The State of the Orioles Address

[Sports Guy]

Your whole argument here is that Davis was not a premium bat. That's your opinion.

You could also not have the opinion that Tex isnt' a premium bat. So if AM spent 25 million on Tex, it is obvious that he would pay for a bigtime player, but you could say it's not, because you dont' consider Tex a premium bat.

The highest salary in the times we are talking about has been established at 5 mil or so. So, if AM would have given Davis 8 million per, it would be obvious he'd pay top money for a top FA, since 8 million would have been top money.

Just because you don't agree Davis was a premium bat, doesn't dis-support the fact that AM would have paid top dollar.

But AM didn't pay top dollar...He didn't throw 5 million at him because he thought he wasn't a top level FA/premium bat.

So whats your point?

[Lucky Jim]

Well, I started this off talking about the merits of being able to call Davis a premium bat....thus why I used his OPS numbers and why I have since shown that he clearly wasn't a premium bat that time even though he was one the year the Twins won the WS.

Of course, by using that rationale, you must also say that Duq acquired a premium bat in Huff because of what he did last year...obviously that rationale is very poor.

You're not following my logic. I don't think that Davis was a premium bat - he was a second-tier bat who got paid second-tier money.

My point was only that OPS isn't the way to measure top-tier bats in 1991 because the market didn't look to OPS-ish stats to find that kind of value. OBP was wildly underrated (hence the Moneyball revolution).

[Lucky Jim]

I think the two outstanding questions are:

1. How premium of a bat would McPhail buy? For example, would he pay for a Beltre, likely yes. Would he pay for an ARod or Pujols? Likely no.

2. Should the Orioles be in the market for top top players when 2nd tier players could likely be much more cost-effective? I think this question is open for debate.

These are good points. And you're absolutely right that they're the important ones.

[Sports Guy]

You're not following my logic. I don't think that Davis was a premium bat - he was a second-tier bat who got paid second-tier money.

My point was only that OPS isn't the way to measure top-tier bats in 1991 because the market didn't look to OPS-ish stats to find that kind of value. OBP was wildly underrated (hence the Moneyball revolution).

Hell, I am not even sure how much it is used now.

But even if he had been paid like a premium bat, that doesn't mean he was...it just means the team that paid him overpaid and gave him a stupid contract.

[LookinUp]

Your whole argument here is that Davis was not a premium bat. That's your opinion.

You could also not have the opinion that Tex isnt' a premium bat. So if AM spent 25 million on Tex, it is obvious that he would pay for a bigtime player, but you could say it's not, because you dont' consider Tex a premium bat.

The highest salary in the times we are talking about has been established at 5 mil or so. So, if AM would have given Davis 8 million per, it would be obvious he'd pay top money for a top FA, since 8 million would have been top money.

Just because you don't agree Davis was a premium bat, doesn't dis-support the fact that AM would have paid top dollar.

It's pretty hard to prove a negative. AM hasn't bought premium bats in FA, that's been pretty well established. He has done will in trades though.

I'm not buying the premise that you have to have a "premium" bat to be a winner. Of course, i guess that depends on how you define premium. You obviously need several very very good bats.

[Lucky Jim]

Hell, I am not even sure how much it is used now.

But even if he had been paid like a premium bat, that doesn't mean he was...it just means the team that paid him overpaid and gave him a stupid contract.

But the point is AM's willingness to spend. To spend.

[Lucky Jim]

It's pretty hard to prove a negative. AM hasn't bought premium bats in FA, that's been pretty well established. He has done will in trades though.

I'm not buying the premise that you have to have a "premium" bat to be a winner. Of course, i guess that depends on how you define premium. You obviously need several very very good bats.

We should be all over Beltre.

[Sports Guy]

But the point is AM's willingness to spend. To spend.

And its a willingness he hasn't shown..at least on FAs.

[Sports Guy]

We should be all over Beltre.

Off the top of my head, Beltre, Hardy and Adrian Gonzalez are 3 guys I could see us going after over the next few years...None of them should get more than 5 years and none should get more than 15 per year.

[hallmt18]

Besides we put our ML players in a tent outside in the heat to workout.

you're right, it's ridiculous to ask pro baseball players to exert themselves - outside!! in the heat!!!

[LookinUp]

But the point is AM's willingness to spend. To spend.

We should be all over Beltre.

Off the top of my head, Beltre, Hardy and Adrian Gonzalez are 3 guys I could see us going after over the next few years...None of them should get more than 5 years and none should get more than 15 per year.

Isn't this a nice little progression in the discussion.

Perhaps we really don't need to spend $25 million on one guy. I'm surprised so many seem to be salivating at the thought of AM doing this.

Where are all of the smart posters who would much rather him get relative value guys like SG is talking about (although, I'm betting Hardy eventually gets overpaid)? Who on this site would rather have Tex at $25/year over Gonzalez at $15/year? I wouldn't.

We're the Orioles, not the Yankees. To sustain a competitive team w/o constantly turning over our players we need to get great value in FA and we need to re-sign our guys at less than free agent prices (Kakes a good start).

I'm so happy AM gets this, even if many fans don't.

[Sports Guy]

I think that's a bit premature. Suppose Snyder gets switched to 3B and has a big year in AA? Suppose Tyler Henson becomes a top 5 prospect this year in Frederick? I might like the option of resigning Mora to a 1 or 2 year deal as opposed to signing Beltre to a 5 year deal (which is possible depending on the market). Too soon to tell, IMO.

True but as things stand right now, Beltre is a great target.

[Lucky Jim]

I think that's a bit premature. Suppose Snyder gets switched to 3B and has a big year in AA? Suppose Tyler Henson becomes a top 5 prospect this year in Frederick? I might like the option of resigning Mora to a 1 or 2 year deal as opposed to signing Beltre to a 5 year deal (which is possible depending on the market). Too soon to tell, IMO.

I don't think there's much that Snyder could do to convince that Beltre wouldn't be a good signing. He's highly unlikely to be a plus-defender there, so if the bat improves you can always move him to 1B. Beltre should give plus-plus defense (which we know AM prioritizes) and decent numbers in Baltimore. He had an .862 road OPS last year and .858 in 2007.

Hoping for Tyler Henson to become "top 5" is a long-shot at best - he put up a .702 OPS at A-ball this year. You'd really let THAT preclude us from signing a (likely) undervalued FA?

[Sports Guy]

I don't think there's much that Snyder could do to convince that Beltre wouldn't be a good signing. He's highly unlikely to be a plus-defender there, so if the bat improves you can always move him to 1B. Beltre should give plus-plus defense (which we know AM prioritizes) and decent numbers in Baltimore. He had an .862 road OPS last year and .858 in 2007.

Hoping for Tyler Henson to become "top 5" is a long-shot at best - he put up a .702 OPS at A-ball this year. You'd really let THAT preclude us from signing a (likely) undervalued FA?

Excellent post...

[RShack]

I know mods can merge threads, but can they split them?

It would be nice to have a thread about AM's report without page after page of a couple guys arguing about Chili Davis. Can the thread be split in two?