O's acquire LHP Trevor Rogers from Marlins

[dystopia]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Well this explains why we had to pay more than expected.  A bit of deadline bidding war took place.  It still makes little sense of what Fedde went for compared to Rogers.  

A bidding war Elias should not have engaged in. 
 

I’m just really annoyed that he targeted this particular pitcher. 

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

$13 million for a middle of rotation starter is a lot of money?

No but there is plenty of reason to believe that’s not what he will be going forward

[doccat]

The only conclusion I can draw is the O's thought they saw something they could "fix" with Rogers?  Pitch selection or some type of correctable issue?   His WHIP is almost an eye-popping 1.6!   Cole Irvin's was 1.4.  We could have sat tight and used Norby/Stowers in some other deal, or just merely kept them and used Cole Irvin as #5 starter....

 

I've always understood Elias' moves up until this one- it remains a total head-scratcher to me....

[OriolesMagic83]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No but there is plenty of reason to believe that’s not what he will be going forward

He's been like a #2/3 this season.  I'm not expecting that.  I don't see why he can't at least be a #4. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

He's been like a #2/3 this season.  I'm not expecting that.  I don't see why he can't at least be a #4. 

You don’t pay 13M plus trade assets for a #4.

And he has an ERA of a 2/3 starter..he has a lot of other stats of a 4/5 guy.

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, LookitsPuck said:

Hell, even what the Dodgers gave up for Flaherty. Yeah, I get Flaherty has a negative history here and he's a true rental, but I have a very hard time saying this Rogers trade meaningfully helps the O's this year. Maybe he's a long-term play because of the additional 2 years left of control, but man...Rogers reads like a borderline #5 this year with...not much to show about him exceeding that next year and beyond. He's like Cole Irvin when he was acquired, but Irvin cost significantly less. The Astros certainly overpaid for Kikuchi (also a rental), but he at least has a ton of upside/history even though he was getting bombed recently after starting strong.

Fedde cost pennies. That was a miss by Elias, IMHO.

I get it - Skubal would have cost far too much. But Rogers just isn't exciting unless the O's really, truly believe he can bounce back to some shadow of himself from a few years ago. But right now it feels like a desperation move from Elias.

While I agree that we overpaid for Rogers in the sense that I hoped those two players (Norby & Stowers) could have landed us a better player than a #5 starter. I think 2 things factored into the decision for Elias:

1) We needed another competent, credible Major League starter badly! The combination of the 🗑 that we were rolling out there for the 6 weeks prior wasn't competitive and causes us to give away too many games. Look at the negative WAR of pitchers like Povich, Irvin, etc and that says it all.

2) The two players that we traded had no use to us. I know some posters thought that Norby could have stayed because they mistakenly undervalued Holliday's ability based on his 2 and 1/2 weeks with the team in April. But the fact is, Norby was always a placeholder at best and he was simply in Holliday's way. So, Elias had to move him in order to make room for Holliday and to some extent Mayo. Norby and Stowers were never going to be mainstays or serious contributors to the Baltimore Orioles because there was simply no room for them.

But I agree on Rogers, he is nothing more than a league average, back of the rotation starter at best. But that is still vastly better than what we had taking the mound every fifth day, which was almost a guaranteed loss.

[Bemorewins]

10 minutes ago, doccat said:

The only conclusion I can draw is the O's thought they saw something they could "fix" with Rogers?  Pitch selection or some type of correctable issue?   His WHIP is almost an eye-popping 1.6!   Cole Irvin's was 1.4.  We could have sat tight and used Norby/Stowers in some other deal, or just merely kept them and used Cole Irvin as #5 starter....

 

I've always understood Elias' moves up until this one- it remains a total head-scratcher to me....

We tried the Irvin/Povich/McDemott/Suarez experience for 6 weeks to the tune of disastrous results. They were literally weighing down the team. Just look at the team's ERA with them starting games over the last 6 weeks or look at the team's ERA during that time. All horrible, like at the bottom of the league bad. NONE of those guys (including Irvin) are big league starters right now. Maybe Irvin was in 2021? But not now. He just doesn't have enough talent (stuff + command) to be successful. The more starts he makes (like Suarez) the more he gets exposed, as the league adjust he doesn't have the ability to counter adjust. 

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

You don’t pay 13M plus trade assets for a #4.

And he has an ERA of a 2/3 starter..he has a lot of other stats of a 4/5 guy.

His career WAR is 16.8,  His Career ERA is 4.19, Career FIP 4.31, he's been a starter since 2016, I would much rather have him than Rogers, but suit yourself.  Unless the price was sky high, he would have been a better addition than Rogers and again $13 mill for next year is what the O's are paying Kimbrel, not exactly a lock down closer.

[Baseball fandom]

1 hour ago, dystopia said:

A bidding war Elias should not have engaged in. 
 

I’m just really annoyed that he targeted this particular pitcher. 

Totally agree. I wonder if Norby and Stowers would had gotten the Orioles Fedde instead. Much prefer him. Also I wonder if Tyler Anderson was available as I also would had  prefer him as well over Rogers. 

[OnlyOneOriole]

1 hour ago, doccat said:

The only conclusion I can draw is the O's thought they saw something they could "fix" with Rogers?  Pitch selection or some type of correctable issue?   His WHIP is almost an eye-popping 1.6!   Cole Irvin's was 1.4.  We could have sat tight and used Norby/Stowers in some other deal, or just merely kept them and used Cole Irvin as #5 starter....

 

I've always understood Elias' moves up until this one- it remains a total head-scratcher to me....

This was my thought as well.  Seems like a major overpay and the assets we gave up could have been used as part of a package to get a better pitcher this off season. 

[Bahama O's Fan]

In what ways is Rogers better than Irvin?

[dystopia]

On 7/30/2024 at 2:20 PM, dystopia said:

F tier trade. Absolutely horrible. 

Nothing I’ve seen has changed my mind about this so far. 

[interloper]

7 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Nothing I’ve seen has changed my mind about this so far. 

I think it will have to wait until next year to truly judge it.

[LookitsPuck]

5 minutes ago, interloper said:

I think it will have to wait until next year to truly judge it.

For this year, it was an F. To me, you’re in a pennant raise and you need to shore up the rotation. Bringing in a guy that *might* (at best!) help you in 2025-2026 isn’t a great use of resources especially since he’s arguably not much of an upgrade for the 2024 club. Felt a lot of having your cake and eating it, too. Feels like Elias tried to get too cute.

[Just Regular]

We'll see some of what Elias really thinks of him when the playoff roster is composed.

Guys with his draft pedigree are always get to get tons more chances than Cole Irvin even if the performance is similar.

I assume Cole Irvin at $2M and coming up on Arb2 is an easy non-tender, but that will go alongside the draft roster decision as we see how much Elias hedges.