Magic Number

[Filmstudy]

Here is the set of magic numbers for all of the Orioles' opponents most likely to catch them in the standings.  These can be applied for the division race, WC qualification, or any seeding. 

NYY: 23* (22 if the Orioles win 1 of 3 at NY)

Bos: 12

TB: 11

Cle: 23

Min: 18

Hou: 19

KC: 16

Det: 13

Sea: 11

 

 

[vab]

[Bahama O's Fan]

7 hours ago, vab said:

And how many games left to play?

[glenn__davis]

44 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

And how many games left to play?

21.

With Detroit's loss last night, magic number down to 11 for a playoff spot.

[bpilktree67]

27 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

21.

With Detroit's loss last night, magic number down to 11 for a playoff spot.

Its actually 12 because they could get the tie breaker over us.  The Red Sox, Rays, and Mariners cant so the Tigers are the closest competition.  

[glenn__davis]

3 minutes ago, bpilktree67 said:

Its actually 12 because they could get the tie breaker over us.  The Red Sox, Rays, and Mariners cant so the Tigers are the closest competition.  

Correct - I knew that, just misread it and thought it was 12 before last night.

[bpilktree67]

On 9/4/2024 at 7:17 AM, Filmstudy said:

Here is the set of magic numbers for all of the Orioles' opponents most likely to catch them in the standings.  These can be applied for the division race, WC qualification, or any seeding. 

NYY: 23* (22 if the Orioles win 1 of 3 at NY)

Bos: 12

TB: 11

Cle: 23

Min: 18

Hou: 19

KC: 16

Det: 13

Sea: 11

 

 

NYY 22 (19 with a win vs them because we get the win, they get the  loss and we get tiebreaker all in game)

Boston 11

Rays   11

Guardians 22

Twins 19

Astros 18

Royals 16

Tigers 12

Mariners 11

[vab]

[Bahama O's Fan]

11 to make the playoffs, right?

[Filmstudy]

Updated Magic numbers vs AL competitors through games of 9/6.  These apply to all 2-way comparisons for division, WC, and seeding, which all use the same tiebreakers:

NYY: 21

Bos: 10

TB: 8

Cle: 21

Min: 15

Hou: 16

KC: 15

Det: 10

Sea: 10

An important concept is that multiple magic numbers can apply to the same goal.  So the Orioles magic number to win the AL East is not 21, it's 21 vs the Yankees AND 10 vs the Red Sox AND 8 vs the Rays.  While it is certainly likely that 21 positive game results in the race with the Yankees will also incorporate 10 positive results vs the Red Sox, it's not a given and magic numbers are about clinching, not being pretty sure.

The largest risk of meeting the highest but not all magic numbers is in the race for the top WC seed that gets to play at home. 

[Jim'sKid26]

11 hours ago, vab said:

Trader.