What is the O's magic number for home field advantage for the 1st round of the playoffs?

[wildcard]

I have it at 2.   Two O's wins in the last 5 games or two Tigers losses or some combination of the two.

Is that right?

[Sanfran327]

Seems right at a glance. We hold the TB over KC, but not Detroit. Still, neither of them can get to 89 wins, so 2 feels right.

[Spy Fox]

Yes, that is right. They can clinch it tonight with a W and a Tigers L. 

[e16bball]

The magic number is also one against the Royals.

I’m not sure how that factors in to the “overall” magic number, but if we lose out, two DET losses alone wouldn’t be enough — we’d also then need a Royals loss. 

[MurphDogg]

Just to be completely thorough, it is also 1 over KC.

If KC wins out and the O's lose out, KC can get to 88 wins.

[Fiver6565]

Yeah we hold the tiebreaker w/ KC but not w/ the Tigers, so the KC number is one less since a tie gives it to us.  But its 2 to eliminate all doubt of having home field.

[RVAOsFan]

Would be nice to get that home field advantage locked up so we can start lining up the starters for the WC series.  Burnes starting tomorrow night, I don't know if giving him a short start or skipping him all together would be more beneficial. 

[da_dirty_bird]

The playoffs start next Tuesday. Burnes would be on 4 days rest and Eflin on 5 days rest. We should be fine for those 2 games.

[Sanity Check]

1 hour ago, RVAOsFan said:

Would be nice to get that home field advantage locked up so we can start lining up the starters for the WC series.  Burnes starting tomorrow night, I don't know if giving him a short start or skipping him all together would be more beneficial. 

Are you suggesting that if we were in the playoffs but still fighting for home field advantage, that we would somehow not line up our pitching to give us the best shot in the playoffs regardless of where we were playing.  At this point, any team that's in, regardless of where they will play, should be lining up their best starters to be pitching in the first games of the playoffs.

And, while I am not optimistic about our chances in the playoffs because of our inconsistent hitting and questionable bullpen, I am much happier that we don't have a bye this year, as it did us no favors last year.  We finished the regular season flat last year, had a week off, and never got anything going in the playoffs.

My biggest hope right now is that, maybe with the pressure now being off, guys will loosen up and start playing better, and have it carry over into the post-season.   They've been way too tight lately, and maybe not having to win will result in better results.

[casadeozo]

So what needs to happen so we avoid the Tigers in the WC round. They have owned us the past 2 weeks and they just called up Jobe to be another arm we can’t hit. 

[RavensNOsGuy]

6 minutes ago, casadeozo said:

So what needs to happen so we avoid the Tigers in the WC round. They have owned us the past 2 weeks and they just called up Jobe to be another arm we can’t hit. 

Root for the Royals to play well and the Tigers to drop a game or two.

[Malike]

6 minutes ago, casadeozo said:

So what needs to happen so we avoid the Tigers in the WC round. They have owned us the past 2 weeks and they just called up Jobe to be another arm we can’t hit. 

They were set up to sweep them in Baltimore, I'm not afraid of the Tigers. 

[RVAOsFan]

6 minutes ago, Sanity Check said:

Are you suggesting that if we were in the playoffs but still fighting for home field advantage, that we would somehow not line up our pitching to give us the best shot in the playoffs regardless of where we were playing.  At this point, any team that's in, regardless of where they will play, should be lining up their best starters to be pitching in the first games of the playoffs.

And, while I am not optimistic about our chances in the playoffs because of our inconsistent hitting and questionable bullpen, I am much happier that we don't have a bye this year, as it did us no favors last year.  We finished the regular season flat last year, had a week off, and never got anything going in the playoffs.

My biggest hope right now is that, maybe with the pressure now being off, guys will loosen up and start playing better, and have it carry over into the post-season.   They've been way too tight lately, and maybe not having to win will result in better results.

I do think that home field advantage is important but we should have our best starters available for the WC Series.  With Burnes scheduled to start tomorrow night that puts him on 4 days rest for WC opener.  If we clinch home field tonight would it make more sense to skip Burnes start all together and let him rest up for WC start or give him a shorter start to avoid getting rusty?

[theobird]

17 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:

I do think that home field advantage is important but we should have our best starters available for the WC Series.  With Burnes scheduled to start tomorrow night that puts him on 4 days rest for WC opener.  If we clinch home field tonight would it make more sense to skip Burnes start all together and let him rest up for WC start or give him a shorter start to avoid getting rusty?

I’d skip his start and have him throw a bullpen session in between. 

[Fiver6565]

There is no reason for Burnes to skip a start this week; if he was due this weekend, it would of course be a different story.  But him throwing tonight/tomorrow keeps him on a regular routine, which is more valuable than extra rest for a P of his caliber.

And if you want 5 days rest for your WC starters instead of 4, just flip flop Eflin and Burnes for Games 1 and 2.  Eflin would be on 5 on Tuesday, and Burnes 5 on Wednesday.  They are both clearly starting those games, does it really matter that much who goes first?  This allows one extra day of rest, with neither of them missing a start on the way to clinching home field for that series.