Orioles vs Tigers/KC (Wild Card series)

[KojiSplit]

24 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

PITCHING

Here are the Top 3 pitchers for each potential matchup and relievers:

• Tigers
  • Skubal (LHP) - 2.39 ERA
  • Olson (RHP) - 3.49
  • Holton (LHP, Opener) - 2.22 + Brant Hurter (LHP, Bulk Relief) - 2.61 OR Ty Madden (RHP, Bulk) - 3.60
  • Relievers: 3.57
• Royals
  • Lugo (RHP) - 3.03 ERA
  • Ragans (LHP) - 3.14
  • Wacha (RHP) - 3.28
  • Brady Singer (RHP, 3.73) could also take a spot depending on if/when Lugo and/or Ragans pitched last.
  • Relievers: 4.24
• Twins
  • Lopez (RHP) - 4.11
  • Ober (RHP) - 3.94
  • Woods-Richardson (RHP) - 4.17
  • Relievers: 4.07
• Mariners
  • Gilbert (RHP) - 3.33
  • Kirby (RHP) - 3.53
  • Miller (RHP) - 2.94 or Woo (RHP) - 3.02
  • Relievers: 3.67

If we are just looking at pitching, I'd most want to face the Twins or the Mariners. The Twins are RHP heavy and their bullpen isn't amazing, and the Mariners are really good but also heavy RHP with a so-so offense, but their relievers are great.

I want nothing to do with the Tigers. Way too much LHP and they're a bad matchup with an excellent bullpen and stellar defense. The Royals are second, but they have a porous bullpen.

For pitching, in order of who I'd want to face most to least:

Twins, Mariners, Royals, Tigers

OFFENSE

For RS/G:

• Tigers - 4.2
  • A reasonably well-balanced lineup with no standouts like Witt, but they do have guys like Greene, Meadows, Carpenter, Vierling and a bunch of other young hitters. 
• Royals - 4.6
  • With The Pasquatch out, they're essentially the Witt and Perez show, otherwise a so-so lineup.
• Twins - 4.6
  • Very well balanced lineup with 7 hitters with an OPS over 700, 2 approaching 900 OPS (Correa, Buxton). They're the strongest to me.
• Mariners - 4.2
  • No regulars with an OPS over 750, and the 3 around that OPS are Raleigh (734), Arozarena (740), and Julio (739).

For hitting, in order of who I'd want to face most to least:

Mariners, Tigers, Royals, Twins

DEFENSE

If you go by cumulative dWAR, the Royals are the standouts with the Tigers behind them. 

In order (most to least):

Twins, Tigers, Mariners, Royals

OVERALL

• Mariners have the worst offense, solid defense, and a heavy RHP starting pitching with a solid bullpen
• Twins have the worst defense, a so-so bullpen, a so-so rotation, but an excellent offense
• Royals have an excellent defense, an excellent rotation, but the worst bullpen and a very good offense
• Tigers have a very good defense, excellent bullpen, excellent starting pitchers/strategy, and a so-so offense

In order (most to least):

Mariners, Twins, Royals, Tigers

The M’s have pretty much no chance of even being in the playoffs but rep given for putting this together.

[LGOrioles]

3 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

Their pitching is excellent. So even if they only score 3-4 runs/game, that's been enough.

That’s fair, was just talking about the lineup though. 

[Moose Milligan]

30 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

PITCHING

Here are the Top 3 pitchers for each potential matchup and relievers:

• Tigers
  • Skubal (LHP) - 2.39 ERA
  • Olson (RHP) - 3.49
  • Holton (LHP, Opener) - 2.22 + Brant Hurter (LHP, Bulk Relief) - 2.61 OR Ty Madden (RHP, Bulk) - 3.60
  • Relievers: 3.57
• Royals
  • Lugo (RHP) - 3.03 ERA
  • Ragans (LHP) - 3.14
  • Wacha (RHP) - 3.28
  • Brady Singer (RHP, 3.73) could also take a spot depending on if/when Lugo and/or Ragans pitched last.
  • Relievers: 4.24
• Twins
  • Lopez (RHP) - 4.11
  • Ober (RHP) - 3.94
  • Woods-Richardson (RHP) - 4.17
  • Relievers: 4.07
• Mariners
  • Gilbert (RHP) - 3.33
  • Kirby (RHP) - 3.53
  • Miller (RHP) - 2.94 or Woo (RHP) - 3.02
  • Relievers: 3.67

If we are just looking at pitching, I'd most want to face the Twins or the Mariners. The Twins are RHP heavy and their bullpen isn't amazing, and the Mariners are really good but also heavy RHP with a so-so offense, but their relievers are great.

I want nothing to do with the Tigers. Way too much LHP and they're a bad matchup with an excellent bullpen and stellar defense. The Royals are second, but they have a porous bullpen.

For pitching, in order of who I'd want to face most to least:

Twins, Mariners, Royals, Tigers

OFFENSE

For RS/G:

• Tigers - 4.2
  • A reasonably well-balanced lineup with no standouts like Witt, but they do have guys like Greene, Meadows, Carpenter, Vierling and a bunch of other young hitters. 
• Royals - 4.6
  • With The Pasquatch out, they're essentially the Witt and Perez show, otherwise a so-so lineup.
• Twins - 4.6
  • Very well balanced lineup with 7 hitters with an OPS over 700, 2 approaching 900 OPS (Correa, Buxton). They're the strongest to me.
• Mariners - 4.2
  • No regulars with an OPS over 750, and the 3 around that OPS are Raleigh (734), Arozarena (740), and Julio (739).

For hitting, in order of who I'd want to face most to least:

Mariners, Tigers, Royals, Twins

DEFENSE

If you go by cumulative dWAR, the Royals are the standouts with the Tigers behind them. 

In order (most to least):

Twins, Tigers, Mariners, Royals

OVERALL

• Mariners have the worst offense, solid defense, and a heavy RHP starting pitching with a solid bullpen
• Twins have the worst defense, a so-so bullpen, a so-so rotation, but an excellent offense
• Royals have an excellent defense, an excellent rotation, but the worst bullpen and a very good offense
• Tigers have a very good defense, excellent bullpen, excellent starting pitchers/strategy, and a so-so offense

In order (most to least):

Mariners, Twins, Royals, Tigers

Props for putting this together.  

I still would prefer the Royals over the Tigers as the Tigers on quite a roll.  I don't think the Mariners are going to make it, or the Twins.

The more I go along, I think having a great defense and a great bullpen in the postseason matters the most. Big errors/misplays in a short series can be magnified, IMO, and if you can shorten a game by a few innings due to a lockdown bullpen, even better.

That said, the Rangers last year had a bad overall bullpen but that bullpen got hot at the right time.  I'm glad to see KC has the worst bullpen of the group and I hope it's ice cold if we meet them next week.

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, Hallas said:

We're better than both teams.  I'd probably prefer KC though I have PTSD from them sweeping us.

 

Didn't we beat Verlander/Scherzer in the playoffs during our last playoff window?

Three Cy Youngs and three losses.

I still LOL at Joba Chamberlain 

[Baseball fandom]

If it' s Detroit I almost rather just keep Eflin and Burns for games 2 and 3 and sacrifice game 1 against Skubal.  He is a beast and would hate to lose 2-1. Pitch anyone game 1 and save the 2 best for games 2 and 3. I know  flawed logic but just trying to give them their best chance in a 3 game series

Edited 2 hours ago by Baseball fandom

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, JR Oriole said:

Tigers just tied it up.  This team is absolutely terrifying.  None of their hitters have any nerves at all.  Problem is, they will sweep the White Sox and KC has to come to Atlanta where the games will matter a lot.  So I don't see how we can avoid Detroit. Only question is where we play them.

Not going to lie, Tigers scare me more than KC with the way they've been playing and their bullpen.

[SteveA]

37 minutes ago, Baseball fandom said:

If it' s Detroit I almost rather just keep Eflin and Burns for games 2 and 3 and sacrifice game 1 against Skubal.  He is a beast and would hate to lose 2-1. Pitch anyone game 1 and save the 2 best for games 2 and 3. I know  flawed logic but just trying to give them their best chance in a 3 game series

First of all, that is not how a championship team operates.   You play to win, not tremble in fear of losing.   

Besides, aren't you on record in multiple posts, over and over again,  saying there is absolutely no way the Orioles will win a game in the postseason?   So what does strategy matter when they are trying to do the impossible.   

[turtlebowl]

34 minutes ago, Baseball fandom said:

If it' s Detroit I almost rather just keep Eflin and Burns for games 2 and 3 and sacrifice game 1 against Skubal.  He is a beast and would hate to lose 2-1. Pitch anyone game 1 and save the 2 best for games 2 and 3. I know  flawed logic but just trying to give them their best chance in a 3 game series

Not really that flawed.  I have thought about Eflin going game 1 because if you lose that one I would want Burns going game 2.  If you win that first game somehow then how awesome is it to have Burns next.  If you split the first 2 then you have Kremer and hopefully a rested bullpen for game 3.  

[Sports Guy]

People being so afraid of the Tigers is laughable to me.

They aren’t a bad team and Skubal is obviously an issue but they are young, inexperienced and not overwhelmingly talented. 

[SteveA]

Is 2024 Skubal that much better than 2014 Price, 2014 Verlander, or 2014 Scherzer?    Or 2013 Kershaw who had a 1.83 ERA in the regular season and was 0-2 with a 6.30 ERA in the postseason.

We're trying to win a championship.   Go out and beat the best to do it.   And if we fail... well, that's the way it goes.

[LGOrioles]

48 minutes ago, Baseball fandom said:

If it' s Detroit I almost rather just keep Eflin and Burns for games 2 and 3 and sacrifice game 1 against Skubal.  He is a beast and would hate to lose 2-1. Pitch anyone game 1 and save the 2 best for games 2 and 3. I know  flawed logic but just trying to give them their best chance in a 3 game series

I believe in the 6 games against Detroit, they scored 9 ER in 36.2 innings that were pitched by Burnes, Eflin, Cano, Dominguez, Coulombe, Webb, Perez, Akin, and Soto). Their 3 best hitters (Greene, Carpenter, Meadows) are all much better against RHP’s than LHP’s and their 4th best hitter (Vierking) is better against RHP’s too. 

They could easily have a LHP face the top of their order pretty much from the 5th inning on if they wanted to, with Perez, Coulombe, Soto, Akin, and potentially Povich in the pen. Webb also is better against LHP’s. Potentially making Hinch PH for Carpenter somewhat early in the game would take away by far their best hitter. 

No way I’m conceding game 1 when they’ve had just as much trouble against the Orioles better pitchers. 

[Spy Fox]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

People being so afraid of the Tigers is laughable to me.

They aren’t a bad team and Skubal is obviously an issue but they are young, inexperienced and not overwhelmingly talented. 

You're not cowering in fear from MOO bats Matt Vierling and Wenceel Perez? 

I'm nervous the Tigers pitching, but feel pretty good about the overall matchup because I think they just don't have a playoff caliber offense. They are going to have the highest K%, and lowest AVG, lowest OBP, and lowest SLG of any playoff team. In many cases by a wide margin. They are only good on one side of the ball and we have the ability to be good on both. 

[JR Oriole]

17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

People being so afraid of the Tigers is laughable to me.

They aren’t a bad team and Skubal is obviously an issue but they are young, inexperienced and not overwhelmingly talented. 

I feel like a lot of us may have said the same thing about the 89 win 2014 Royals who played .630 ball over the last 1/3 of that season.  In hindsight, we recognize them as a very good and well balanced team.  But I don't remember anyone being that worried about them at the time heading into the postseason and I don't know that many of their players had even been in the postseason before that year.  Maybe Shields and Infante, but not sure who else.

Hell, they were down 7-3 to Oakland in the 8th inning of the one game playoff.  And their pixie dust lasted all the way until Bumgarner in Game 7 of the WS.

[Aristotelian]

6 minutes ago, JR Oriole said:

I feel like a lot of us may have said the same thing about the 89 win 2014 Royals who played .630 ball over the last 1/3 of that season.  In hindsight, we recognize them as a very good and well balanced team.  But I don't remember anyone being that worried about them at the time heading into the postseason and I don't know that many of their players had even been in the postseason before that year.  Maybe Shields and Infante, but not sure who else.

Hell, they were down 7-3 to Oakland in the 8th inning of the one game playoff.  And their pixie dust lasted all the way until Bumgarner in Game 7 of the WS.

A lot of people said the same thing about us last year, and they were right.

[Just Regular]

 

14 minutes ago, JR Oriole said:

Hell, they were down 7-3 to Oakland in the 8th inning of the one game playoff.  And their pixie dust lasted all the way until Bumgarner in Game 7 of the WS.

Shouldn't have let Jon Lester go FOURTH time through the order.     Hoo boy has the game changed in 10 years.