Questioning MacPhail's moves...

[Mackus]

True... but Tillman could have started the season in Bowie and can't even go 5 IP on most nights -- and Patton will spend most the season regaining arm strength and stamina.

Who else among "prospects" is going to get called up any time soon -- by like... July?

Probably none. But that's what the plan was. Bring in "stop gaps" to bide as much time as possible. Only reason Bergesen is up so early is because of the injury to Simon. Those guys could've kept pushing out a 5.75 ERA and they'd be here until July or later.

Hernandez is up around mid-season. I think Arrieta, Tillman, and Matusz all get a chance at a cup of coffee depending on how they do throughout the year.

[Roll Tide]

I agree with this, but I don't think there is anyone we were considering signing (or who would accept a 2-year deal) that was a better than even-money bet to be able to do that in 2010 this past offseason.

Pitchers, obviously, are a volatile breed, especially the mediocre guys who have to accept 1-2 year deals. Projecting what a guy will do in the next season, a few months from when you sign them, is tough enough. Projecting that a guy will still be solid 2 years from now is even harder. Most of these guys have to take short term deals because they aren't reliable, not because they are.

I'm sure one or two of Wolf, Penny, Garland, Looper, Redding, Uehara, and the other similar starters out there will be decent and pitch to that mythical 4.50 ERA over 6 innings most starts in 2010. Another one or two of them will be so bad they are released halfway through the season. But picking which one of those guys will do what is pretty damn near impossible. I'd rather just not play the game, because the upside of picking right isn't worth the downside of picking wrong, IMO, especially not when we will, ideally, have guys forcing them out of the rotation even if they are pitching well.

So far Looper (11 IP 4 ER 3.27 ERA ) has been far better than anything we've gotten out of the bottom three. Wolfe (18 IP 3.93 pretty good 2nd & 3rd starts). Garland has had 2 quality starts out of three.... 13 IP 4 Era over the two, He was hammered the middle start, But thats still better than 4 of the guys in our rotation. Even Kawakami who era is 5.25 has pitched better than the bums we've been using. Simon, & Eaton shouldnt even have been in the majors. Uehara should've been counted as a 4 or 5 starter at best.

[Mackus]

So far Looper (11 IP 4 ER 3.27 ERA ) has been far better than anything we've gotten out of the bottom three. Wolfe (18 IP 3.93 pretty good 2nd & 3rd starts). Garland has had 2 quality starts out of three.... 13 IP 4 Era over the two, He was hammered the middle start, But thats still better than 4 of the guys in our rotation. Even Kawakami who era is 5.25 has pitched better than the bums we've been using. Simon, & Eaton shouldnt even have been in the majors. Uehara should've been counted as a 4 or 5 starter at best.

Two things:

1) I'm talking about these guys for next year, since they all would have required multi-year deals, so what they do this year isn't really relevant

2) Its been 3 starts, really doesn't prove anything either way, good or bad

[Slappy]

Good post, thoughts...

- Adam Eaton was "targeted" during the offseason. Keyword is target but we don't know how much stock he put in Eaton, ever. Did he target him as an Esteban Loaiza resurrection project? Or a place holder for one of the kids? The bottom line is that AM wanted Eaton for whatever reason and mentioned Eaton's quality starts last year as a positive. So far Eaton has been horrendous and everyone but AM knew he would be, even for a place holder.

Agreed. Why Eaton instead of Waters who actually had better numbers, was left-handed, and already was eating a roster spot? Some say either one is just a placeholder, and that's true, but 40-man roster spots are valuable when you are running up and down minor league talent on a consistent basis.

- Mark Hendrickson was signed because "he throws strikes". Meanwhile, Hendrickson leads the team in walks with 9 in 14 IP and needed 102 pitches to get through 5 IP today.

I have no beef with Hendrickson. He's actually pitched ok, and the defense has really let him down in 2 starts. Disagree here.

- Trading Hayden Penn. Despite walking Daniel Cabrera, Penn has not allowed a run in 6 IP. As the pitching looks worse and worse, so will this trade. AM decided to go with the likes of Brian Bass, Adam Eaton and Mark Hendrickson over a 24 year old Penn.

It's easy to question this move right now, with our complete and utter lack of long relief. But at the time it looked like a reasonable deal, especially since it shored up a big hole at backup SS. I think it still looks like a reasonable deal, as Penn's value should be realized from guys like Hernandez eventually. Mildly disagree.

- Keeping Ryan Freel on roster. Yeah, he was a salary dump on the Reds side of the Ramon Hernandez trade. But AM could have eaten Freel's salary and been happy with getting back Justin Turner. Freel is completely redundant on this team and the O's desperately need a power RH bat off the bench. Meanwhile he's been vocal about his limited role on the team. However, I do hope he is OK after getting hit on the head today.

Agreed. Freel made sense at the time, but should have been moved once the Pie, Wigginton, and Andino deals were completed. Who knows, maybe AM was trying to move him (remember the Andino deal was late in ST).

One thing I will say in AM's defense is that at least 2 (and maybe 3_ of them made sense AT THE TIME. Signing Eaton never really made sense.

[Roll Tide]

True... but Tillman could have started the season in Bowie and can't even go 5 IP on most nights -- and Patton will spend most the season regaining arm strength and stamina.

Who else among "prospects" is going to get called up any time soon -- by like... July?

Tillman is not even close IMO....Even though he is highly touted, you my friend are correct. The guy cant seem to get out of the 5th inning against AA guys. He would end up walking a lot of guys at the majors.

[Mackus]

Tillman is not even close IMO....Even though he is highly touted, you my friend are correct. The guy cant seem to get out of the 5th inning against AA guys. He would end up walking a lot of guys at the majors.

Its their first few starts of the season and they are on pretty strict pitch counts. Tillman needs to work on getting deeper, but his problems with that aren't as severe as Hernandez', IMO. He still definitely projects as a starter, and a damn good one.

[Roll Tide]

Its their first few starts of the season and they are on pretty strict pitch counts. Tillman needs to work on getting deeper, but his problems with that aren't as severe as Hernandez', IMO. He still definitely projects as a starter, and a damn good one.

I'm not sure of his pitch counts ...But can you explain last season 135 IP's 28 Starts ?...thats under 5 IP's per start.

Really 4 IPs per start so far is pretty close to what he did last season considering hes now at AAA.

[El Gordo]

I was under the impression that we'd be finally replacing veteran place holders with prospects this season. Bergesen is here. +1 for AM.

But Patton, Tillman and Arrieta look further away than we may have thought. So I am guessing that AM was OK with running Waters, Pauley, Castillo and other AAA fodder out there in addition to the fodder we had in the rotation to start the season.

The plan is taking longer than I expected.

What your alternative option? Wolf Garland Pedro Looper Redding?

[NewMarketSean]

Probably none. But that's what the plan was. Bring in "stop gaps" to bide as much time as possible. Only reason Bergesen is up so early is because of the injury to Simon. Those guys could've kept pushing out a 5.75 ERA and they'd be here until July or later.

Hernandez is up around mid-season. I think Arrieta, Tillman, and Matusz all get a chance at a cup of coffee depending on how they do throughout the year.

OK, then 2010 will have its growing pains as Tillman, Arrieta and Matusz all join the team at some point during the season. So we're looking at 2011 as the year where the planets can possibly align for a playoff run.

I just need to adjust my expectations accordingly.

[El Gordo]

I'm not sure of his pitch counts ...But can you explain last season 135 IP's 28 Starts ?...thats under 5 IP's per start.

Really 4 IPs per start so far is pretty close to what he did last season considering hes now at AAA.

Yes. He was 20 YO in AA.

[Roll Tide]

What your alternative option? Wolf Garland Pedro Looper Redding?

So far Garland , Looper, & Wolf are better than we have after Guthrie. Quite frankly Martinez would sign for 1 year $5 million. He's instantly better than anyone we have but Guthrie. The penny pinching is really sad.

[Roll Tide]

Yes. He was 20 YO in AA.

OK ...so it proves the point that he's really not close to giving you 6IP & 3 runs or less at the majors if he cant pitch more 5 innings at AA. I'm not bashing Tillman, I'm just pointing out the obvious.

[Mark Carver]

So far Garland , Looper are better than we have after Guthrie. Quite frankly Martinez would sign for 1 year $5 million. He's instantly better than anyone we have but Guthrie. The penny pinching is really sad.

The Orioles had the best offer on the table for Looper and Redding, but they preferred to stay in the NL, instead of coming to the AL East. Money was not the issue with Martinez.

[El Gordo]

So far Garland , Looper, & Wolf are better than we have after Guthrie. Quite frankly Martinez would sign for 1 year $5 million. He's instantly better than anyone we have but Guthrie. The penny pinching is really sad.

This is Loopers deal with the Brewers.

Braden Looper rhp

1 year/$4.75M (2009), plus 2010 option

signed by Milwaukee as a free agent 2/13/09

09:$4.75M, 10:$6M

2010 option increases to $6.5M with 30 starts in 2009

$0.75M in performance bonuses (starts 19-30)

if club exercises 2010 option, Looper may decline (no buyout)

if club declines 2010 option, Looper receives a $0.75M buyout ($1M with 30 starts or 180 IP in 2009)

What do you suppose we would have had to offer to get him to pitch here? 3/$15mill? He could make up to $12mil for 2 years. With Milwaukee. Our offer was better than this one to begin with. At some point you have to be realistic.

[Fan4Life]

Bergeson starting tonight, Hill starting a rehab assignment this week. I think AM's plan is on or ahead of schedule.