How does Povich fit into your 2025 plans?

[CTBear]

He hit 96 on the gun in his final start. His September was really strong and he made the postseason roster. He pitched very well at Camden Yards too. I’m hoping he can build off of some of that success and win a rotation spot out of spring training. 

[theobird]

Povich will be in our rotation next year, book it. Kid came on strong down the stretch, he vastly improved his command and his stuff plays. Get used to seeing Povich, he’s gonna be a mainstay for years to come

[Sports Guy]

44 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

That's pretty good for his rookie season, no? I'm a bit confused by the characterization of his peripheral stats not being great.

Yep, basically agree with this. With the favorite undoubtedly being Povich, and Rogers / Suárez (bullpen) / McDermott next up when the inevitable injury hits. 

That one particular stat is good..but his K rate, Bb rate, missed bats, many of his statcast stats, etc…not so good.

[LookitsPuck]

29 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That one particular stat is good..but his K rate, Bb rate, missed bats, many of his statcast stats, etc…not so good.

Maybe so, but his Statcast is already better than Rogers, as are his peripherals. Especially if you look at the starts after being called back up. 8 starts since being called back up:

4.25 ERA, 3.47 FIP, 1.20 WHIP, 9.4 SO/9, 2.3 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9

Those are solid as all get out. And are very much inline with what he did in AAA this year!

Kid has positive run value for his 4 seamer, sweeper, sinker and his change has upside. If he can consistently get that change where he wants, he’s got middle of the rotation stuff.

[LookitsPuck]

53 minutes ago, theobird said:

Povich will be in our rotation next year, book it. Kid came on strong down the stretch, he vastly improved his command and his stuff plays. Get used to seeing Povich, he’s gonna be a mainstay for years to come

One of Elias’s better trades, tbh. Half a season of Jorge Lopez as a reliever for Cano, Povich, Nunez, Rojas. Right up there with the Bradish trade.

[RVAOsFan]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Assuming we get an established starter to go along with Eflin, GRod, and Kremer, that leaves Suarez, Rogers, and Povich competing for the 5th spot.   Suarez has earned the edge.  If Suarez is the 5th starter, then one of Roger’s/Povich becomes a swing man in the pen with the other providing depth in Norfolk.  Povich has options and I believe Rogers does as well.

 

 

This is my thought process regarding the pitching staff next season, ideally we resign Burnes but if not another TOR like Snell or Fried need to be signed this offseason.  Eflin GRod and Kremer are a really solid 2,3,4 the 5 spot is open to competition but realistically there will probably be some injuries or fatigue that require all of these guys contributing. 

[RVAOsFan]

13 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Povich was up and down at this level this year. 
 

His peripheral stats aren’t great…His xERA was 4.02. He has some upside but I’m unsure how much. He ended the year strong. In 27.2 IP in September, Povich had a 2.60 ERA, 10.4 K rate, 2.6 BB rate and only 16 hits allowed.

Right now, we have 3 guaranteed starters in GRod, Kremer and Eflin. Rogers and Povich are also possible but I can’t imagine those 5 are our starters next year. 

Elias likes both of the lefties, as he made it a point to trade for them.

So, where does that leave Povich?  Is he trade bait? Is he depth? Is he a starter for us next year?

If you are going to make a major trade this offseason, I would figure Povich and/or Kjerstad will be involved in the deal.

What would you do with him?

Last offseason with John (I am so poor) Angelos still in charge, along with the depth in the upper minor leagues it made sense to make a trade for someone like Burnes.  I don't think Elias should be looking at making a trade this offseason using any of our young talent.  It is time for Rubenstein to open the checkbook and land us a TOR starter and a big bat.  The days of having too many prospects is over, I want to see us have some solid depth options in AAA if we need it.

[LookitsPuck]

4 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:

Last offseason with John (I am so poor) Angelos still in charge, along with the depth in the upper minor leagues it made sense to make a trade for someone like Burnes.  I don't think Elias should be looking at making a trade this offseason using any of our young talent.  It is time for Rubenstein to open the checkbook and land us a TOR starter and a big bat.  The days of having too many prospects is over, I want to see us have some solid depth options in AAA if we need it.

Yeah, Elias unloaded a ton of prospects/young players this year, tbh.

Hall, Ortiz/draft pick for Burnes.

Johnson and Chace for Soto (ugh)

Etzel, Baumeister, and Horvath for Eflin

Stowers and Norby for Rogers

I get that there are injuries, but if Elias just dabbled in FA a bit more this offseason and shored up the bullpen and rotation they wouldn’t have needed to do at least 2 of those trades. 

And while all of those guys except for Burnes (he’ll net a comp pick) are under control through next year (Soto, Eflin) and the year after (Rogers), I’d argue you could have used those guys in the offseason and/or for yourself if you just went the FA route. 

I do think Elias gambled too much at the start of the year. With Bradish hurt back in February, that really left Burnes, Grayson, Kremer, Means, Wells, and Irvin. Well, Means had a setback and had an injury history, Wells had an injury history, and even though Suarez was a depth signing, the depth wasn’t all that great. There were plenty of options available in February to reduce the need to ever let it get to a spot to desperation sign Rogers, tbh.

 

[DirtyBird]

17 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:

Last offseason with John (I am so poor) Angelos still in charge, along with the depth in the upper minor leagues it made sense to make a trade for someone like Burnes.  I don't think Elias should be looking at making a trade this offseason using any of our young talent.  It is time for Rubenstein to open the checkbook and land us a TOR starter and a big bat.  The days of having too many prospects is over, I want to see us have some solid depth options in AAA if we need it.

Yep - Eflin was perfectly reasonable as a free agent prior to 2023.

[waroriole]

You can’t assume he’ll win a rotation spot, but he’s valuable depth. He should have the opportunity to earn his way into the rotation but make sure to have at least 5 SP who should be better. 

[waroriole]

I think we need to add 2 SP. One TOR SP and one mid/back end guy. I’d prefer to have Povich, Suarez, Rogers, McDermott competing as depth. It’s not like they won’t all get opportunities. 

[interloper]

18 minutes ago, waroriole said:

I think we need to add 2 SP. One TOR SP and one mid/back end guy. I’d prefer to have Povich, Suarez, Rogers, McDermott competing as depth. It’s not like they won’t all get opportunities. 

Agree. Eflin and Grayson are likely to miss some time on the IL with something hopefully minor. Suarez is 35 and who knows. No guarantee that Bradish and Wells are options. 

[e16bball]

I think dropping the cutter was a big development for him. He used that a fair amount (15%) through the end of his ML stint in July, but then they totally shelved it after that. Seems he replaced it primarily with more use of the sweeper, which proved to be a more effective pitch.

After he came back up in August, he had a 4.25 ERA and a 3.47 FIP, which are both very solid numbers for a rookie starter. He did that against a pretty tough slate of opponents, including BOS (x2), DET (x2), LAD, HOU, and MIN. 

More specifically, he had a 6.27 xFIP against RHHs up until August, and the cutter was one of his weapons against them. After coming back up (and discarding the cutter), he had a 3.82 xFIP against RHHs. That’s a game changer, and the next step is probably getting that changeup polished up to be the other weapon against righties.

[LookitsPuck]

13 minutes ago, e16bball said:

I think dropping the cutter was a big development for him. He used that a fair amount (15%) through the end of his ML stint in July, but then they totally shelved it after that. Seems he replaced it primarily with more use of the sweeper, which proved to be a more effective pitch.

After he came back up in August, he had a 4.25 ERA and a 3.47 FIP, which are both very solid numbers for a rookie starter. He did that against a pretty tough slate of opponents, including BOS (x2), DET (x2), LAD, HOU, and MIN. 

More specifically, he had a 6.27 xFIP against RHHs up until August, and the cutter was one of his weapons against them. After coming back up (and discarding the cutter), he had a 3.82 xFIP against RHHs. That’s a game changer, and the next step is probably getting that changeup polished up to be the other weapon against righties.

Incredibly well said. And his start against the Astros final stat line looks worse than how he pitched. Was one bad inning, really. The rest he looked sharp. That said, the Dodgers start stunk, but: it's the Dodgers and it was 1 start.