Snell vs Burnes

[DrinkinWithFermi]

18 hours ago, LookitsPuck said:

If Elias is immediately slotting in Rogers in the rotation, he's off his rocker. Rogers should be looked at as a depth arm because that velocity drop is extremely concerning (he was barely hitting 88-89 in the minors and even in the majors when sent down). Rogers should be in competition for the 5th slot *at best*. 

I don't know about "off his rocker," I just think he's confident in our ability to fix him.

[Sports Guy]

Why do people continue to look at Roger’s velo in the minors while not acknowledging how many more innings he threw in 2024 vs 2023?  His arm could have been tired.  

[Moose Milligan]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Why do people continue to look at Roger’s velo in the minors while not acknowledging how many more innings he threw in 2024 vs 2023?  His arm could have been tired.  

Because no one wants to give the guy the benefit of the doubt on anything.  People just want to rail against what a bad trade it was.

 

[RVAOsFan]

19 hours ago, ChuckS said:

I think Burnes will get 250 and Snell will get at least 200. 

I would take Max Fried at 5/150 over either of them. 

I think I would be happy with any of these 3 guys but I would rank them Burnes, Snell, Fried in preference. 

I would rank Fried higher but I remember he missed some time this season with a forearm injury which makes me really nervous considering what happened to our rotation this past season. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Because no one wants to give the guy the benefit of the doubt on anything.  People just want to rail against what a bad trade it was.

 

Sensible people don't judge a trade when they only have 20% of the relevant data necessary for judging that trade accurately, which is where we are presently with the Rogers deal.

[Moose Milligan]

11 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Sensible people don't judge a trade when they only have 20% of the relevant data necessary for judging that trade accurately, which is where we are presently with the Rogers deal.

Well then a lot of people aren't sensible then.  But I'm sure that's the point you were trying to make  

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

Well then a lot of people aren't sensible then.  But I'm sure that's the point you were trying to make  

Mmmmaybe...

[LookitsPuck]

36 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Why do people continue to look at Roger’s velo in the minors while not acknowledging how many more innings he threw in 2024 vs 2023?  His arm could have been tired.  

If his arm "was tired", the O's should have shut him down. 

The issue is that his velocity wasn't just down in the minors. It was down with the Orioles. 

He was averaging 92 with his 4 seamer with the Marlins, and that dropped to barely hitting 90 with the Orioles dipping below that in his last couple starts and then was under 90 on average in the minors. 

The problem is this: his peripherals and advanced stats were problematic even before the Orioles traded for him. Putting aside the velocity concerns (and potentially injury and/or fatigue), this is why Elias would be off his rocker to immediately pencil him into the rotation. If the O's want to fix him, they can try doing so in the offseason, spring training, and in the minors next year. But you simply can't pencil in a soft tossing lefty into the rotation. You'd be much better off giving Povich that spot from the jump. 

Now, if the O's can get his velocity back up to 93-94 like in 2022-23? Sure, fine. But it'd be irresponsible for the O's to just give him a rotation spot. Hell, his numbers were the Marlins before the trade were problematic: 1.528 WHIP, ~4.50 ERA/FIP, SO/W under 2, and a strikeout rate barely hitting 7. Then you see what he did with the O's: strikeout rate down further, walk rate increased, hit rate up, velocity drop...and you have to ask yourselves:

What did Elias even see in the guy?

[LookitsPuck]

32 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Sensible people don't judge a trade when they only have 20% of the relevant data necessary for judging that trade accurately, which is where we are presently with the Rogers deal.

Sensible people can judge a trade 2 ways: for 2024 and for 2025 and beyond.

For 2024, it actually hurt the major league club. It hurt the depth at 2B, OF, and gave innings to a guy that should have been given to others.

For 2025 and beyond? Well, remains to be seen. But his numbers with the Marlins were lackluster, his peripherals and advanced stats were just as bad as Irvin (and we DFAd him!) and his velocity lost 4mph from right before the trade and he's down 5-6mph since 2022 when he was averaging 94. So, we'll see. I'd love to be wrong.

Edited 1 hour ago by LookitsPuck

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

What did Elias even see in the guy?

It's odd. For all the analytics and data, sometimes it feels like Elias makes moves ignoring a lot of the obvious data. +

Let's take Rogers, Kimbrel, and Soto. All these guys have glaring red flags to even the casual browser of baseball-reference, yet he gave up 4 prospects and over $13 million for the 3 of them. And they performed as poorly as one would have predicted based on their peripherals. 

 

[casadeozo]

If it’s true Burnes is looking for an 8 year deal, I pray the O’s shop elsewhere.

Snell and Walker Buehler on a prove it deal would be ideal IMO.

[LookitsPuck]

Just now, casadeozo said:

If it’s true Burnes is looking for an 8 year deal, I pray the O’s shop elsewhere.

Snell and Walker Buehler on a prove it deal would be ideal IMO.

Snell and Buehler are massively different this offseason. Snell doesn't have anything to prove. He'll get at least a 3-4 year deal worth $35-$40m/year. 

Buehler would be a "prove it" deal. Something like a 1-2 year deal, heavily incentivized. He was out all of 2023 injured, missed most of 2024 and was terrible. 

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, casadeozo said:

If it’s true Burnes is looking for an 8 year deal, I pray the O’s shop elsewhere.

Snell and Walker Buehler on a prove it deal would be ideal IMO.

I would love for the O's to strike quick, grab a guy, and put to bed the notion of Burnes right away. That guy is not signing until late February and it's going to be exhausting for Elias to waste his time chasing him. Just pivot early. 

Get 2 lefties: Fried and Manaea. Boom. 

Fried
Eflin
Grayson
Manaea
Kremer

 

[LookitsPuck]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

I would love for the O's to strike quick, grab a guy, and put to bed the notion of Burnes right away. That guy is not signing until late February and it's going to be exhausting for Elias to waste his time chasing him. Just pivot early. 

Get 2 lefties: Fried and Manaea. Boom. 

Fried
Eflin
Grayson
Manaea
Kremer

 

That'd be amazing, tbh.

[casadeozo]

5 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

Snell and Buehler are massively different this offseason. Snell doesn't have anything to prove. He'll get at least a 3-4 year deal worth $35-$40m/year. 

Buehler would be a "prove it" deal. Something like a 1-2 year deal, heavily incentivized. He was out all of 2023 injured, missed most of 2024 and was terrible. 

Yes there should have been a comma after Snell lol

I’m  well aware of what Snells expectations are