My 2024 Midseason Report Card

[Frobby]

With 81 games in the books, it’s time for my annual midseason report card.   This post will grade the hitters (50 PA minimum), and I’ll grade the pitchers (20 IP minimum) in a separate post.   As in the past, my grades are on a curve that considers my personal expectations for the player, so they are highly subjective.

Adley Rutschman, .300/.351/.479 (140 OPS+), 15 HR, 55 RBI, 3.4 rWAR, 2.9 fWAR: A.  We’ve seen a slightly different version of Adley this year, consciously trying to lift and pull the ball more, and being more aggressive.   The result has been more homers and RBI, higher BA, but a lower OBP, way fewer walks and fewer doubles.   Overall, the tradeoff has been worth it (140 OPS+ is higher than in 2022-23), but I wonder if there is still an even better version of Adley that maintains the power while raising the OBP and walks.   If you compare Gunnar’s more passive first half and more aggressive second half of last year with what he’s done this year, he’s found that sweet spot between being aggressive and being selective in a way he never quite did last year, and I think Adley can eventually do something similar (no, I am not saying he will be Gunnar’s equal offensively, just that he can take another step forward I think).  Even though there may still be a better version to come, the current iteration deserves an A.  Adley deservedly received the most votes for catcher in the first round of all star voting, and hopefully will be elected the starter.  In addition to his offense, Adley is second in MLB in blocks above average (+11), while holding his own in catching runners (0 CSAA) and scoring just slightly negative on framing (-2 framing runs).  Incredibly, Adley has allowed only 6 wild pitches to get past him in 49 starts behind the plate.  The team was a dominant 33-16 when Adley was behind the dish in the first half, and yet he also carried a 1.072 OPS when serving as DH.  He’s also carrying a .361/.388/.500 OPS with runners in scoring position.

James McCann, .202/.226/.325 (59 OPS+), 3 HR, 13 RBI, -0.3 rWAR, -0.3 fWAR: D.   My expectations for McCann were basically set by his performance last year, when he was worth 0.5 rWAR, 0.3 fWAR and had a .646 OPS.   He’s underperformed those numbers pretty significantly.   His defensive metrics also have slipped: -1 blocking runs, 0 stealing, -3 framing.  For a while, the team’s record with McCann catching was nearly as good as Adley’s, but now the team is “only” 18-14 when McCann starts.   One saving grace: this year, Brandon Hyde has entirely stopped using McCann as a DH.   When he plays, he catches, saving Adley’s legs for the post-season.

Ryan Mountcastle, .276/.320/.466 (127 OPS+), 11 HR, 40 RBI, 1.9 rWAR, 1.1 fWAR: B+.  In some ways, it’s been a pretty typical Mounty season, marked by hot and cold streaks.  Still, his OPS+ is higher than he’s ever had over a full season, and he’s on pace for his top WAR season too.  He’s also an all-star finalist, having outpolled Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the first round.  His platoon splits are much more balanced than last year and have kept him in the lineup even when Ryan O’Hearn plays, for the most part.   The biggest flaw for Mountcastle so far has been his subpar .227/.317/.409 line with RISP, though he has hit 8 of his 11 homers with runners on base, an above average ratio.

Ryan O’Hearn, .284/.342/.466 (134 OPS+), 10 HR, 33 RBI, 1.7 rWAR,1.4 fWAR: A-.  I expected a bit of a regression from O’Hearn’s 122 OPS+ last season, and so far we haven’t seen it.  Instead, with even more playing time than he got last year, his OPS + is up to 134.    He’s already surpassed his 1.2 rWAR and almost equaled his 1.5 fWAR from last year.  And, he’s yet another all-star finalist at the DH spot, though Yordan Alvarez seems very likely to beat him out for the starting spot.

Jorge Mateo, .240/.281/.448 (109 OPS+), 5 HR, 18 RBI, 12 SB, 2 CS, 1,3 rWAR,1.0 fWAR: A-.  I wasn’t even sure Mateo would make this year’s squad, after falling apart last year after April and putting up a 70 OPS+ for the season, and with Hyde’s announcement that Gunnar Henderson would be the everyday SS this year.  Instead, Mateo made an excellent transition to 2B and has been an especially effective hitter vs. LHP (.853 OPS).   With his defensive and baserunning skills, he’ll be hard to knock off the roster so long as he hits credibly, and Hyde’s usage of him has kept his numbers credible.   Of course, we know Mateo is capable of incredible, long  nosedives when he slumps, but he has avoided protracted cold streaks so far.

Jordan Westburg, .286/.338/.516 (145 OPS+), 13 HR, 48 RBI, 3.0 rWAR, 2.7 fWAR: A.  Coming off a solid, 100 OPS+, 1.2 rWAR, 1.0 fWAR rookie half-season, I was expecting a little more power and a decent improvement for Westburg in 2024.   Instead, we’ve gotten a possible quantum leap.   Westburg deservedly is an all star finalist at 3B, though unlikely to unseat Jose Ramirez, who is better known and having a terrific season.  Honestly, I was tempted to go A+ for Westburg, but let’s leave him some room to grow.

Ramon Urias, .228/.275/.374 (88 OPS+), 4 HR, 10 RBI, 0.3  rWAR, 0.0 fWAR: C-.  Urias started the year in an unbelievable slump, with his OPS at .434 as late as May 1.   He broke out of it, getting as high as .719 on June 19, but is now in a 1 for 16 skein that has taken his OPS+ down to 88.  Still, he’s played a solid enough 3B to have a positive rWAR.   I do think his job is at risk presently, with Coby Mayo knocking so loudly at the door.

Gunnar Henderson, .290/.387/.615 (187 OPS+), 72 R, 26 HR, 57 RBI, 13 SB, 1 CS, 6.0 rWAR, 6.0 fWAR: A++.  I have never given an A++ in my years of doing these report cards, but how could I not?   Simply put, Gunnar has had the best half-season since I have been doing these, and it’s not close.   My expectations for Gunnar were quite high, and he has smashed them.   There’s not a lot more to say.

Colton Cowser, .231/.320/.448 (122 OPS+), 11 HR, 33 RBI, 1.3 rWAR, 2.2 fWAR: B+.  I found Cowser the hardest guy to grade.   On the one hand, a 122 OPS+ probably exceeds my expectations, and his very rangy defensive performance certainly has exceeded them despite an erratic arm.   And still, the BA/OBP are below where I’d hoped they’d be, his poor performance in RISP (.613 OPS) and high leverage (.402) spots has disappointed, and his overall numbers are much better than his May/June numbers, though June is looking a little better after the last few days.   I think B+ is a reasonable landing spot, and he can shoot for higher in the second half.  Initially I gave him a B, but upgraded him to B+ after sleeping on it.

Cedric Mullins, .223/.265/.399 (91 OPS+), 9 HR, 28 RBI, 16 SB, 3 CS, 1.1 rWAR, 0.8 fWAR: C-.   Mullins started the season well, went into a very deep slump in May, and has finally emerged from it in the last few weeks.   He deservedly lost a bit of playing time, though I think he will regain it if he continues to hit decently.   Defensively he’s been very solid, though not a huge upgrade over Cowser, who has proven to be capable in the CF spot, which will keep the pressure on Cedric to keep hitting.   He has not gotten all the way out of the hole he dug for himself offensively, and especially needs to keep building his OBP back to a reasonable level.   I certainly expected more from Cedric, but his decent WAR figures kept him out of D territory for me.  

Anthony Santander, .228/.298/.498 (128 OPS+), 21 HR, 53 RBI, 1.4 rWAR, 1.4 fWAR: A-.  Santander started a bit slowly but came on very strong in June, and managed to produce runs even when he wasn’t hitting all that well.   As things stand now, his 128 OPS+ is higher than he’s had in a full season, and he’s on pace for 40+ homers and 100+ RBI.   Hard to argue with that.  Santander also is one of four candidates for two remaining starting OF spots on the all-star team (Aaron Judge already sewed up one spot for being the top vote-getter at any position in the AL.   I’m sure Juan Soto will get one of those spots, but Santander has at least a fighting chance at the third, as Steve Kwan and Kyle Tucker have superior slash lines but have missed time with injuries.

Austin Hays, .242/.303/.383 (100 OPS+), 3 HR, 12 RBI, 0.0 rWAR, 0.1 fWAR: D+.  After a poor second half last season, Hays had a very poor spring training and an incredibly bad March/April, then missed time on the IL.  Upon returning in mid-May, he did better but still not great, then finally got going in June.  He’s now managed to get his OPS+ up to 100, but his WAR is still hovering around 0.   Hays essentially has lost his starting job to Cowser, as Hyde has pretty much relegated him to starting against lefties.  I’d have to say that Hays’ performance ranks as the most disappointing of anyone who’s gotten 50 PA, even though his 100 OPS+ ranks ahead of Mullins (91), Urias (88) and McCann (59).   Hopefully he can continue his solid June hitting in the second half, but I doubt he’ll see anything close to full-time duty unless there are significant injuries in the outfield.

Well, that’s my take on the offense.   A lot of high grades there, but then, what did you expect for the team that leads the league in runs/game and OPS+?   The O’s were a top 6-7 offense in MLB last year, but this year they’ve been the best in baseball.   The defense also has been solid, so overall you have to give the position players a collective A despite a few disappointing performances.

Anyone here I’ve graded too high or too low?  

Edited Friday at 13:53 by Frobby

[sportsfan8703]

Thanks for doing this. As soon as I realized we were at 81 games when I checked the standings I was waiting to see you post this. 

Adley would see that OBP he’s sacrificed for power go up with a robo ump strike zone. He had to adapt to human error and get more aggressive. 

The things that stand out to me…

- Gunnar is that dude. Give him that Witt deal.

- Mateo’s defense at 2B needs to be realized as possibly the best in MLB.

- Santa is having a big walk year. 

- Mullins and Hays have more defined roles now and both have been hitting pretty well in June. 

- The offense really picked up when the weather picked up.

- I expect boosts from Kjerstad and possibly Mayo in the 2nd half to offset any regression. 

Edited Friday at 14:10 by sportsfan8703

[Aristotelian]

Good post. Is it possible to go even higher on Gunnar? 

I would go B+ on Mateo. I don't think you can get an A- with a .280 OBP. He has exceeded my expectations though and taken the role I thought would go to Urias. 

I would grudgingly give Hays a C. He is back to league average offense (100 OPS+) and plays pretty good D. Coming off the all star year I expected a bit better we've always known he is not a complete player. D+ feels punitive. 

[wildcard]

Outstanding effort Frobby.   I enjoyed the read.    

Adley's DH numbers keep his overall numbers up but his offense suffers when his catches.     He is such a key player no one talks about it.

Grades are fine.  Cowser may be a little high.   His defense is better than I thought it would be before the season.

Agree on Westy.   What a draft pick for Elias.

You listed 12 players.  Mullins and Hays with some of the poorest grades are already hitting better.   Plus Kjerstad is not here.    Mayo and Holliday available when there is space.    It's truly a dream.   

Are you going to do the pitching?

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Outstanding effort Frobby.   I enjoyed the read.    

Adley's DH numbers keep his overall numbers up but his offense suffers when his catches.     He is such a key player no one talks about it.

Grades are fine.  Cowser may be a little high.   His defense is better than I thought it would be before the season.

Agree on Westy.   What a draft pick for Elias.

You listed 12 players.  Mullins and Hays with some of the poorest grades are already hitting better.   Plus Kjerstad is not here.    Mayo and Holliday available when there is space.    It's truly a dream.   

Are you going to do the pitching?

2nd sentence,

” With 81 games in the books, it’s time for my annual midseason report card.   This post will grade the hitters (50 PA minimum), and I’ll grade the pitchers (20 IP minimum) in a separate post. ”

[Jim'sKid26]

When I saw the 81st game was in the books I kept checking the OH looking for this post. I was not disappointed. Stellar overall assessment, as always. Thanks @Frobby!

[RZNJ]

@Frobby

When will the OH poster report cards coming out?   Thanks in advance.  Really looking forward to it.   Unless ………

[Say O!]

A couple other observations wrt position players:

• Os composite position player WAR of 19 is dead heat with LAD as best in baseball.  O’s wRC+ of 122 is just ahead of the LADs 121 (link to fangraphs team leaderboard).
• Os also rate quite high in terms of baserunning value, with Mateo and Gunnar in top10 of MLB.  Mullins and Cowser ~25th in MLB (link to fangraphs individual leaderboard sorted for BSR)

[Frobby]

31 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Good post. Is it possible to go even higher on Gunnar? 

I would go B+ on Mateo. I don't think you can get an A- with a .280 OBP. He has exceeded my expectations though and taken the role I thought would go to Urias. 

I would grudgingly give Hays a C. He is back to league average offense (100 OPS+) and plays pretty good D. Coming off the all star year I expected a bit better we've always known he is not a complete player. D+ feels punitive. 

I think the difference in our grades on these two probably have more to do with our expectations of the two players than our evaluations of their performances.   

[Frobby]

39 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

2nd sentence,

” With 81 games in the books, it’s time for my annual midseason report card.   This post will grade the hitters (50 PA minimum), and I’ll grade the pitchers (20 IP minimum) in a separate post. ”

I hope to get this done later today.   If not, then tomorrow for sure.

[Frobby]

27 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

@Frobby

When will the OH poster report cards coming out?   Thanks in advance.  Really looking forward to it.   Unless ………

Everybody gets a trophy -- in their own minds!  

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

Everybody gets a trophy -- in their own minds!  

I don't know, I've really fallen off on the volume these last couple of years and the quality was never that good.

I'm clearly in my decline phase and I'm OK with that.  I blame the lack of interaction on the music forum.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Everybody gets a trophy -- in their own minds!  

Looks like it’s up to me, chicken ****.   

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't know, I've really fallen off on the volume these last couple of years and the quality was never that good.

I'm clearly in my decline phase and I'm OK with that.  I blame the lack of interaction on the music forum.

That’s too bad.  I feel like I’m only getting better.   

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, RZNJ said:

That’s too bad.  I feel like I’m only getting better.   

You had plenty of room to improve...still do.