John Meoli’s insights on the Os

[Tony-OH]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I didn’t even know that was a stat.

I wonder what their ERA is with RISP and two outs. Feels like they give up an inordinate amount of two-out hits in those situations. Heck, seems like a lot of two-out, two-strike hits bit us. But that could just be "fan bias" on me because they are the ones that "hurt".

[Too Tall]

I'm not as down as maybe I should be. Concerned - sure. This team is young. This team is hurt. This team has significant needs. This team is not consistent. This team is still learning. This team does NOT stink! This team is still in it as of 8/22. 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Too Tall said:

I'm not as down as maybe I should be. Concerned - sure. This team is young. This team is hurt. This team has significant needs. This team is not consistent. This team is still learning. This team does NOT stink! This team is still in it as of 8/22. 

The current team doesn’t stink but they are mediocre. 
 

This does not mean they can’t win the WS but the current team has a poor pen, mediocre starting pitching overall, a mediocre defense and an inconsistent offense that can only score if they are hitting homers.

If the playoffs started today, they would be lucky to win a game, much less a series.

The only saving grace is that the rest of the league isn’t that good either.

[SilverRocket]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I didn’t even know that was a stat.

What is it for other teams? Obviously it should be a high number just from selection bias and this seems like a bad stat (compared to some opposing offensive stat in that situation).

[SilverRocket]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

So it’s primarily the pitching.  No kidding!   And mind you, 5.14 is the earned run average, not the average runs allowed.  The RA/9 is 5.49.   

On this note, the defense has noticeably gotten worse compared to early in the year. Mayo, Kjerstad, Holliday and Urias have gotten field time compared to Westburg and Mateo. Gunnar had his rough stretch and while he seems past that, he's not quite making the great plays at the pace he was making them in April.

Urias, though not that bad from the eye test, has -9 (!) OAA. OAA doesn't show Holliday and Mateo as too different, which is surprising as I feel like Mateo was very rock solid at 2B and Holliday is prone to some misplays, though the range is probably comparable. Gunnar had very high OAA early in the year and is now at 0.

[e16bball]

I think one of the things that feels so weird (and uncomfortable) about this situation is that we’re not really used to being *this* team.

Dating back to the 2012 Buckle Up Birds, when we’ve been competitive, it’s almost always been in the role of “plucky overachiever.” We’ve always been the team whose success was deemed “unsustainable” by the analysts. Unsustainable record in close games. Unsustainable Pythag/run differential. Unsustainable clutch hitting. Unsustainable health. It’s not that we weren’t “good” — but there’s always been this lingering notion that we were playing over our heads.

Then there’s this team. Since late June, it’s been the exact opposite of what we’ve seen in those good seasons (2012, 2014, 2016, 2023). The bullpen is terrible. The defense has been erratic at best. The hitting has been inconsistent from game to game. No one delivers in the clutch. We aren’t winning the close games. We’re decimated by injuries. In short, we lack pretty much all the ingredients of the Secret Sauce that the good teams of the past decade-plus were marinated in and liberally basted with. 

 

The funny thing is that while it sucks watching it right now, it does actually speak to how good this team is. We’ve had months of unlucky, untimely, unbelievably unfortunate developments on and off the field. For most teams, that means a lost season. For this team? It means it’s mid-August and they haven’t managed to run away with the division crown and the #1 seed. It means we’re in the thick of a dogfight down the stretch with NYY and HOU and CLE over AL supremacy. 

And most importantly, it means that unlike those other Orioles teams, the “other shoe waiting to drop” is not a collapse by us when the unsustainably good outcomes can’t be sustained — it’s actually us getting better. When hopefully the clutch hitting resolved. When hopefully the bullpen settles down a bit and holds some leads. When hopefully some of the injured players make their way back.

This year, for the first time in recent memory, there’s no cliff we’re supposed to fall off. No luck that’s going to run out. We’re going into this stretch run knowing that things can really only get better in all these areas — at minimum, they can’t get much worse. There’s so much upside left for this team, they’re capable of an extremely high level of play, even if they haven’t really been able to reach it for months…which is new for us. 

[waroriole]

1 hour ago, eddie83 said:

I wonder about the youth of the team. Not that they weren’t young last year.  Maybe higher expectations? Who knows. 

Oh no this is gonna make Elias bring in another Odor or Frazier isn’t it?

[LookitsPuck]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I wonder what their ERA is with RISP and two outs. Feels like they give up an inordinate amount of two-out hits in those situations. Heck, seems like a lot of two-out, two-strike hits bit us. But that could just be "fan bias" on me because they are the ones that "hurt".

What’s interesting is OPS against is at 704 with 2 outs. But here are the situations with 2 outs and runners on 2, 3, 2/3, or bases juiced:

• 2nd: 193 BA, 613 OPS
• 3rd: 220, 741
• 2nd/3rd: 277, 824
• Loaded: 229, 622

 

[LookitsPuck]

44 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Oh no this is gonna make Elias bring in another Odor or Frazier isn’t it?

There's already plenty of odor on the club. 

[ledzepp8]

2 hours ago, Baseball fandom said:

As far as I'm concerned since about mid June the whole team stinks right now including the hitting and fielding. The pitching has a little bit of excuse when you consider the amount of starters they have lost and we already knew they didn't have a good BP but this hitting SMH how bad they can look so many times. 

Honestly, it doesn’t really matter what you think. People show you stats that disprove your opinion and you put your fingers in your ears screaming, “I don’t care, I’m right”. 

[Baseball fandom]

1 hour ago, ledzepp8 said:

Honestly, it doesn’t really matter what you think. People show you stats that disprove your opinion and you put your fingers in your ears screaming, “I don’t care, I’m right”. 

And there are others who agree with me. So buzz off with your erroneous stats and how misleading they can be.  Hope you are enjoying these 4-3 loses. 

Edited August 22 by Baseball fandom

[SteveA]

6 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I didn’t even know that was a stat.

I wonder what a good ERA w/RISP is.

I mean, there's already runner's in scoring position.   Just giving up a single might give up a couple runs, giving up a fly ball might give up 2.

For all we know, 9.5 might be a good ERA with RISP.   15.14 is still probalby really bad though.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, SteveA said:

I wonder what a good ERA w/RISP is.

I mean, there's already runner's in scoring position.   Just giving up a single might give up a couple runs, giving up a fly ball might give up 2.

For all we know, 9.5 might be a good ERA with RISP.   15.14 is still probalby really bad though.

Well, if that tweet is correct, it’s dead last so it certainly isn’t good.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, SteveA said:

I wonder what a good ERA w/RISP is.

I mean, there's already runner's in scoring position.   Just giving up a single might give up a couple runs, giving up a fly ball might give up 2.

For all we know, 9.5 might be a good ERA with RISP.   15.14 is still probalby really bad though.

About 70% of all runs are scored with RISP.   PA with RISP make up 20% of all PA.   So, I’d guess that 70/20 x ERA = ERA with RISP (approximately).   If I’m right, that means a typical 4.00 ERA pitcher would have a 14.00 ERA with RISP.   I’m sure that’s flawed, but it seems in the ballpark to me.   

[Baseball fandom]

7 hours ago, ledzepp8 said:

Honestly, it doesn’t really matter what you think. People show you stats that disprove your opinion and you put your fingers in your ears screaming, “I don’t care, I’m right”. 

. Well damn not even their usual 3 runs. Just 3 hits. Like I said they stink. So screw your BS numbers when they score 15 runs one game and then the rest of week nothing. 

Edited August 23 by Baseball fandom