Cowser BOMB in the 8th - biggest HR of the season

[Just Regular]

Austin Wells still cold - now at 282 OPS last 14 days, but his team is going to win the division.

It looks like Luis Gil last scheduled turn is the Skenes matchup Saturday.

fWAR this morning gives Cowser a 3.9-3.4 edge on Wells.    Gil at 2.6 there, tied with Cade Smith who will be a lot more famous in a month if things go well for Cleveland.

rWAR at Cowser 2.8, Wells 2.7, so closer there.

Fun can to kick on fWAR and rWAR - most of us watch Cowser every day.    This feel like a 3-win season or a 4-win season?    Performers start to get awfully scarce around that part of the curve.

 

[Aristotelian]

50 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Austin Wells still cold - now at 282 OPS last 14 days, but his team is going to win the division.

It looks like Luis Gil last scheduled turn is the Skenes matchup Saturday.

fWAR this morning gives Cowser a 3.9-3.4 edge on Wells.    Gil at 2.6 there, tied with Cade Smith who will be a lot more famous in a month if things go well for Cleveland.

rWAR at Cowser 2.8, Wells 2.7, so closer there.

Fun can to kick on fWAR and rWAR - most of us watch Cowser every day.    This feel like a 3-win season or a 4-win season?    Performers start to get awfully scarce around that part of the curve.

 

Vegas has Gil at something like -200. 

[e16bball]

4 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Fun can to kick on fWAR and rWAR - most of us watch Cowser every day.    This feel like a 3-win season or a 4-win season?    Performers start to get awfully scarce around that part of the curve.

I’d have to say it feels like a 3 win season to me. 

On the one hand, I think Fangraphs maybe slightly overvalues Colton’s defense as compared to what I see. But I also think that is more accurate than the B-R formulation, which treats him as a (just slightly) negative value defender. Which feels way off, particularly given that they’re knocking him for playing LF in OPACY. That just flatly misses the script.

But on the other hand, the problem with valuing Colton’s season is the timing of his production. Which WAR, by core concept, assumes will be generally smooth. Unfortunately, Colton’s production has not been not smooth. His WPA is -2.65, which is 198th out of 200 batters with 400+ PAs. It seems virtually impossible for a guy with a 120 wRC+ to hurt his team that much, and indeed, his “clutch” rating on Fangraphs is dead last — not just among those 200 hitters this year, but among all 805 hitters that have had 400 PAs in a season since COVID. 

The numbers are just brutal, but at the bottom of it, Colton had an .846 OPS in low/medium leverage PAs this year. In high leverage PAs, he had a .433 OPS, with 32 Ks to just 4 BBs. 
 

I’m hopeful that more experience will remedy some of this with him. Colton is a kid who really badly wants to succeed and really badly doesn’t want to let anyone down. You could even hear it last night, when Hollander asked about the huge HR — his immediate response was I’m glad it happened after the previous half-inning, because there was a ball I think I should have caught but I didn’t. I think failure tends to snowball for him, as it did when he first came up and as it has in these clutch situations. A few more big hits like that bomb last night and maybe the grip on the bat lightens a little in the bigger moments. 

But with all that said, it’s tough for a season to feel like an elite 4-win type campaign when you were a black hole in the moments where the team needed a hero. Those elite 4-win type guys are the heroes. Colton just wasn’t quite there yet this year.

Edited 3 hours ago by e16bball

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

He’s got to lead the team in 425+ foot homers, even though Santander and Gunnar have hit many more homers this year.   

I was correct!

Cowser 7 (443, 439, 438, 432, 430, 430, 425)

Santander 6 (442, 440, 437, 436, 431, 425)

Henderson 1 (430)

It’s kind of surprising that Gunnar only has one homer of 425+.   Mullins and Mountcastle each have two.  Cowser and Mountcastle are tied for longest O’s homer of the year, at 443.  

[Mooreisbetter27]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I was correct!

Cowser 7 (443, 439, 438, 432, 430, 430, 425)

Santander 6 (442, 440, 437, 436, 431, 425)

Henderson 1 (430)

It’s kind of surprising that Gunnar only has one homer of 425+.   Mullins and Mountcastle each have two.  Cowser and Mountcastle are tied for longest O’s homer of the year, at 443.  

I've said it before, but Cowser does not get many wall scrapers.  His bombs are usually way gone.  

[Frobby]

48 minutes ago, e16bball said:

On the one hand, I think Fangraphs maybe slightly overvalues Colton’s defense as compared to what I see. But I also think that is more accurate than the B-R formulation, which treats him as a (just slightly) negative value defender. Which feels way off, particularly given that they’re knocking him for playing LF in OPACY. That just flatly misses the script.

I think you know this, but for others: dWAR is a combination of a value for the defensive position a player plays, and the player’s skill at that position.  Cowser was given -3 runs for the position he plays (primarily LF), and +2 for being a better than average defender at those positions.  That nets out to -1 runs, or -0.1 wins on the WAR scale.   Hence, Cowser gets a dWAR of -0.1 despite being better than average at the positions he plays.   And I agree with you that while LF may be an “easy” position in most ballparks, it’s not so easy at OPACY, and hence dWAR may not be entirely fair to him.   

I agree with your other comments about Cowser’s poor performance in high leverage situations detracting from his WAR numbers.   Hopefully that will improve as he gains experience.  
 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, e16bball said:

 His WPA is -2.65, which is 198th out of 200 batters with 400+ PAs. It seems virtually impossible for a guy with a 120 wRC+ to hurt his team that much, and indeed, his “clutch” rating on Fangraphs is dead last — not just among those 200 hitters this year, but among all 805 hitters that have had 400 PAs in a season since COVID. 

 

Wow, that's pretty crazy and does show how much Cowser has struggled in high pressure situations. 

[TomDominick]

13 hours ago, Orioles West said:

I did like the end of KB’s call on the home run, “Ain’t the milk cold?”

An homage to the great O's announcer Chuck Thompson's "Ain't the beer cold"?!

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, TomDominick said:

An homage to the great O's announcer Chuck Thompson's "Ain't the beer cold"?!

Without a doubt.   

[Bahama O's Fan]

Ever since seeing Cowser in spring training, I've been impressed. He looked better than most of the young hitters: Stowers, Westburg, Kjerstad, etc... When he catches one, look out. 

[Orioles West]

44 minutes ago, TomDominick said:

An homage to the great O's announcer Chuck Thompson's "Ain't the beer cold"?!

Which is why I thought it was cool. I guess if the whole “Moo” thing is going to be a brand, may as well advance it with some Chuck Thompson love!

[Malike]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

He’s got to lead the team in 425+ foot homers, even though Santander and Gunnar have hit many more homers this year.   

I wish I could find out how many homers Santander has hit in an at-bat after he was brushed back into a pushup. I know it's more than 3 and he certainly leads the team.

[Yossarian]

For the record and to maintain my status as a "no fun guy" - I don't like the bovine references, puns, costumes/apparel, the "moo-ing", and all the other stuff playing on the fact that Cowser's surname happens to begin with "cow".

I dislike it as much as I dislike Gunnar Henderson's walk-up music when he comes to bat. 

Alternatively,  I do like that they call Greg Olsen "otter".  That dude legitimately looks like an otter. 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Yossarian said:

For the record and to maintain my status as a "no fun guy" - I don't like the bovine references, puns, costumes/apparel, the "moo-ing", and all the other stuff playing on the fact that Cowser's surname happens to begin with "cow".

I dislike it as much as I dislike Gunnar Henderson's walk-up music when he comes to bat. 

Alternatively,  I do like that they call Greg Olsen "otter".  That dude legitimately looks like an otter. 

You know what I hate?  That whistling noise they play at Yankee Stadium whenever an opposing batter strikes out.  

[Malike]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You know what I hate?  That whistling noise they play at Yankee Stadium whenever an opposing batter strikes out.  

I wonder what WB Mason pays for them to use that jingle. It's actually the PC Richard's and Son jingle. Still wonder if they get paid to use it.

Edited 1 hour ago by Malike