Vance Honeycutt

[Three Run Homer]

We drafted Fabian in the competitive balance round after the 2nd round.  He was seen as a guy with four outstanding tools and a suspect hit tool, with a lot of swing and miss.  

We drafted Honeycutt in the 1st round.  He was seen as a guy with four outstanding tools and a suspect hit tool, with a lot of swing and miss.  

Why was Honeycutt worth such an elevated pick relative to Fabian?  

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

We drafted Fabian in the competitive balance round after the 2nd round.  He was seen as a guy with four outstanding tools and a suspect hit tool, with a lot of swing and miss.  

We drafted Honeycutt in the 1st round.  He was seen as a guy with four outstanding tools and a suspect hit tool, with a lot of swing and miss.  

Why was Honeycutt worth such an elevated pick relative to Fabian?  

Because he’s seen as being an even better defender, having more speed, and a little more power.     I think.    It’s a good question though.   He’s bigger than Fabian, FWIW.

 

Edited September 3 by RZNJ

[RZNJ]

What I’d like to do is take Norby, Cowser, Beavers, Fabian, etc. and actually show how all of their strikeout rates increased from college to the pros especially the higher they advanced.   They sacrificed contact for power in most, if not all cases.    Some, like Norby and Cowser increased a lot but they all increased from just looking at things quickly.    In Honeycutt’s case, we’re taking a player who had a 27.4% rate his junior year.   If he follows the path of a typical Oriole round 1-2 pick that’s almost a guarantee that it spikes to 30% just in A+.     The question is going to be if they can even keep it close to 30% as he advances to AA and AAA.   It’s possible but the history of our own prospects isn’t reason for optimism.

[OriolesMagic83]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

What I’d like to do is take Norby, Cowser, Beavers, Fabian, etc. and actually show how all of their strikeout rates increased from college to the pros especially the higher they advanced.   They sacrificed contact for power in most, if not all cases.    Some, like Norby and Cowser increased a lot but they all increased from just looking at things quickly.    In Honeycutt’s case, we’re taking a player who had a 27.4% rate his junior year.   If he follows the path of a typical Oriole round 1-2 pick that’s almost a guarantee that it spikes to 30% just in A+.     The question is going to be if they can even keep it close to 30% as he advances to AA and AAA.   It’s possible but the history of our own prospects isn’t reason for optimism.

I was excited when Vance was drafted, but that is concerning.  There;s a good chance that Vance could be Stowers w/ an even higher K rate.  I hope the O's/Elias know what they're doing.  Vance is a great athlete, but great athletes fail every year at baseball because the #1 thing for position players is can you hit MLB pitching.

[seak05]

6 hours ago, Three Run Homer said:

We drafted Fabian in the competitive balance round after the 2nd round.  He was seen as a guy with four outstanding tools and a suspect hit tool, with a lot of swing and miss.  

We drafted Honeycutt in the 1st round.  He was seen as a guy with four outstanding tools and a suspect hit tool, with a lot of swing and miss.  

Why was Honeycutt worth such an elevated pick relative to Fabian?  

This is Fabian’s slash line his senior year at Florida: .239/.414/.598

Honeycutt .318/.410/.724

while their prosper profile is similar in terms of strengths and weaknesses, their production wasn’t 

[sportsfan8703]

7 hours ago, Three Run Homer said:

We drafted Fabian in the competitive balance round after the 2nd round.  He was seen as a guy with four outstanding tools and a suspect hit tool, with a lot of swing and miss.  

We drafted Honeycutt in the 1st round.  He was seen as a guy with four outstanding tools and a suspect hit tool, with a lot of swing and miss.  

Why was Honeycutt worth such an elevated pick relative to Fabian?  

If Honeycutt didn’t have swing and miss then he was in line to go top 5 overall. Just like if EBJ had more power then he would have been in line to go top 5-10. 

We’re not picking top 5 anymore. There’s a reason these two “fell” to us. 

[RZNJ]

47 minutes ago, seak05 said:

This is Fabian’s slash line his senior year at Florida: .239/.414/.598

Honeycutt .318/.410/.724

while their prosper profile is similar in terms of strengths and weaknesses, their production wasn’t 

Absolutely great point.   Counterpoint.

.318/410/.724

.305/418/.711

Mac Horvath’s slash line at the same school as a junior one year previous.   All prospects are individuals so it certainly doesn’t mean Honeycutt is going to have a disappointing first season like Horvath but it’s a sobering thought to see the similarities and realize Horvath’s strikeout rate was much lower at 20.8% his junior year.

I’m not trying to bash Honeycutt or the pick.   We all know there’s great upside there and no pick at #22 has a high rate of success.    It’s just that he comes with long odds and his extremely SSS is pretty much confirmation bias so far.    It’s also worth noting that his 27.4% strikeout rate was way higher than any previos Oriole draft pick in their draft year and it’s hard to find a player who’s college K rate went lower as a pro.   We all know once you get into the 30% area in the minors it’s close to the danger zone and his starter kit was at 27.4%.  Good luck to the Orioles and Honeycutt.   They have their work cut out for them.

Edited September 3 by RZNJ

[RZNJ]

BTW, even if Honeycutt does what wouldn’t surprise me, I keep thinking of Jose Siri.   Siri is a plus plus defender in CF.   He’s got some power and some speed but he’s an absolutely atrocious hitter.   A .223 avg with 35% K rate in 2023 and a .193 avg with a 37% K rate this year.  Breaking balls to him are like changeups to Cowser.   The numbers speak for themselves and yet Siri provided 2.6 fwar last year and is at 1.8 this year.   That’s certainly not what I’m hoping for from Honeycutt but let’s ask @Frobby.   Should we be happy if we get a CF who puts up 2-2.5 fwar seasons for 6 years as the result of the #22 pick in the first round?   
 

Perhaps the Orioles figure that’s his floor and that’s not the worst thing in the world.

P.S.  It’s worth noting that Siri’s K rate in AA at age 23 was 31% and at age 25 in AAA it was 30%.

Edited September 3 by RZNJ

[Tony-OH]

9 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

Reference Jordan Westburg, @LookitsPuck posted this earlier in this thread. He literally has one of the highest k rates of any first rounder in the last decade, which is what I said. I don’t know what you’re talking about. Trying to twist things again?
 

He had 74 PAs in a COVID shortened season, but the game is changing and I think we're going to see more and more college hitters coming out with high strikeout percentages getting drafted higher.

BTW, Westburg has always been about that rate in his professional career including a 21.4 % this year in 420 major league PAs.

I think the point is we have not seen the Orioles draft a "toolsey" guy with a limited hit tool and turn them around. Maybe Honeycutt will be the guys that changes that, but I don't believe the Orioles have some kind of hitting fairy dust that makes hitters much better.

I think they are about as average as any other organization and it's much more important to evaluate and draft the right hitters, then expecting the develop staff to rework a guy and make him much better.

Probably the guy that changed the most from when he was drafted until he made the majors was Joey Ortiz, and he did it himself over COVID when he got himself much stronger. 

Again, I'm not saying the Orioles are terrible at hitting development, just that I don't think they are more than average. 

[skanar]

20 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Should we be happy if we get a CF who puts up 2-2.5 fwar seasons for 6 years as the result of the #22 pick in the first round?  

From 1991 - 2010, players drafted in the first round at pick 21 or later (473 total picks):

missed making the majors 40% of the time

produced <1 WAR (career) 32% of the time

produced 1-10 WAR 16% of the time

produced >10 WAR 12% of the time.

So a 12-18 WAR result in the first 6 years would be a top 10% performance from a player at ~pick 22. I'd certainly be happy with that.

[Frobby]

33 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

  let’s ask @Frobby.   Should we be happy if we get a CF who puts up 2-2.5 fwar seasons for 6 years as the result of the #22 pick in the first round?   

Sure.  Of the 60 no. 22 picks, only 14 of them have exceeded 10 rWAR.

[Tony-OH]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Sure.  Of the 60 no. 22 picks, only 14 of them have exceeded 10 rWAR.

And I think everyone needs to remember this. Drafting a guy #22 is no guarantee he's going to succeed, and it's obvious that Elias is going with more of a boom or bust with Honeycutt. 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

And I think everyone needs to remember this. Drafting a guy #22 is no guarantee he's going to succeed, and it's obvious that Elias is going with more of a boom or bust with Honeycutt. 

If his defense is as good as advertised, I think he probably has a decent floor.  

[RZNJ]

41 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

He had 74 PAs in a COVID shortened season, but the game is changing and I think we're going to see more and more college hitters coming out with high strikeout percentages getting drafted higher.

BTW, Westburg has always been about that rate in his professional career including a 21.4 % this year in 420 major league PAs.

I think the point is we have not seen the Orioles draft a "toolsey" guy with a limited hit tool and turn them around. Maybe Honeycutt will be the guys that changes that, but I don't believe the Orioles have some kind of hitting fairy dust that makes hitters much better.

I think they are about as average as any other organization and it's much more important to evaluate and draft the right hitters, then expecting the develop staff to rework a guy and make him much better.

Probably the guy that changed the most from when he was drafted until he made the majors was Joey Ortiz, and he did it himself over COVID when he got himself much stronger. 

Again, I'm not saying the Orioles are terrible at hitting development, just that I don't think they are more than average. 

I’m a little more generous than you.  I’d say they’re above average but their strength is getting hitters to tap into their power.   Stowers, Ortiz, Westburg, Cowser, Norby.   Stowers and Westburg (sophomore year) were single digit home run guys in college.  Ortiz was essentially Griff O’Ferrall in that he had decent numbers in the rarified air of New Mexico but had zero pop as a pro.   I think they’ve tried to do that with Beavers without success.

Norby and Cowser were hit first prospects who turned into power first/high strikeout guys.   I see no evidence that they took a guy who was already power first/high strikeout guy and somehow made him a significantly better hitter.

Edited September 3 by RZNJ

[Tony-OH]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I’m a little more generous than you.  I’d say they’re above average but their strength is getting hitters to tap into their power.   Stowers, Ortiz, Westburg, Cowser, Norby.   Stowers and Westburg (sophomore year) were single digit home run guys in college.  Ortiz was essentially Griff O’Ferrall.   I think they’ve tried to do that with Beavers without success.

Norby and Cowser were hit first prospects who turned into power first/high strikeout guys.   I see no evidence that they took a guy who was already power first/high strikeout guy and somehow made him a significantly better hitter.

Since I haven't studied the other teams, I really don't know where they fit in honestly. But I think we both agree that they haven't had any success taking low hit tool guys and making them into good hitters. 

Now, will they be willing to live with Jud Fabian or Honeycutt as a 4th outfielder if their contact skills don't improve, because of their defense? Maybe.

I'm not saying Honeycutt is a 4th outfielder already, I'm just saying that at least with Fabian and Honeycutt, you get the defense vs a Stowers/Kjerstad/Norby where defense was their questions marks.