Lately, the offense really DOES suck

[bpilktree67]

2 hours ago, waroriole said:

Holy cow the excuses never stop. Oh no they have to play 2 lefties against LHP. Their 1B with a sub .750 OPS is out. How can they overcome such odds. The offense sucks and it’s not limited to LH on LH ABs. 

Gunnar is .100 lower ops vs lefties, Cowser is over.100 Lowe vs lefties, Mullins is .300 points ops.  Holiday is a platoon type guy right now vs lefties so you have to play Rivera who is a waiver pick up guy without Mateo who is very solid vs lefties  .800 ops. Mountcastle has been much better vs lefties in his career. Then you take one of the better hitters on team with Westburg out of lineup it all adds up.  No excuse but just facts.  
If lineup is healthy vs lefties

3B Westburg

C Rutschman 

SS Henderson 

RF Santander

1B Mountcastle 

DH Jimenez 

CF Cowser

2B Urias\ Mateo

LF Slater

Now compare that to what we had to use last night.  The offense in general is going to be better vs right handers because of Henderson, Cowser and Holiday being left handed.   You can’t play O’Hearn and Mullins vs lefties and have to go with Slater and Jimenez instead. 

 

[Moose Milligan]

Does anyone think for a minute that this is a fair representation of what the offense actually is?  

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

192 BABIP in since last Saturday. Easily the worst in MLB.

 

Yesterday’s game featured a lot of long fly outs.  We only had two hits all game but I can’t say the team had a bad approach at the plate.  Only 7 strikeouts, and walked 4 times.  Attending the game, I didn’t see a lot of bad at bats.  Things just didn’t go our way.  

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yesterday’s game featured a lot of long fly outs.  We only had two hits all game but I can’t say the team had a bad approach at the plate.  Only 7 strikeouts, and walked 4 times.  Attending the game, I didn’t see a lot of bad at bats.  Things just didn’t go our way.  

Right. It’s the opposite of the games where we have been singled to death.

That’s the way things go sometimes.

[bpilktree67]

21 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Yesterday’s game featured a lot of long fly outs.  We only had two hits all game but I can’t say the team had a bad approach at the plate.  Only 7 strikeouts, and walked 4 times.  Attending the game, I didn’t see a lot of bad at bats.  Things just didn’t go our way.  

Yeah they have at least been working the pitcher both Framber and Kikuchi where on their game but couldn’t get 6 innings out of them because of pitch counts and we scratched a few runs off them when they tired.  Those are the type of battles you see in playoffs and hopefully just scratch out enough runs to win a few games in the series.  

[Sports Guy]

Good stuff here on the recent bad luck:

 

[sportsfan8703]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Good stuff here on the recent bad luck:

 

Good stuff.  I hope.  We're also really young, which can be a good thing too.  We just got to put it all together and adjust.  The ingredients are here.  The prospects are here.  Just got to produce now.  

[Low Country Bird]

It appears to me that a lot of our young hitters get pull-happy and don't try to go opposite field.  I know it's all about exit velos and home runs so I also wonder if having such a deep left center and left field influences them (they are just about all lefties) from doing that.  Holliday grounded out to SS on a sharp grounder the other night and I was actually happy to see it.  Rather than rolling over and hitting a weak grounder to second, which seems to be much more of the norm for him and others lately, he at least tried to go with the pitch and hit it the other way.

[Frobby]

30 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Good stuff here on the recent bad luck:

 

That gives me some encouragement, though I’m a firm believer that BABIP and even BA on 95+ mph hits are not totally or even primarily driven by luck.  Sometimes the launch angles and/or the direction the ball is hit just don’t lend themselves to hits falling in.  

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That gives me some encouragement, though I’m a firm believer that BABIP and even BA on 95+ mph hits are not totally or even primarily driven by luck.  Sometimes the launch angles and/or the direction the ball is hit just don’t lend themselves to hits falling in.  

I mean this is all fine but it misses on the larger point…that point being that the Os are hitting the ball hard and are, without question, not getting lucky.

Thats an inarguable point. When you hit the ball hard, it’s more likely to be a hit.

 

Edited August 26 by Sports Guy

[Frobby]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

I mean this is all fine but the it misses on the larger point…that point being that the Os are hitting the ball hard and are, without question, not getting lucky.

Thats an inarguable point. When you hit the ball hard, it’s more likely to be a hit.

 

You are right, and I am not arguing against that.  

[LookitsPuck]

In August, games vs. lefty starters:

• 8/3 - Joey Cantill - 4 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 4 SO, 0 BB
• 8/10 - Tyler Alexander (Rasmussen used as opener) - 4 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 3 SO, 2 BB
• 8/11 - Jeffrey Springs - 5 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 8 SO, 0 BB
• 8/14 - DJ Herz - 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 5 SO, 2 BB
• 8/19 - David Peterson - 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 8 SO, 1 BB
• 8/20 - Jose Quintana - 5 IP, 7 ER, 8 H, 3 SO, 2 BB
• 8/21 - Sean Manaea - 7 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 9 SO, 0 BB
• 8/24 - Framber Valdez - 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 8 SO, 1 BB
• 8/25 - Yusei Kikuchi - 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 2 H, 4 SO, 3 BB

50 IP, 25 ER, 4.50 ERA, 47 H, 11 BB, 1.16 WHIP, 52 SO

But without the Quintana shellacking, it's a much more pedestrian 43 IP, 18 ER, 3.78 ERA, 1.068 WHIP. 

I'd also want to go back and see what their numbers are against relievers. 

That said, Westy was a reverse splits kind of guy *this year*, but even still he had a 759 OPS against them. Mateo had a 799 OPS against them. You lose both of those guys and not only does your defense take a step back, but also performance against lefties bottoms out.

Here are the rest of the regulars right now vs. lefties:

• Adley: 930 OPS (342 AVG)
• Gunnar: 857 (260)
• Mountcastle: 786 (290)
• Eloy: 622 (264)
• O'Hearn: 548 (233)
• Holliday: 518 (138)
• Urias: 750 (257)
• Santander: 811 (222)
• Slater: 563 (200)
• Cowser: 694 (243)
• Rivera: 608 (211)
• Mullins: 431 (154)

And here was the lineup yesterday and their numbers against lefties:

• Slater: 563 (200)
• Adley: 930 OPS (342 AVG)
• Gunnar: 857 (260)
• Santander: 811 (222)
• Eloy: 622 (264)
• Cowser: 694 (243)
• Rivera: 608 (211)
• Urias: 750 (257)
• Holliday: 518 (138)

Obviously Adley hasn't been hitting well lately. And aside from a 1 week stretch in August, Gunnar isn't producing like he did in previous months. Santander has been ice cold lately minus that granny (which was against a righty!). Cowser and Holliday are rookies, so it's expected they're going to struggle and have to make adjustments. Urias has been solid especially lately. Both Slater and Eloy have cooled off after starting off gangbusters. Rivera can't hit. 

Basically, you've got half your lineup that are either automatic outs or substandard against lefties.

It all comes down to the top of the lineup just sucking lately. You can't expect the bottom of the lineup or a pinch hitter to save the day late in ball games.

[waroriole]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Does anyone think for a minute that this is a fair representation of what the offense actually is?  

It’s a bit exaggerated but this is what this offense has been for 2+ months. Boom or bust. It’s like watching Duquette teams again. 

[LookitsPuck]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Does anyone think for a minute that this is a fair representation of what the offense actually is?  

It's interesting to look at the R/G by month

• April: 157R, 29G - 5.4
• May: 118, 26 - 4.5
• June: 163, 29 - 5.6
• July: 115, 25 - 4.6
• August: 105, 23 - 4.6

With the injuries this team has had, I don't think we'll see April or June numbers. Those were the ceiling.

The 4.6 R/G seems more like it. Right now, their R/G is identical to the 2023 club (4.98).

So is this offense...bad? No. It is struggling? If we look at the last 10 games, there were three offensive outbursts (10 against the Red Sox, 9 against the Mets, 7 against the Astros), the other 7? 18 runs total. 

If we look at the 10 games before that, it was more balanced. So, it's possible that this is just a bad stretch against good teams (Red Sox, Mets, Astros). But I think folks need to realize that we're most likely not going to see April/June again. There are too many injuries (both nagging ones like Mounty and Ceddy has as well as more medium/long term ones in Westy and Mateo). 

I'd really like to see Mayo take Eloy's ABs at this point. This club really needs a jolt against lefties and while there is no guarantee that Mayo will hit if called back up again, you'd rather have the upside. 

With this offense, this club really needs Burnes to get back on track. Otherwise, the other 4 games are going to be a gamble (Suarez, Kremer, Povich, Irvin). 

Edited August 26 by LookitsPuck

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, LookitsPuck said:

It's interesting to look at the R/G by month

• April: 157R, 29G - 5.4
• May: 118, 26 - 4.5
• June: 163, 29 - 5.6
• July: 115, 25 - 4.6
• August: 105, 23 - 4.6

With the injuries this team has had, I don't think we'll see April or June numbers. Those were the ceiling.

The 4.6 R/G seems more like it. Right now, their R/G is identical to the 2023 club (4.98).

So is this offense...bad? No. It is struggling? If we look at the last 10 games, there were three offensive outbursts (10 against the Red Sox, 9 against the Mets, 7 against the Astros), the other 7? 18 runs total. 

If we look at the 10 games before that, it was more balanced. So, it's possible that this is just a bad stretch against good teams (Red Sox, Mets, Astros). But I think folks need to realize that we're most likely not going to see April/June again. There are too many injuries (both nagging ones like Mounty and Ceddy has as well as more medium/long term ones in Westy and Mateo). 

I'd really like to see Mayo take Eloy's ABs at this point. This club really needs a jolt against lefties and while there is no guarantee that Mayo will hit if called back up again, you'd rather have the upside. 

Yes, I don't think this current past week represents who this team really is, either.