Poll: Would Grant Green be a reach at No. 5?

[allstar1579]

Would Matzek slot behind both Arrieta and Snyder because of pure youth, and all that is associated with being a HS pitcher, or just the fact that his talent/ceiling level isn't astronomically high?

Tillman, Wieters, and Matusz I can understand, but Snyder?

Just because of age and development time. He has a ceiling right up there with them (especially since he is like Matusz' mini-me) but because he's young and needs a couple years of competition he'd rank behind them. Gotta rank the ones that are about ready now at the top you know?

[allstar1579]

SS or 2B'man, I believe Green would not be a reach at our pick. It's possible that he may not be there at #5.

I have more confidence in him than many however.

I like Green, but I'd feel better taking one of Matzek/Purke/Gibson/White and then taking a shot at Marrero in the 5th (with 3rd round money), or maybe David Nick (UCLA commit) somewhere in the 3-6 range. There is just so much good pitching this year.

[tywright]

Heyman:

Rare draft note not involving phenom Stephen Strasburg: Word is getting out the Orioles are seriously considering USC shortstop Grant Green, an excellent hitter.

Hmmm

[tywright]

I'll say this much, seeing allstar, ty and craw vote "No," makes me want to change my answer. I trust that much in their opinion. Am I a suckup or what?

Anyway, if we do draft Green, I wonder where he'll fall in our Top 10. Obviously, he'd be ranked behind Wieters and Matusz. Would he also be ranked behind Tillman, Arrieta, Rowell and Snyder?

Thanks for the kind words.

My opinion of Green is based solely on what I've heard and read. I've never seen him play. Greg posted some interesting tidbits about Green from his Cape Cod 08 season and that pretty much sold me on Green.

Green has very good range and a good arm and should stay at SS for many years to come, but he'll need to do better than the subpar 17 errors in 41 games this summer. However, in my brief chat with his Cape Cod (Chatham A's) manager, John Schiffner, I was told that the grounds are rough and that Green was getting to a lot of balls that most SS's couldn't. Schiffner compares Green to Evan Longoria, whom he also managed, and loves the kid. A move to third down the road is not out of the question, as he adds weight and loses range

If we could get a solid bat at SS that would be worth the #5 pick. And even if he moves to 3B, that's not a big deal.

Remember, the cream usually rises to the top quicker with solid hitting prospects than it does with pitching prospects. I don't want to sound like Jtrea in regards to not drafting pitching prospects, but we really should be looking at Green with the #5. And SI's Heyman confirms that with his post today.

[Ruzious]

Before the season started, everyone said he was a lock top 5 pick. I even asked - could that change from his play before the draft and was told by folks here that it's extremely unlikely. Boo on you guys. It sounds like he's not worthy of a top 5 pick. And unless he's real close to the top 5, you gotsta go BPA, imo. That's unfortunate - I was excited about the small possibility of getting him, and now... meh.

[QBsILLEST1]

You gotta look at this kids track record. Its not like 2008 he came out of no where. He had been pretty consistently a good hitting short stop for a while. Had a good 08, a good cape cod league showing and is still showing the ability to hit well. He IMO went into such a bad funk, probably the worse funk(slump) he had ever had. Under so much pressure he is just trying to put the bat on the ball, he probably went back to basics and isnt worrying about driving the ball as hard as possible. IMO he still isnt seeing the ball as well as he should, or else hed be hitting with more power. I took this idea from Allstar on the other thread and to me it makes sense, moreso than any other theory. This kid has projectability like a HS SS does. He is rail thin and will be putting on some muscle as he progresses. Also he is a bit undisciplined at the plate. He does have a lot of work ahead of him for him to become a good major league SS, but he has the tools, the frame, the ability and the raw power to do so, the O's organization just needs to do their job with devloping him if we take him at 1:5. But like I said, I think he will need almost as much seasoning as Devin Marrero, or any other HS SS......

[JTrea81]

He does have a lot of work ahead of him for him to become a good major league SS, but he has the tools, the frame, the ability and the raw power to do so, the O's organization just needs to do their job with devloping him if we take him at 1:5. But like I said, I think he will need almost as much seasoning as Devin Marrero, or any other HS SS......

And this is exactly why we shouldn't pick him as this organization is pretty lousy at developing toolsy players...

We are much better at developing pitchers, than we are position players. Thus if Ackley isn't there at #5, we need a HS pitcher with a high ceiling such as Matzek or Purke.

[JTrea81]

You hear a lot of similar arguements against Green, that people used for G.Beckham last year.... now Beckham was crushing college pitching, but lots of people were saying his bat would not play professionally, and the scouts were split on his ability to stay at SS.

I would be thrilled if the O's have the ability to draft Green with the 5th pick.

Isn't Beckham going to play 2B for the WS? So concerns about being able to stay at the position seem legit.

[jcroemer]

None of the above. Draft for the best player available, not for need.

A-men!!!!

Andy MacPhail says it best - "We're going to grow arms and buy bats"

There are too many question marks surrounding Green. Draft a good arm, develop it, and then trade it for proven MLB-ready prospects. The Cleveland Indians might be the best at this (especially now that they may want to move Cliff Lee). We have a wave of talent coming and I wouldn't mind a few Top 5 ptiching draftees in the pipeline.

[allstar1579]

And this is exactly why we shouldn't pick him as this organization is pretty lousy at developing toolsy players...

We are much better at developing pitchers, than we are position players. Thus if Ackley isn't there at #5, we need a HS pitcher with a high ceiling such as Matzek or Purke.

Green is far from a "toolsy" player. A toolsy player is someone like Hoes, who has one or two excellent "tools" like speed, and then you try to fit him in somewhere to make him work for you. Green is much more solid than that.

Isn't Beckham going to play 2B for the WS? So concerns about being able to stay at the position seem legit.

And no, Beckham is still at SS and has no problem staying there. The questions was with Ramirez at SS if they needed to move Becks to 2b/3b to get them both in the lineup.

[QBsILLEST1]

And this is exactly why we shouldn't pick him as this organization is pretty lousy at developing toolsy players...

We are much better at developing pitchers, than we are position players. Thus if Ackley isn't there at #5, we need a HS pitcher with a high ceiling such as Matzek or Purke.

I didnt mean that he is a toolsy ball player. I meant that he has the tools(ability) to succeed and become a good power hitting SS with fairly good range. He has a few specific things he must improve, but the power will come on its own. If he can just develop some plate discipline, he could become what we originally projected from him, a Longoria/Tulo clone with out as good of a glove and maybe not quite as much power.....

[Stotle]

You gotta look at this kids track record. Its not like 2008 he came out of no where. He had been pretty consistently a good hitting short stop for a while. Had a good 08, a good cape cod league showing and is still showing the ability to hit well. He IMO went into such a bad funk, probably the worse funk(slump) he had ever had. Under so much pressure he is just trying to put the bat on the ball, he probably went back to basics and isnt worrying about driving the ball as hard as possible. IMO he still isnt seeing the ball as well as he should, or else hed be hitting with more power. I took this idea from Allstar on the other thread and to me it makes sense, moreso than any other theory. This kid has projectability like a HS SS does. He is rail thin and will be putting on some muscle as he progresses. Also he is a bit undisciplined at the plate. He does have a lot of work ahead of him for him to become a good major league SS, but he has the tools, the frame, the ability and the raw power to do so, the O's organization just needs to do their job with devloping him if we take him at 1:5. But like I said, I think he will need almost as much seasoning as Devin Marrero, or any other HS SS......

Do you really think Green will take the same amount of time to develop as a HSer? If so, why would you draft him over a HSer who will be three years younger at the same time each reaches the Majors?

[Stotle]

Green is far from a "toolsy" player. A toolsy player is someone like Hoes, who has one or two excellent "tools" like speed, and then you try to fit him in somewhere to make him work for you. Green is much more solid than that.

I don't think of Hoes when I think "toolsy"; did you mean Avery? Hoes has no real tool that sticks out from the others. Average to slightly above across the board? Atleast, that's what I've seen.

[QBsILLEST1]

Do you really think Green will take the same amount of time to develop as a HSer? If so, why would you draft him over a HSer who will be three years younger at the same time each reaches the Majors?

No I dont, hence the reason I said almost. He is a very raw college hitter though, he has weaknesses about him that I wouldnt necessarily expect from an elite college position player. So he will need a bit more devlopmental time than a Smoak or a G.Beckham would have. He definately has some kinks to work out. I wouldnt expect him to be in the majors in 2 years max like most would expect from a top 5 position talent from college. I believe it was you that preaches about not having to spend as much money on developing a college player compared to a HS player, but in this case he will be needing almost as much development as an advanced HS position player.

[crawdad]

No I dont, hence the reason I said almost. He is a very raw college hitter though, he has weaknesses about him that I wouldnt necessarily expect from an elite college position player. So he will need a bit more devlopmental time than a Smoak or a G.Beckham would have. He definately has some kinks to work out. I wouldnt expect him to be in the majors in 2 years max like most would expect from a top 5 position talent from college. I believe it was you that preaches about not having to spend as much money on developing a college player compared to a HS player, but in this case he will be needing almost as much development as an advanced HS position player.

So what are his weaknesses or kinks that need work on, specifically?