset, leaving another trial beyond...

[Frobby]

On 6/6/2024 at 9:15 AM, sportsfan8703 said:

This is the type of post that on the FB page would get 40 replies.  

Question from a non-FB user: what’s the reason someone would post on the OH FB page rather than here?  Are there advantages and disadvantages?   What’s the volume like here vs. there?

[Frobby]

I guess this thread, and other ones discussing the same subject, will draw a lot of activity so long as Mullins continues to struggle, and will be busy every time Mullins has a bad day.  But I suspect Mullins still has a lot more rope.  We’ve seen Urías and to a lesser extent Hays snap out of their funks, and the O’s will continue to give Mullins chances to do the same.  It’s painful to watch, but that’s what I’m expecting to happen.  The fact that he plays a good CF gives him more rope than if he were a so-so corner OF.

i wish I could say I knew why he can’t get his good swing unlocked.  I can’t believe that at 29 he’s had some drastic drop-off in physical ability.  Somehow, he’s got himself all screwed up.  He’s late and swinging under pitches all the time.