The State of the Orioles Address

[Sports Guy]

BTW, for what I can tell with the limited stats I found, Davis was never near the top 10 in OPS+ for any season in whichever league he was in.

Not sure how a premium bat could never be close to the leaders in OPS+ at all.

Hell, even on his own teams, he was behind several guys in many different years...Now, he did lead his team once or twice(can't remember which) and finished second once...so that's something again, nothing that says PREMIUM bat...Solid bat? Absolutely. Premium? No chance.

EDIT: Just did a little more research...There were well over 50 batters, with a minimum of 350 plate appearances, that had a better OPS+ in 1990 than Davis did....Most of those players were well over 400 plate appearances.

Again, 50+ players were better but that still means premium? I don't see it.

[GotNitro]

Who would have thought that Chili Davis would be the star of a thread about the State of the Orioles Address?!?

[Lucky Jim]

Looks to me like you're giddy for arguing about anything, just for the sake of doing it, even if you have to go as far as arguing about Chili Davis.

Chili Davis doesn't have anything to do what came up in AM's State of the Orioles comments. Talking about him is is 100% drek left over from somebody claiming that AM is lying when he says he's gonna buy bats. That's what matters, not Chili Davis.

Right, Shack. This is my doing - I've manufactured this out of thin air.

I'm not arguing about Chili Davis - I made my point that Davis was a good singing because he wasn't incredibly expensive and contributed mightily to a WS team.

But trying to convert him into some big-ticket FA signing is absurd. But the argument is absurd on both sides - measuring Davis's value by OPS in an era when OPS didn't exist, and OBP was largely overlooked is nuts (SG).

Arguing that, in an era when $5m was the most anyone got paid, $2.8m constituted a big-time FA contract is equally nuts. All it proves is that it was a different era, with different cost parameters. [in 1991, Davis was the 142nd highest paid player in baseball. In 1992, he was 82nd. In 2006, the 140-142nd highest paid players were Kyle Farnsworth, Brad Penny and Jason Marquis around $5m. In 2006, the 82nd highest paid player made $8m. In other words, Davis was pretty much in the Aubrey Huff price range.]

This is like watching a political debate where both sides think they've stumbled upon some smoking gun (and so keep returning to it) when no one watching really cares about it. There's no "there" here.

[Sports Guy]

Right, Shack. This is my doing - I've manufactured this out of thin air.

I'm not arguing about Chili Davis - I made my point that Davis was a good singing because he wasn't incredibly expensive and contributed mightily to a WS team.

But trying to convert him into some big-ticket FA signing is absurd. But the argument is absurd on both sides - measuring Davis's value by OPS in an era when OPS didn't exist, and OBP was largely overlooked is nuts (SG).

Arguing that, in an era when $5m was the most anyone got paid, $2.8m constituted a big-time FA contract is equally nuts. All it proves is that it was a different era, with different cost parameters.

This is like watching a political debate where both sides think they've stumbled upon some smoking gun (and so keep returning to it) when no one watching really cares about it. There's no "there" here.

Its still a measuring stick and even his era, where his OPS+ was above average, Davis didn't have an OPS that would define him as a "premium bat"...that was and is my point.

Solid bat...yes....Premium bat...No way.

[Guest rochester]

What [free agent] bats have you bought, Andy?

Ummm whom should we have bought outside of a $200MM contract for someone who would not have come here anyway?

[Lucky Jim]

Its still a measuring stick and even his era, where his OPS+ was above average, Davis didn't have an OPS that would define him as a "premium bat"...that was and is my point.

Solid bat...yes....Premium bat...No way.

It's a valid way of measuring performance, I'm not arguing that. What I'm saying is that measuring whether or not Davis was considered a premium bat on the market, at the time, means looking at what teams took into consideration.

Joe Carter is a great example: he was the second highest paid player in the game in 1991 at $3.8m. But his OPS was rarely great. Still, there's no doubt that spending on him in FA would have been considered spending on a "premium bat."

[Sports Guy]

It's a valid way of measuring performance, I'm not arguing that. What I'm saying is that measuring whether or not Davis was considered a premium bat on the market, at the time, means looking at what teams took into consideration.

Joe Carter is a great example: he was the second highest paid player in the game in 1991 at $3.8m. But his OPS was rarely great. Still, there's no doubt that spending on him in FA would have been considered spending on a "premium bat."

Well, whatever teams considered at the time, the point is that Davis just isn't a premium bat...Just because they didn't really delve a lot into stat analysis doesn't change who Chili Davis was.

[Birds of B'more]

Who would have thought that Chili Davis would be the star of a thread about the State of the Orioles Address?!?

Seriously. Can't we change the thread title to alert others before they waste their time reading it like I just did?

[Lucky Jim]

Well, whatever teams considered at the time, the point is that Davis just isn't a premium bat...Just because they didn't really delve a lot into stat analysis doesn't change who Chili Davis was.

I just think you're approaching it from the wrong angle, SG. I don't think you're wrong about the quality of Davis's bat.

The issue here is whether or not AM will spend on a premium bat. By your logic, if AM had spent $8m on Davis, he still wouldn't have been spending on a premium bat. See the problem?

[Sports Guy]

I just think you're approaching it from the wrong angle, SG. I don't think you're wrong about the quality of Davis's bat.

The issue here is whether or not AM will spend on a premium bat. By your logic, if AM had spent $8m on Davis, he still wouldn't have been spending on a premium bat. See the problem?

No I don't see the problem.

He would have spent 8 million for a middle, mid tier bat..like Huff.

[Lucky Jim]

No I don't see the problem.

He would have spent 8 million for a middle, mid tier bat..like Huff.

But the issue is whether AM would pay big bucks for a free agent bat, not AM's ability to judge talent or value. It's the payment that's the issue you all were bickering about.

[Sports Guy]

But the issue is whether AM would pay big bucks for a free agent bat, not AM's ability to judge talent or value. It's the payment that's the issue you all were bickering about.

I have no doubt AM will pay 8 million on a player.....But in todays market, that is basically a mid tier player.

Will he spend the 12-18 million a year that it takes to get the bigger bat/premium talent, etc...

He was willing to give that to Tex but even AM said he was an exception....and he wasn't willing to go higher either.

So, when the geographic stuff isn't in our favor, then what? What level will AM go to?

So far, he has shown that he will keep his own, which is obviously more important than signing a FA...But he hasn't shown he will spend the big bucks and do what it takes to close the deal on a big name FA.

I think there is reason to doubt that he will.

As I have said, if another steal is on the market like we got for Miggy or the Angels with Vlad, then I think the Orioles will be in on that player and have a good shot at him..but if those steals are gone, then I highly doubt our ability to add a premium bat.

[Lucky Jim]

I have no doubt AM will pay 8 million on a player.....But in todays market, that is basically a mid tier player.

Will he spend the 12-18 million a year that it takes to get the bigger bat/premium talent, etc...

He was willing to give that to Tex but even AM said he was an exception....and he wasn't willing to go higher either.

So, when the geographic stuff isn't in our favor, then what? What level will AM go to?

So far, he has shown that he will keep his own, which is obviously more important than signing a FA...But he hasn't shown he will spend the big bucks and do what it takes to close the deal on a big name FA.

I think there is reason to doubt that he will.

As I have said, if another steal is on the market like we got for Miggy or the Angels with Vlad, then I think the Orioles will be in on that player and have a good shot at him..but if those steals are gone, then I highly doubt our ability to add a premium bat.

But $8m in 1991 would be a huge contract - the biggest in baseball. The only question here was whether AM signed Chili Davis to a big-ticket contract.

The answer is no - he signed him to a Huff contract. So you're absolutely right on that.

The OPS rationale is just a distraction from the main point because it doesn't measure market value ("big-ticket-worthiness) at the time of the contract.

[LookinUp]

I think the two outstanding questions are:

1. How premium of a bat would McPhail buy? For example, would he pay for a Beltre, likely yes. Would he pay for an ARod or Pujols? Likely no.

2. Should the Orioles be in the market for top top players when 2nd tier players could likely be much more cost-effective? I think this question is open for debate.

[Sports Guy]

But $8m in 1991 would be a huge contract - the biggest in baseball. The only question here was whether AM signed Chili Davis to a big-ticket contract.

The answer is no - he signed him to a Huff contract. So you're absolutely right on that.

The OPS rationale is just a distraction from the main point because it doesn't measure market value ("big-ticket-worthiness) at the time of the contract.

Well, I started this off talking about the merits of being able to call Davis a premium bat....thus why I used his OPS numbers and why I have since shown that he clearly wasn't a premium bat that time even though he was one the year the Twins won the WS.

Of course, by using that rationale, you must also say that Duq acquired a premium bat in Huff because of what he did last year...obviously that rationale is very poor.